Obama's Delegate Bomb

[bigbrother05]

link http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/archive/2008/03/04/obama-s-delegate-bomb.aspx

Obama’s Delegate Bomb
The 2008 presidential race has seen some creative campaign strategies, most notably the infamous Ron Paul money bomb. But if Tom Brokaw is correct, the Obama campaign may have something else up its sleeve: a superdelegate bomb.

This morning, Brokaw told Joe Scarborough on MSNBC that someone "very close to the Obama campaign" told him they have 50 endorsers "ready to go public" with their support. Presumably, this would be Obama's coup de grace after March 4.

Here’s how it might work. The likeliest of scenarios today is a split decision: Clinton wins Ohio, Obama wins Texas. In which case, expect spin chaos. Obama’s people will point to the overall pledged delegate count. The Clinton camp will direct your attention to the popular votes and claim the Texas caucus doesn’t matter.


But the Obama campaign has two secret weapons: money and superdelegates. On the money front, the Obama campaign can finally reveal its February fundraising totals. Clinton announced last week that she had raised $35 million that month; estimates put Obama’s number somewhere north of $50 million. But they’ve waited to announce it, presumably because they wanted to get the timing just right.

After unveiling the cash, send in the superdelegates. Since Super Tuesday, Obama has netted a total of more than 36 new superdelegates, whereas Clinton has lost six. (They continued to trickle Obama-ward today.) If today’s contests are tight, all eyes will turn to superdelegates for guidance on who’s winning. Normally, it matters who's doing the endorsing. But, at this point, big names like Al Gore and Jimmy Carter won’t endorse until a candidate is locked in. Same with party leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean, who don’t benefit from choosing sides. So it’s not about who endorses butabout how many people do. Were the Obama campaign to drop a 50-ton superdelegate bomb on the Clinton campaign’s head the day after a tie, it’s not hard to see where momentum would swing.

Combined with the moneybomb, the superdelegate bomb could decide the race. But like any bomb, it’s something you don’t use unless you have to. To that end, the Obama campaign might have leaked the news to Brokaw to try to scare Hillary into dropping out. That way, she would avoid an embarrassing exodus of superdelegates. But if the threat doesn’t work, and the results of March 4 are close, Obama will waste no time in pushing the red button.

Published Tuesday, March 04, 2008 3:32 PM by Christopher Beam

[blocker]

1. If thats the case

IT'S HUGE!!!!!

[speedoo]

2. Very intersting. Very plausible. nt

[geiger]

3. and she'll be running to her red phone. the end.

[mmonk]

34. So that's what that phone is for.

[high density]

40. hahaaha

That must be what the phone is for, as far as we know!

[Scurrilous]

4. Good news!

:thumbsup:

[Sir Jeffrey]

5. Red phone meets the red button. nt

[ccpup]

6. someone "very close to the Obama Campaign"

is suddenly supposed to be a trusted news source? Sure, if you drop the notion that there may be some spinning, some inflating of numbers, desperation to change the subject from the recent media drubbing Barack's been getting as well as undercut any victories Hillary may have tonight. And that's not even counting the fact that there is little -- perhaps -- but this person's (the one "very close to the Obama Campaign", remember) words to back up this delegate claim.

If the Hillary Campaign had said this to ANYONE -- let alone Tom Brokaw -- without proof and a "just trust us" wink and nod and please use it on a network to change the subject and make Hillary worry, DU would have to take a break to catch their collective breath between the uproar and the hissyfit.

[geiger]

19. good point. esp. since certain media people want to be a "player," too

total lack of professionalism.

Okay, I caught my breath. Thank you.

[malik flavors]

7. At 3 A.M. Wednesday morning, Obama will answer the phone and drop a money bomb on Camp Clinton...

If there are survivors left standing, it's a go on the superdelegate bomb.

[UALRBSofL]

8. The other bomb, Hillary stays in the race, FDP goes to the Supreme Court

Hillary gets 210 delegates from florida pushing her ahead of Obama.

[indimuse]

11. something like that!

!!

[Debi]

14. Excellent! That will unite the party!

:bounce:

Nothing like the Supreme Court 'helping' us all out.

[Spider Jerusalem]

29. nope

similar case already went to the Supreme Court; the ruling was that the national party had the right to establish the rules, and that there was no obligation to seat delegates from a primary that violated those rules. Precedent says the Florida Democratic Party has no case.

[Gore1FL]

42. 210 delegates?

