Obama leads early voting in Texas by 12%.

[Drunken Irishman]

Hey, if Herman can do it, so can I, but I actually have something to back it up.

A week’s worth of data, culled from 2,400 people who said they either voted early or strongly intended to vote, puts the early voting results (as of our poll results released Sunday night) at about 56-percent for Obama, and 44-percent for Clinton. We also know that early turnout among African Americans was nearly identical to turnout among Hispanics. However, there are signals that Obama peaked during the first week of early voting, and that Clinton has been gaining ever since.

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080303_tnt_belopollmonday.1c1978fa.html

If these numbers are true, Obama will have a 12 point advantage heading into the election -- much like the advantage Clinton had in California. So while Clinton may be closing the gap a bit the past two days (a measly insignificant percentage point), if these numbers are true, she still could lose Texas by double digits.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. And I said earlier that the early voting for Texas was trending 5 to 1 for Democratic Party

and it looks like it's over for Hillary. I just hope Howard Dean himself flies to wherever Hillary is, set her aside, and tell her to close up her shop or she's finished as a party advocate. At that point, I don't care if Dean gets kicked out or not, because it's all about unification of the Democratic Party, and we rally around Obama while he systemically tears down McCain to a quivering blob this November.

2nd edit: Dean for VP! Bring out the bats!!!!

Hawkeye-X

[krkaufman]

24. I'd love Dean for VP, but he wouldn't fit Obama's plan ...

... to reach-out to indies and Republicans. Unfortunately, Dean is tainted similarly to the Clintons, Kerry and a few others.

How about Russ Feingold? (As in McCain/Feingold?)

[Quixote1818]

2. I saw this. Great news for Obama! nt

[Sebass1271]

3. BY SOME FRIENDS OF MINE IN TEXAS..

IN THE LATINO COMMUNITY..

TEXAS IS OBAMA COUNTRY!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU&feature=related
watch this video!!!
:bounce:

[jaysunb]

10. Excellent !

I'm still smiling.... :thumbsup:

[GainesT1958]

11. That's awesome!

It's amazing how many genres of musicians from so many different walks of life have done songs, or videos, or both for him. From the Obama Girls to "Yes We Can" to this...wow, this is the best stuff since Frank Sinatra did a special version of "High Hopes" ("Back Jack") for JFK in 1960. Hmmm...yet ANOTHER one of those "parallels"!:eyes:

B-)

[Oilwellian]

20. I LOVE it

Thanks so much for posting...it's in my head now. :D

[ingac70]

4. I don't think....

Hillary's numbers are as good as some are saying. Here's why...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4869756&mesg_id=4869756

[thevoiceofreason]

6. Good point.

[Sebass1271]

16. DONT'

pARADE ON MY PARTY...

:smoke:

[MadBadger]

5. I dont think you are right about this being like California

the SurveyUSA poll had it at 52-42 with everything figured in. I think what this means is just that more of Obama's voters are voting earlier.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. But it puts Obama up +12 entering tomorrow.

That means Clinton will need +13 on Obama Tuesday to win, can she do it, sure, but that's a big margin to overcome, even if many Obama supporters voted early. And since they say the Hispanic and black vote is almost equal in early voting, many Clinton supporters have voted already as well.

[Yossariant]

8. Sure, right. As long as we pretend that last sentence doesn't exist.

However, there are signals that Obama peaked during the first week of early voting, and that Clinton has been gaining ever since.

:rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

12. I'm not ignoring that at all.

Remember, Clinton led in the first ever Belo poll by one, that's exactly where she leads now. If Obama is up +12 in the early voting and tied with her as most polls indicate, it's possible he could win by double digits. Do the math.

Even though Clinton may be gaining a bit over the past two days, it's marginal gains (not huge, 5-10 point swings). That won't be enough to win if she's in a 12 point hole. It's like entering the fourth quarter of a basketball game down 12 and scoring one more point than your opponent. Sure you outscored them in the 4th, but ya' still lost by 11.

[Upton]

9. This poll says the exact opposite

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_33_254.aspx What to believe?

[Drunken Irishman]

13. We'll find out who to believe tomorrow.

I don't trust polls that only poll on one day, as this one has.

[MadBadger]

14. That poll also underrepresents Obama's support among African Americans.

[thewiseguy]

15. I am not sure who has the lead among early voters

But no disrespect to the voters who will cast their ballots tomorrow, the candidate with the lead among early voters will win Texas.

60% of the ballots have already been casted.

If the two candidates are in a tie among early voters then Obama will win by 2-3 points.

[bigbrother05]

17. kick

[GainesT1958]

18. For what it's worth...

I've had a strong feeling...yeah, one of THOSE "feelings"...for about two weeks now that he would have a solid win in Texas. I still feel that way. Ohio may be a different story, though even if he doesn't best Hillary there, it's going to be a lot closer than several of the most recent polls (with the pleasant exception of Zogby) are showing. To me, that still means that he's got this one about wrapped up, and it's time for Hillary, however much she might have to be dragged kicking and screaming into it, to have, as we say here in North Carolina, one of those "Come to Jesus" moments, and throw in the towel.

However low she may still go--and the contrast with Obama, her and McCain was pretty bottom-of-the-barrel stuff--she needs to realize that it wasn't meant to be this time, and that someone just plain more dynamic--and a heckuva lot more positive about how things could be--came along. And any attempt to play "gotcha" with him on NAFTA, or on Rezko, will only smack of all those "gotchas" the Bushies tried to play on her husband in '92, and we saw how well they worked.

If he does that well tomorrow, then it's clear all those "major" Party figures sitting voluntarily on the sidelines need to get off those sidelines and face facts: we have a presumptive nominee, he's been effectively "vetted", and he's passed the tests. He's ready to lead and, above all, he's ready to be president...and yes, on "day one"!:eyes:

B-)

[Sebass1271]

19. AGREE

VIVA OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!;-)

Hillary, please do us all a favor, concede if you don't win Ohio, texas and vermont. We are ready to begin kicking McLame's some a____

[Scurrilous]

21. Kick

:thumbsup:

[LadyVT]

22. latest polls through 3/3

pollster.com:

OHIO:
Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
ARG 3/2-3/08 600 LV 56 42 1
Rasmussen 3/2/08 858 LV 50 44 6
Suffolk 3/1-2/08 400 LV 52 40 4
SurveyUSA 3/1-2/08 873 LV 54 44 1
PPP (D) 3/1-2/08 1112 LV 51 42 7

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
ARG 3/2-3/08 600 LV 50 47 2
Rasmussen 3/2/08 710 LV 47 48 5
InsiderAdvantage 3/2/08 609 LV 49 44 7
PPP (D) 3/1-2/08 755 LV 50 44 6
SurveyUSA 3/1-2/08 840 LV 48 49 2

The graphs on there are nice, too!

Go Hillary!!!

[Catherina]

23. Here's to double digits

:toast:

[AtomicKitten]

25. Oh, hell yes!!

:bounce: