Survey USA: In ARKANSAS, Bush 47, Kerry 45 for likely voters

[mobuto]

This is looking awful close. And anywhere in the South, including Arkansas, close is good.

President, AR 04/16/2004

Bush (R) 47%
Kerry (D) 45%
Other/Undecided 8%
Data Collected
4/14/04 - 4/15/04

Geography
State of Arkansas

Sample Population
565 Likely Voters

Margin of Error
4.2%

Client
KTHV-TV Little Rock

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[Qutzupalotl]

1. Not bad.

It's early yet, and if Kerry chooses a certain native son as his VP, it's a wrap!

[MoonRiver]

3. I'll

:kick: to that!

[UrbScotty]

4. Or native daughter, if it's you-know-who-else.

:-)

[R3dD0g]

22. She's not native.

She's adopted.

[Hippo_Tron]

18. Unfortunately the constitution forbids it

But there's another native son who also happens to be a four star general that is quite qualified for the VP spot.

[UrbScotty]

2. One good thing about polls

Polls show that a race is no foregone conclusion.

[boobooday]

5. We just need a couple of states to switch

To the winning side. :-)

http://www.wgoeshome.com

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Actually, we only need one

Any state with four or more electoral votes + Gore states will win us the election. However, I don't think the election will come down to Gore states + NH for Kerry. I think that Kerry will either win with a few swing states or Bush will take it by a small margain.

[UrbScotty]

32. Actually, we'd need 10 votes from 'Bush States.'

The Gore states, worth 267 votes in 2000, will only be worth 260 in 2004, due to the 2000 Census.

Arizona, Missouri, Florida, and Tennessee are all Bush states with ten or more electoral votes.

[Nightjock]

6. To quote the..

...great Homer Simpson........"Woo-HOO!"

Anything close is going to Kerry because the pollsters cannot factor in the non voting motivated people who WILL vote this time.
Just look at the Dem primaries.

[senseandsensibility]

7. Good news, definitely

but it looks like Nader is cutting into Kerry. Too bad the undecided/other isn't broken down; I wouder exactly how much Nader is pulling.

[skooooo]

8. Do we know that Nader will be on the ballot everywhere??

I heard that he won't even make it in some states. Anyone have more details?

[NewJerseyDem]

10. That's true

Some election laws make it very dificult to gain ballot status in certain states. So, without the support of the Green party and its ballot status in some states, he is unlikely to get on the ballot everywhere. I don't know what states he has gotten onto the ballot yet but it is still early.

[Jane Austin]

16. Anybody know how Nader is doing in Texas

regarding getting on the ballot?

Thanks.

[NewJerseyDem]

28. The deadline is May 10th

Apparently, he needs the signatures of 65,000 registered voters who didn't vote in the republican or democratic party. So, it is believed that he will not be able to get onto the ballot there because it is too difficult.

[R3dD0g]

23. He will have a difficult if not impossible task

to get on the Arkansas ballot as an independent or write in.

Us Arkies aren't too welcoming to outsider pols.

[mobuto]

11. Nader in Arkansas?

I find it hard to believe that Nader will do all that well in Arkansas, even if he somehow makes it onto the ballot.

[Adelante]

34. The full poll results (.pdf)

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

[Leilani]

9. Arkansas is winnable

with the RIGHT veep!

So is West Virginia, where love of military is a huge factor, & would be winnable with that same veep!

Go Wes!

[LonelyLRLiberal]

12. I consider those numbers astounding . . .

especially since our statewide paper, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (a/k/a the DOG), is pro Repuke to the point of being sickening. Not to mention the fact that this is a state filled with religious nut-cases who think anything you do is fine, as long as you are a "good, God-fearing Christian." Case in point - our Baptist Reverend-Gov. Huckabee (Repuke, natch).

[DaveSZ]

13. I think Wes Clark could put us over the top

He's a native son.

:P

[skooooo]

14. I don't think Kerry will pick Clark...

..cause he doesn't have much political experience.

[R3dD0g]

24. Huck a buck is in serious trouble out in the sticks.

His consolidation push, the increased taxes to pay for it and now the commutation of sentences is taking a mighty toll on his popularity.

* should not expect Huck-a-buck to push him over 50%. They weren't even together down at ElDo last week, were they?

[fujiyama]

15. Wow

I'm impressed. I never thought Arkansas would be quite this close. I'm thinkin' a certain former general may actually help carry the state after all...and this is a state I never really seriously considered that Kerry might do well in.

[Thrill]

17. Ark and LA should

be democratic. If you're going to spend money in the south spend it in those two states. Both have two Democratic Senators. The last thing Bush wants is Edwards as VP down there talking about how he was "the son of a mill worker, and he knows what it feels like."

Thats Rove's worst nightmare.

[R3dD0g]

25. Arkansas is really pretty liberal to libertarian.

We had a bad experience with reactionary conservatism a few years back, you might have heard about it. Central High and the 82nd Airborne?

[David Zephyr]

20. Which Is Why Wes Clark Would Be Kerry's Best Pick.

n/t

[R3dD0g]

21. The poll I saw reported today

had * at 50.9, Kerry at 42 something and Nader at around 6%.

That's pretty good that * was only slightly above 50. Listening to the call in shows, reading the ltte, etc I would have thought the lying little deserter was a lot higher, high 50s at least.

An Arkansas State University poll shows President Bush leading Democratic candidate John Kerry by 50.9 percent to 42.5 percent among Arkansans. Independent candidate Ralph Nader got 6.6 percent.http://www.ardemgaz.com/ShowStoryTemplate.asp?Path=ArDemocrat/2004/04/16&ID=Ar01700&Section=Arkansas

[sandnsea]

26. Nader voters in AR?

You have to fill me in on that one. My family lives in Arkansas and frankly, I'm not seeing it. Razorbacks for Nader? What's the deal?

[yelladawg]

27. Ark will vote Kerry

Clark and Clinton will make sure of that. Arkansas went with bush last time. This time it is a battleground state.

[R3dD0g]

31. Arkansas went * last time because Gore

listened to the goddamned media in DC who kept harping on how unpopular Clinton was. If Gore had ignored those blow dried bastards he would've won Arkansas for sure, Louisiana probably and had a good chance at those lunatics in Tennessee.

[Bread and Circus]

29. Add Wes Clark to the ticket, and bang...you gots the hearts

and minds of many Southern, pro-military types.

He's awesome as well.

[Auntie Bush]

30. With WES CLARK on the ticket...Kerry would win Arkansas

in a heartbeat. They'd love to have a native son on the ticket.

He would bring Louisiana along too.

Clark would be Carl Rove's worst nightmare!

[Adelante]

33. Good?

That's fucking great! :7

[Adelante]

35. Military vote

Bush 47%
Kerry 44%

This is hot!