They only hat 185 to start with, and if she did a huge proportion some, it would only close the gap by about 60. Mi is a wash in the same way. Both combined make the race closer, but the full gap doesn't close. It does push the number needed to win higher, but ultimately she needs to close the gap by at least 80 today to have a mathematical chance at a "Hail Mary" pass.

[anigbrowl]

48. How can she get 210 delegates when she only won 50% of the vote?

ALL the democratic races are proportional; none are winner-take-all. Any Democrat knows this...it's only Republicans who have winner-take all contests. Care to explain you comment?

Florida: 210 delegates

Clinton 50% = 105
Obama 33% = 70
Edwards ~15% = 30 (maybe, I can't remember if he hit the 15% minimum threshold)

Well that would be a net gain of...35 delegates.

[Orangepeel]

50. Clinton would net 60 from Florida if every superdelegate went her way.

Clinton "won" 105, Obama won 67 and there are 22 would-be supers. At least that's the info I heard.

[Bucky]

9. I love this race. The tension in Pennsylvania will be huge and fun.

Pennsylvania is a nice microcosm of the country. If we see a four month protracted knock down drag out over PA, I'm convinced whoever we end up nominating will know just what he/she needs to do to win in November. I love this sparring, but we're gonna be pumped up for the main attration in November.

:dem: Go Dems!!

[grantcart]

10. edit your subject line Obama

[Teaser]

12. freudian slip?

.

[bigbrother05]

16. done

[grantcart]

13. Its 3 am who does Hillary call when she hears that a bomb went off

[bigbrother05]

33. McCain

[blogslut]

15. I got love for Ohio

But if Obama wins Texas, it's over. A black man, winning the Democratic endorsement in the Lone Star State, is simply an historical story. There's no way to keep that from dominating the news cycle. It will go international.

[geiger]

20. Having lived in Texas, now living in Ohio, I can tell you that you are absolutely right.

Hadn't thought of that.

[MoonRiver]

17. He loses half the Democratic base if he pulls that out of his hat.

After all these weeks of hearing Obamatons screeching that Hillary better not steal the election with SDs, her supporters will NOT tolerate such crap. I for one would totally write off the Democratic Party and vote Green for now on.

[Kittycat]

21. It's her dirty politics that have cost her.

n/t

[billyoc]

25. "tolerate such crap"? Accepting endorsements from other Senators?

:rofl:

[yourguide]

26. ROFL

how is he stealing the delegates when he's already ahead in pledged delegates, and popular vote, and number of states won.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

27. Do you understand what superdelegates and pledged delegates are?

You seem to have some serious issues understanding even the basics of this primary season.

[sniffa]

36. He just likes to hear himself screech

[Spider Jerusalem]

30. He still has a lead in pledged delegates. Hillary doesn't.

He won't be using superdelegates to make up a deficit in his total, UNLIKE CLinton in a similar situation. THere is NO COMPARISON.

[sniffa]

35. Hillbots in their last throes

[jazzjunkysue]

45. I certainly hope so. n/t.

[Gore1FL]

44. SDs are part of the process.

Them overturning the pledge delegates would be an issue. This does not appear to be a problem for Obama at this time, unless Clinton is able to hold Obama to 75 total delegates (including the future TX delegate assignments from the caucus).

[David Zephyr]

18. Thanks for bringing this to us here at the DU, bigbrother05.

Much appreciated. I hope every word is true. K&R.

[bigbrother05]

22. I have to give credit to Grantcart

he had posted it in another thread

[David Zephyr]

38. And oodles of credit to Grantcart, too.

I like that Grantcart a lot, by the way. But thanks for posting it where I could see it, too.

[bigbrother05]

39. You are welcome

And Grantcart has done some excellent posting

[jgraz]

23. I expect Obama to handle this as deftly as he's handled the rest of his campaign

No matter how the primaries turn out tonight, this is gonna be National Buh-Bye Hillary Week.

[Dogmudgeon]

24. Obama gets the delegates. Hillary gets the votes.

Yeah, that's going to go over real well.

Also see Bush v Gore.

--p!

[Spider Jerusalem]

32. Obama will still be ahead in votes, too.

Even if Clinton wins by slim margins today (which is the best she can realistically expect to happen), it's not enough to put her ahead in total number of votes received.

[Dogmudgeon]

41. Today? Obama stays ahead. Probably.

But by May, that could easily change. The longer Hillary stays in the race, the greater the risk to Obama. And it's a big part of what is motivating the "Get Hillary Out NOW" movement. And why she is being told to get out "for the good of the Party".

Preemptive blame is always suspect. (No matter who does it.)

