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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:15 AM
Original message
****Official Wyoming Caucus Thread****
I figured it might be good to have one thread today dedicated to news, updates etc from Wyoming. We really don't know how this Democratic electorate is gonna vote/caucus today. The MSM says it will go for Obama but that is an assumption not really based on any concrete past experience.

Please discuss.
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alteredstate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
1. Kicked n/t
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Atman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
2. Is it open, or just for Democrats?
If it's open, I'd expect a heavy turnout of R's for Hillary. There aren't that many Dems in Wyoming to begin with. I'm sure the Republicans would love to muck it up further for us by helping to keep Clinton strung along.

.
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Nitrogenica Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. If they're righties I think they had to register as Democrats by
February 22nd, so this may not have the impact that Rush had in Texas.
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goldcanyonaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. Dick Morris instructed Repugs to vote Obama in TX. Guess thems good Repugs then, right?
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. And Rush Limbaugh who has an audience several thousand times
larger than Morris' instructed repugs to vote for Hillary. But we know you just love repugs and prefer McCain to Obama, like all good hillbots.
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goldcanyonaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #11
17. Cali, no proof would ever satisfy you, you're one of the most hardened shills around here.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #17
40. Actually, unlike you and your unfettered adulation for dear hill
I have plenty of problems with my candidate. You are the one twisting and shilling with every breath, dear. You can't address anything with even a scintilla of honesty. It's all Obama bad, Hillary a saint with hillbots like you. I don't even know if you'll vote for Obama if he's the nominee. I, of course, have made it perfectly clear that I'll vote for Hill if she is.

You're engaged in classic projection. And you avoided my point about Limbaugh- but not adroitly.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. Its one thing to spend a few minutes and vote in a cross over
its quite another to actually go to a caucus and stand up in front of your friends that all know you and do it.

Therefore I do not expect Republicans to go to a caucus and vote in large numbers.

There maybe some Republicans who sincerely want Obama to be the nominee and will show up.
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goldcanyonaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. Yeah, Repugs can cross over and vote for Obama.
But, they're are cuddly friends when they vote for him.
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Windy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Wow... unreal. There is a lot of data out there that the Rush factor put HRC over the top in Texas
not the reverse.

And that fact that you can support this self serving power hungry scorched earth policy monster and yes, that is what she is speaks volumes for your character!

This election should be about the issues, not win at all costs.

Funny, even with counting florida, Obama is still up in pledged delegates and with consideration to superdelegate and is still up in the popular vote. In other words, he's winning. Try and get your head around that one. Despite her gutter tactics and the tactics of the right wing, he is still on top!!!

REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2008
Democrats Obama Clinton
Total Delegates 1581 1460
Pledged Delegates 1371 1218
Popular Vote 13,000,655 12,411,705
Popular Vote (w/FL) 13,576,869 13,282,691

http://www.realclearpolitics.com /

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rosetta627 Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #12
26. 'Cept that Obama won TX, not Hillary
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
3. When will we know the outcome? Luckily, Wyoming has a population smaller than Salt Lake.
So it shouldn't take too long to get the results.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. I saw that the last polls there close 6 pm ET
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. So 4 here? Lame, I wanted results soon.
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. We should get some for specific caucuses earlier.
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 11:38 AM by Pirate Smile
There are 23 county caucuses.

Convening at 8amPST / 9MST / 10CST / 11EST:
Albany 25 delegates
Fremont (til 1pm MST) 23 delegates
Goshen (til noon MST) 7 delegates
Laramie 55 delegates
Natrona - 43 delegates
Sublette 4 delegates
Uinta 11 delegates
Total 168 delegates

Convening at 8:30amPST / 9:30MST / 10:30CST / 11:30EST:
Hot Springs (til noon MST) 4 delegates
Niobrara 1 delegate
Total 5 delegates

Convening at 9amPST / 10MST / 11CST / noonEST:
Campbell (til 4pm MST) 17 delegates
Carbon (til 2pm MST) 10 delegates
Converse 7 delegates
Crook 4 delegates
Park 16 delegates
Platte 6 delegates
Sweetwater 24 delegates
Washakie 5 delegates
Total 89 delegates

Convening at 10amPST / 11MST / noonCST / 1EST:
Lincoln 8 delegates
Total 8 delegates

Convening at 1pmPST / 2MST / 3CST / 4EST:
Big Horn 6 delegates
Johnson 4 delegates
Sheridan (til 6pm MST) 18 delegates
Weston 4 delegates
Total 32 delegates

Convening at 3pmPST / 4MST / 5CST / 6EST:
Teton 17 delegates
Total 17 delegates

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1776Forever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #9
36. Hi Irishman! Always good to see you on the board!
:hi:
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. Are you sure it is 6 EST, not 6 MST?
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Cant trust em Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
5. Obama's assumed win is based on past results in the campaign
He's done better in smaller caucus states that have been tinged with red. Such has been the pattern.
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
7. Here is a great thread loaded with info here:
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Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #7
14. Here is a great thread on this at Daily Kos -
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. wow thanks - that has some additional info that I was not aware of
especially about the add on
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
19. early reporting shows O 57% to HRC 41%, with 26% reporting
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
20. kick
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
21. Why does Faux say 30% is in already? Oh-and Obama is winning 58%-40%.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Some news agencies get it faster than others.
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 12:08 PM by Zachstar
Tho I hope Obama can maintain a 60-40 lead. Let us hope this continues to grow for Obama!
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. Thanks, but now I think they mean it's re: just one set of caucuses (I think they have 4 different
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 12:17 PM by jenmito
caucus times/closings) because next to the results (it's only 451 votes to 311 votes) it says, "Next polls close: [in over four hours)
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
22. According to Slate Calculator, if we can get up to 63%; we can net +4 delegates. nm
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #22
29. the slate calculator is only a rough guess and it has nothing to do
with caucuses. I emailed them about it and I was surprised when they emailed back. They acknowledged that on a state by state basis the calculator will not be very accurate but over many states it will only vary by about 2%
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
23. You know what's so amazing to me?
Watching the results come in now. Now Obama's ahead 58% to 40%.

I just flashed back to the MSNBC video with the predictions of the Obama camp.

Back right around Super Tuesday #1, they predicted Obama would win 60% to 40%. Back in early Feb!

I cannot believe how accurate they have been. It's amazing to me.
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rosetta627 Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
25. Thanks for starting the thread stop the bleeding
Here we go all over again.
Hope there's no diebold over there.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. its a caucus no diebold possible
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rosetta627 Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. Doh! Silly me. Thanks.
Guess they'll have to cheat TX style.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
31. Now it's 56% to 42% with 35% reporting. n/t
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
32. NOTE: The Kos diary linked to earlier says the %s being reported are not relevant.
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 12:48 PM by jefferson_dem
This is definitely the best site i've seen, for those of us looking to make sense of what's happening and what it means.

...

Here ---> http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/8/61411/81462/867/...

Again, the 59-41 numbers you are seeing after 7 counties have reported are NOT the relevant numbers. The relevant numbers are the number of delegates each county sends to the state convention. Right now Obama has 62.8% of the delegates apportioned to the state convention - not 59%... this is an important distinction that most seem to be missing...

Looks like CNN is the best place to figure this out - you have to scroll your mouse over the Wyoming map of counties with 100% reporting. Then drop uncommitted votes below 15%, then figure out what Obama's Votes/(Obama's Votes + Clinton's Votes) is, multiplied by the number of state delegates for the county.

Niobrara (1): Obama 0.5, Clinton 0.5!
Crook (4): Obama 2, Clinton 2
Goshen (7): goes Obama 3.5, Clinton 3.5 (per state party site, strange)
Hot Springs (4): looks like Obama 2, Clinton 1, Uncommitted 1
Sublette(4) : Obama 3, Clinton 1
Uinta (11): Obama 8, Clinton 3
Campbell (17): Obama 11, Clinton 6 (JUST over the 10.5 threshold! Excellent work, wmandevi!)

Running Total (48 of 319 in): Obama 30, Clinton 17, Uncommitted 1

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/8/61411/81462/867/...
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. Fantastic Info! Really important point to understand today. Thanks. n/t
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. thanks, thats a great breakdown on the current county by county
situation
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. Nice! Just jumped to 66 O, 33 C
That's what I want to see!
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
37. (O) 66% - (C )33%
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. with 43% of the vote in
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1776Forever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #37
41. This % pay out was on KOS -
If Obama wins by 75% or higher: Obama +7
If Obama wins by 64%-74%: Obama +5
If Obama wins by 50%-63%: Obama +3
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #37
43. holy shit!!! gobama!
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #37
53. 58-41
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
38. Looking good on Intrade, Obama fans. He's at 95 to win and going up still.
Hillary is a 2% to win and plummeting.

If you're into the markets... http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
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1776Forever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #38
44. That is really neat - If you have the time how much does one share cost for Obama?
:hi:
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #38
46. Do you know what the numbers started at before today? n/t
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #46
54. If I recall, it was like 92-8(ish).
Hillary didn't have too far to fall before she hit the floor...

For what it's worth, Obama is at 95% in MS too.

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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #54
60. Great! Thanks for the reply.
:hi:
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #54
63. It's worth a lot! Thanx. n/g
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yellerpup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
42. Kick this!
Keep it coming.
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Madam Mossfern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #42
47. While I'm glad, I will caution my fellow Obama supporters not to gloat
I know how I felt when Hillary won her states and some of her supporters gloated. I will not do that.

OK, so I'm the one who can't stand to watch the losing team's locker room interviews in sport.
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yellerpup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. I'm kicking this thread to keep it visible.
"Keep it coming" refers to the voting information and statistics. How do you get gloating from that? Just asking...
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Madam Mossfern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #48
59. I'm not saying that you're gloating
I was just trying to preempt and gloating that may happen. Sorry if I confused you.
I get F- in communication skills. :(
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yellerpup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #59
62. Aw, don't beat yourself up over that.
Thanks for clarifying. You ain't even close to F-.... :hug:
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
45. CNN said that the Cheyenne caucus had to take a lunch break since the
turn out was so huge

A LUNCH BREAK TO VOTE???? that might be a first
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #45
49. I thought I heard Fox said that 2500 had come to a caucus that they
had expected 500
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. CNN reporting it now nt
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:30 PM
Response to Original message
51. who else still needs to report?
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #51
52. here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/stat...


scroll down to map and hold mouse over county(s)
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
55. O58% H41% with 70% reporting
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. I like! Wish he could get it up to 65%, but a 17 point blowout is nice.
Especially since she campaigned there!
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
57. Kick
:kick:
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
58. CNN still not calling it for Obama even though
70% is in.
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #58
61. Obama: 59% - Clinton: 40% 78% in...
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rainbow4321 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #58
65. Pretty safe to say they will put all their news people in the HRC-won counties
and not go near Obama-won counties.

I can hear it now: "and in the county with ONE delegate up for grabs: 10 people voted for HRC and 10 voted for Obama..WHAT will Obama do NOW???????"
And, yes, that is how the 1 delegate county broke down in votes according to the CNN interactive map).
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caseycoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
64. Kick n/t
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 03:09 PM
Response to Original message
66. Kick
:kick:
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clevbot Donating Member (357 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #66
68. Obama is
just adding to his pledged delegate lead, that will not be overturned by the supers. Hillary should drop out soon.
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Voice for Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
67. kick
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 03:22 PM
Response to Original message
69. O59% H40% with 78% reporting
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caseycoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
70. Kick again :o)
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