Someone explain to me how Hillary wins the nomination, then goes on to win in the general.

[Meldread]

At this point in time, I do not think anyone doubts that this nominating process is going to go all the way to Denver. However, I am confused. I need someone to explain to me how Hillary plans to win the nomination, and then go on to win in the general election.

First, even if she wins all of the remaining states, which even they admit will not happen, she will not catch up in either the number of pledged delegates.

Second, because she cannot win all of the remaining states by huge margins she will not catch up in total number of total state victories nor is it likely that she will catch up in terms of the popular vote.

So going into the convention, she is going to be behind Obama in total number of pledged delegates, total number of state-wide victories and behind in the popular vote. If this is the case what claim at all does she have to the nomination?

It is true that the super delegates could flip this race. They could go against the will of the majority of the states, they could go against the will of the delegates, and they could go against the will of the people. However, if this happens then how does she win the General Election?

At this point in time her supportive words of John McCain and her situation has basically turned her into a Mike Huckabee. Mathematically speaking she has no claim to the nomination, though she shambles onward, attacking our presumptive nominee and therefore weakening our parties chances to win the General Election.

We have gone through this same situation before - it happened back in 2000 when the Supreme Court appointed George W. Bush President of the United States. If Hillary becomes the nominee after losing the popular vote, the majority of states, the pledged delegate count, and wins only by the fiat of the Super Delegates then how does she go on to win in the General Election?

Here is one fact that has not been raised: Hillary Clinton should have won the nomination easily. She is the most well known woman in the United States and she has most of the establishment support. Going into this she had more cash as well - she was basically the presumptive nominee from the onset. Yet, an upstart, a guy who was practically unknown to the majority of Democratic Voters came out and defeated her in state after state. He defeated her in fundraising. He defeated her in the delegate count, and he defeated her in the popular vote. Her own party - a party which should be favorable to her - has said: Given a choice between you and someone else, I went with someone else. She needs these people who have already decided to go with someone else to side with her in a general election, but if she wins the way she wants to she has no hope of winning these people over - myself included. If her last name was not Clinton she would not still be in this race.

So, someone needs to explain this to slow folks like myself: How does Hillary win the Democratic Nomination and then go on to win in a General Election?

[papau]

1. asked and answered the few times you posted this - LOL - you don't like the answers?

[DemBones DemBones]

4. That seems to be happening a lot lately.

Hey, have the rules changed or is it still the way it always was: delegates are only required to vote for the candidate they're pledged to on the first ballot at the convention? I think we're going to see more than one ballot this year, don't you?

[Maven]

7. I think it's almost guaranteed.

But a lot of people here don't seem to even understand how the nominating process works.

[Meldread]

13. Do you understand how a general election works?

Because you've yet to explain how Hillary wins the nomination and then goes on to win the General Election. After all, that is our GOAL - to win the White House in November.

[Maven]

14. Tell me how Obama wins the G.E. by wooing the wine & cheese crowd

and not winning working people in states like OH and FL we have to win?

Do you really think he's gonna win a G.E. by taking ND?

[Meldread]

23. He won here just fine in my state - Virginia.

However, this is not about Obama. This is about Clinton. Obama is irrelevant to this equation because he could just as easily be John Edwards or some other person. What we are looking at are the facts facing Hillary at this moment in time:

1. She has virtually no chance of beating him in the Popular Vote.
2. She has virtually no chance in overcoming his pledged delegate lead.
3. She has virtually no chance of winning more states than him.

By staying in the race at this point she is putting the party's chances in November in jeopardy. Even though Obama is ahead in all three of the critical categories I just pointed out, he still requires the Super Delegates to put him over the top. By staying in this race she is forcing the Super Delegates to choose our nominee, and in doing so she causes alienation to one side or another. If the Super Delegates side with Obama - even though he is for all intents and purposes the rightful nominee - there is a risk it could alienate some of her supporters. They could see it as Obama unfairly winning the nomination (I don't know how, but I am certain there are some out there who will see it that way). If the Super Delegates elect Hillary, there WILL be some Obama supporters (perhaps even most) who see this as her stealing the nomination.

That is not even getting into the fact, that throughout this entire process, both candidates are sniping back and forth at one another while the Republicans rally around their nominee. We spend ourselves into oblivion trying to defeat another Democratic Candidate, while John McCain slowly catches up in fundraising. Finally, an election that we should have won easily becomes an uphill battle as our nominee - no matter who it is - is bleeding from a thousand cuts inflicted by their Democratic Opponent. On top of that, because we spent so much time fighting ourselves our nominee has already been defined by the Republican's.

Our goal is to win the White House. To do that we must defeat the Republican - John McCain. If Hillary manages to get the Super Delegates together and steal the nomination from Obama, against the will of the people, against the majority of the states, and against the majority of pledged delegates, then how does she go on to defeat John McCain?

[Maven]

28. No, you still don't understand how delegates work at a convention.

There may be several ballots and the outcome may have little to do with superdelegates alone. Having a few more pledged delegates going into a convention, without reaching the required number, does not entitle any candidate to the nomination.

That's why I linked to that article.

[Timefortruth]

19. Her strategy for the nomination

is to over rule the electorate? No doubt that it is legal, but she thinks this will be a winner in November?

[Maven]

21. Overrule the electorate?

She's won pretty much all of the biggest states.

And let's be honest, Obama racked up his current delegate leads by pouring money into caucuses in small states where Clinton couldn't afford to compete and had basically zero presence.

[Meldread]

6. If you have a different answer, you're free to share.

Otherwise, you're free to continue supporting the individual who is killing our parties chances in November, and supporting our enemy by claiming that he has more claim to the Presidency than our presumptive nominee.

[Radical Activist]

2. Well thought out post. She doesn't.

Hillary Clinton will never be President and if Democrats want to win in November then we need to pick a different nominee.

[Maven]

3. For the last time, NEITHER of them has enough delegates to win the nomination

Are you getting that? NEITHER of them. Having 100 more pledged delegates doesn't automatically mean you get the nomination.

Please read this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4905660

[DJ13]

10. NEITHER of them has enough delegates to win the nomination

And yesterday changed that in what way?

This WILL be decided by the party, but they had better consider which candidate has the strongest independant appeal for the GE, and also which candidate has been bringing newly registered Democrats into the party.

If they select Hillary, they will be telling those independants and newly registered Democrats "sorry, we want to continue being the party of DC insiders".

Oh and Hillary's PR that she's "won the big states" doesnt wash, as she wins big states that will be Democratic in the GE no matter which candidate is the nominee.

[557188]

20. Obama means McCain wins Ohio

Ohio goes blue with Hillary

So your post is wrong.

[Meldread]

27. Obama can win Ohio against McCain, but even if he doesn't...

...there are other states he can flip that Hillary cannot. Virginia, my state, being among them. If he wins Virginia and another small state then Florida and/or Ohio becomes irrelevant.

[Maven]

29. LOL.

You really are new.

[Meldread]

33. I'm not new.

I've been here on DU since 2002.

If you do not think he can win Virginia then you obviously do not know a thing about the state. Considering that I live here, and considering that he eradicated Hillary among her base in this state, I can tell you with certainty that he has a very good chance of picking up my state in November. Hillary has no chance at all.

[Maven]

37. That would be the first time since 1964.

It's very unlikely and banking on it as an "alternate" to OH or FL would be unbelievably stupid.

Let's hope Obama is not that foolish or naive if he gets the nod. Problem is, I think it's obvious he wouldn't carry OH or FL in the general. That's bad news.

[Meldread]

40. That is ridiculous.

I know for a fact that if Obama spent time in Virginia that he could carry it easily in the General Election. You obviously do not know the politics of Virginia. After all there was a reason why he blew Hillary out of the water here. It wasn't an accident.

Hillary can claim her big state victories all she wants - Obama will win New York. He will win California. Doubting that is stupid. He can also win Ohio and Florida as well.

The real question is this: If Hillary steals the nomination then can she win in traditionally Democratic States as Obama supporters refuse to vote for her and/or vote for Nader or McCain out of spite? You do realize that Ralph Nader will play an even bigger role against Hillary than he did against Gore, correct? He will prey upon the fact that Hillary stole the nomination, and disenfranchised Obama voters will support him. Unlike in the Primaries, it only takes one vote to tip the General Election. Unless Hillary plans to go to the Supreme Court and get the will of the voters overturned, she has no chance of winning the general.

[Meldread]

11. So votes don't count unless they are for Hillary?

I was always under the impression that as long as you won by one vote then you win the election. After all, that's how our system works. If Obama has won more of the popular vote, even by just one vote, and he has won more states and he has won more pledged delegates, then what valid CLAIM does Hillary have to the nomination? Then, based on the assumption that the Super Delegates support her (which I do not believe will happen) how does she go on to win the General Election?

At this point, the way I see things, Hillary is only hurting our presumptive nominee. Her staying in the race at this point, with mathematically no probability of winning it, is the literal equivalent of Mike Huckabee sticking in the race on the Republican side. The only difference is that Mike Huckabee wasn't saying the other side was more qualified to be President, and was not damaging the parties chances in November.

[Maven]

18. Again, read the link. The delegate race is not an "election" in itself.

The candidate who wins marginally more delegates but not enough to win the nomination does not automatically get the nom.

[Meldread]

25. You are still overlooking the two other claims he has:

Going into the convention here is the scenario:

1. He has more pledged delegates.
2. He has won the popular vote.
3. He has won more states.

It is more than simply delegates, Harvey, she has to literally overturn the popular vote and go against the will of the majority of the states.

[Maven]

26. The process isn't over yet.

She just won two big states. She could overtake him in the popular vote and narrow his delegate lead to an even more marginal number. We still don't know what will happen with MI and FL.

Meanwhile, Dems continue to get tons of free press going into November.

The fact is, died in the wool Democrats are voting for her and want her to stay in the race. Until one of them reaches 2025, she should absolutely stay in.

[Meldread]

30. She has the right to stay in - I am not saying she should get out.

I believe it would be better for the party and our chances in November if she got out, but I am not saying she should get out. She has to make the decision herself. However, she also has to live with the consequences of that decision, and should she cost Obama the general election or should she lose the general election by stealing the nomination, you better believe that it is going to be hung around her neck for the rest of her days. She is running that risk at this moment in time.

You have still not answered how she goes on to win the General Election under the scenario where she loses the popular vote, the pledged delegates and the support of the majority of states.

[Maven]

32. Easy. Because many of the states Obama has won will never go to a Democrat

in the G.E.

That is why Obama's wins don't portend a G.E. win for him by any means either.

[RiverStone]

15. If the SD's go against the will of the popular vote...

We would lose the GE.

We may lose our majority on The Hill.

And 1/3 or more of Dem voters would walk away from the party in disgust.

Too many still remember how the SCOTUS stole the 2000 election when Gore had 1/2 a million more in the popular vote. Dem leaders simply will not let that scenario ever happen again.


On Edit: currently Obama leads the popular vote nationally by about 600K

[Independent-Voter]

5. Easy - she doesn't. HRC will have no Independent support, and will bring out the Pub voters in

droves. I'm amazed the some people think she's a viable candidate. The numbers simply aren't there.

[yourout]

9. Amen.......guarenteed 10 point loss and down ticket disaster.

[Yael]

8. She doesn't and she won't

She will leave this party as an ash heap and we will inaugurate President McCain in January 2009.

[progdog]

34. Yael is correct.

[Apollo11]

12. By offering Obama the VP spot plus a smooth handover in 2012

Especially as national polls are starting to show that Hillary has a better chance of beating McCain in November.

[Meldread]

16. Why in the world would Obama accept that?

We know how Al Gore was treated in the White House under Bill Clinton. To say that Obama would be a third wheel would be an understatement. He has no reason to accept the VP slot, nor should he under any circumstances. Having Hillary as President will effectively damage whatever hopes he might have in the future of becoming President.

[Apollo11]

24. Hillary will fix the economy and healthcare

Then Obama can take over and reap the rewards of Hillary's hard work! B-)

[scheming daemons]

36. A) Hillary wouldn't make that one-term promise... B)She wouldn't keep it if she did make it...

...

[eggman67]

39. You mean 2016

There's no way she'd settle for one term.

[FogerRox]

17. DIdnt HRC need 57% ?

Of the 370 delegates in play tuesday, HRC needed 57%, thats 211., she got about 52%, 191 delegates.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

22. RE: Someone explain to me...

1) The same way Obama wins the nomination: back room negotiations with super delegates that leads to the magic number.

2) The same way Gore wins the nomination: 2ed ballot all delegates are free to vote as they please.

To be honest I think both of them are going to have a hard time in the GE, especially if Florida and Michigan are not apologized to and represented.

[VotesForWomen]

31. clue to meldread: GE voters are not the same as dem primary voters. nt

[BlueManDude]

35. isn't that his point?

[Meldread]

38. That is an ignorant statement.

Are you saying that Democratic Primary Voters do not vote in a General Election? You do realize that those who participate in primaries are MUCH more likely to vote for the same candidate in the General Election, correct? You do also realize that Hillary's hope of winning the nomination rests on the shoulders of the Democratic Party, in particular the base, because she is loathed among Republicans and Independents, correct?