If this turns into the Voters vs the Mugwumps, we'll have real problems. So the supers will either have to be the ballast, or Hillary and her supporters will need to get something more than scorn and venom in return for an official ring-kiss.

--p!

[Spider Jerusalem]

43. Except that it probably won't change;

the math isn't there. And it's about pledged delegatres, not 'popular vote'. There's almost no way Hillary can overcome Obama's lead in pledged delegates. This is very simple and basic math. It is NOT hard to understand.

On edit: not to mention that a significant number of states have a caucus process for delegate selection; they contribute a significant number of delegates, but don't contribute significantly to the popular vote total. You don't get to just discount those states and say they don't matter. I'm sorry if you don't like it, but it's the system we have.

[anigbrowl]

49. By May, a comet might hit the earth

among other unlikely scenarios. I notice you always start off alleging something untrue (like Hillary having a majority among voters) and then when it's questioned shift to saying that it could happen shortly in the future.

[Dogmudgeon]

54. It's the Pot/Kettle thing.

"I notice you always start off alleging something untrue (like Hillary having a majority among voters) and then when it's questioned shift to saying that it could happen shortly in the future."

Actually, I presented a potential scenario relative to the OP. If it did not fit your conception of what a political scenario should be, at least part of the problem is yours. I am sorry that we have become so literal-minded here that we can no longer figure out what others are writing, but if I have to change my style of writing, I am willing to do so.

I also question your spin. It is a bad habit of many Obama supporters to call everything they don't like a "lie". If it is a habit you have, I encourage you to break it. But let me give you the benefit of the doubt and phrase my statement in as unambiguous terms as I can:

In the event that Hillary receives the plurality of votes and Obama receives the plurality of delegates, it will create a problem for the Democratic Party very similar to the general presidential election of 2000. The complementary scenario is also possible but not nearly as likely. Such a contingency will cause severe intra-party conflict, and will demand strong party unification work no matter who wins.

At the moment, Obama is favored, but several events short of a comet collision could change the race. Indeed, we should count on such change. There are several breaking stories about Obama that could make the race far more competitive -- or do nothing, if he handles them well. Clinton faces the same possibility, but as of yet, there is nothing serious on the horizon for her.

Premature withdrawal is not in her best interest, only Obama's. And it is not a good idea to pin all our hopes on one candidate in any election. We had no Plan B to cope with the tragedy in 1968, and it cost us the general election.

Mandatory Final Statement: I will work enthusiastically for whoever wins the nomination. Party defection is NOT an option I will take.

--p!

[carlotta]

28. Are these the super-delegates who've had their arms twisted

by Jesse Jackson, Jr.?

Just wondering.

[cali]

37. yes, Jackson is so all powerful that he managed to strong arm

50 SDs. Do you know even the first thing about politics.

[carlotta]

46. I guess you haven't been paying attention

The news about J.J. Jr. strong-arming black delegates has been all over the media and blogs.

From TPM:



A black supporter of Hillary, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, has given an interview in which he sheds light on some pretty interesting efforts by Obama supporter Jesse Jackson, Jr., to privately persuade him to rethink his support of Clinton:

In an interview, Cleaver offered a glimpse of private conversations.

He said Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois had recently asked him "if it comes down to the last day and you're the only superdelegate? ... Do you want to go down in history as the one to prevent a black from winning the White House?

"I told him I'd think about it," Cleaver concluded.

Jackson, an Obama supporter, confirmed the conversation, and said the dilemma may pose a career risk for some black politicians. "Many of these guys have offered their support to Mrs. Clinton, but Obama has won their districts. So you wake up without the carpet under your feet. You might find some young primary challenger placing you in a difficult position" in the future, he added.

[anigbrowl]

51. It's conspiracy theory time!

Go on, cut and paste it again. I'd love to know how all these super-delegates have been blackmailed by Jesse Jackson but are too afraid to speak out about it.

[Fire_brand]

31. Ha Ha

[bigbrother05]

47. kick

[fujiyama]

52. I still say

scrap the super-delegates and disregard FL and MI delegates as well unless a revote is made in those two states.

The concept of super delegates is undemocratic. And I felt the DNC's rules with regards to MI and FL were draconian. But that shit should have been sorted out before a flawed election took place in those states, where voters were convinced the primaries in those states didn't matter. Hell in MI, Edwards and Obama were not even on the ballot.

[RichardRay]

55. Do you know WHY we have super delegates?

This history of the idea? If not, then go find out. If so, then just why is it a bad idea?

[bigbrother05]

53. ...

:kick: