Obama supporters - tell me something to cheer me up

[democrattotheend]

Because right now I have a terrible feeling about tomorrow. Based on the press coverage he has been getting today, I am afraid that he is going to lose Ohio and Texas by bigger margins than the polls suggest, and the polls are already pretty bad. The new memo from Plouffe (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Plouffe_Its_still_over.html) suggests that the internal polling shows him losing both, and this stupid, misleading Canada/NAFTA story seems to be gaining traction. Am I overreacting, or is it as bad as I think it is? Someone tell me something that's going to make me more optimistic...or tell me why I'm right, but please don't flame.

[Ian David]

1. Hillary is going to be on The Daily Show. How do you think it will go? n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. she gets warmed up and then melts away out of the campaign?

[Kukesa]

2. Take a look at VolcanoJen's post on the home page. n/t

[LSparkle]

9. THANK YOU! She's on the ground for pete's sake

Don't listen to the damned pundits -- they're all just trying to hedge their bets to make sure they still get invited to the same dinner parties in the next administration (whoever's it is); CHANGE IS SCARY TO THEM.

[liberalnurse]

69. Here is the Ohio Poll,,,Second poll shows Clinton with 9-point lead over Obama

Dayton Daily News:

March 3, 2008

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blo...

Sen. HIllary Clinton has a nine-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in a second poll released Monday, March 3 of likely votes in Ohio’s Democratic presidential primary.

The poll from Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C. shows Clinton ahead, 51-42 percent, a gain of four points since a PPP poll conducted last week. The results track closely with those in an Ohio Poll, sponsored by the University of Cincinnati, also released Monday which showed Clinton leading 51.3-42.3 percent.

Two other polls also were released Monday. A Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton ahead, 49-45 percent. A poll conducted by Zogby and released by Reuters, C-SPAN and the Houston Chronicle shows Obama ahead, 47-45 percent.

The Public Policy Polling poll shows Obama not getting the level of support from young people in Ohio that he received in other states. He’s ahead of Clinton 49-46 percent among voters 18-29 years old and lags behind her 48-44 percent among voters 30-45 years old.

Among likely voters in the Republican presidential primary, also set for Tuesday, March 4, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee, 50-33 percent, with Ron Paul getting 10 percent.

PPP surveyed 1,112 likely Democratic primary voters and 612 likely GOP primary voters from March 1-March 2. The margin of error on the Democratic side is plus or minus 2.9 percent and plus or minus 4 percent on the Republican side.

[VolcanoJen]

82. libnurse, you know I love ya to pieces... but talk to me about what Hillary is doing ON THE GROUND..

... in Ohio.

All I get from you guys is polls, polls, polls. What's going on in reality? Where's the enthusiasm? I'd love to read something to counter my feelings of excitement here in Ohio... if only to bring me down a little and lower my expectations!

Seriously. What are you guys up to? I've spilled the beans... why the chorus of crickets on the Hillary side?

[sniffa]

3. I just saved money on my auto insurance by switching to Geico

:woohoo:

And don't worry, this is just the last gasps. :hug:

[NDambi]

39. INDEED

[Coexist]

4. did you read the full memo?

if not, I suggest you do!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4863816

[Flabbergasted]

7. Where is "THE MEMO"?

[Coexist]

17. I linked to my post, which links to the full memo

[Cha]

49. We'll see what happens tomorrow..

can you cut the tension with a knife, or what? :)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. I support Hillary, and she is NOT getting the nomination. Be happy.

[bicentennial_baby]

15. ...

:pals:

:patriot: You're one of the good guys.

:)

[flor de jasmim]

8. Even if stories are gaining traction, don't rorget that 770,000 people already voted in TX

[cooolandrew]

73. Oh yeah ! Barack is genius!

[Flabbergasted]

10. Why are you linking to a thread that didn't supply a link?

[democrattotheend]

16. Oops, didn't realize there was no link

Try this: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Plouffe_Its_still_over.html

[NightWatcher]

11. you are over reacting, Obama has won 11 straight states and has a delegate lead

Hillary does need to win big or go home.

As for the shit in here today it is the death rattle of the Hillary supporters. This is their last, desperate grasp to stay in the race. They and Hillary are throwing all kinds of shit at Obama in the hopes that something stops his MOMENTUM because they know after tomorrow, the Democratic party leadership will start asking er to step down for the good of the party and country.

It's all OK, just check back here tomorrow after the polls close.

:hi:

[Botany]

12. Obama will crush Hillary Tomorrow

I am willing to betya that she loses Ohio too.

[Vinca]

13. The last time Hillary went negative, Obama won Wisconsin.

The time before, when Bill went negative (Jesse Jackson comment), Barack won South Carolina. Based upon the negativity spewing from the Clinton campaign today, Obama might close the deal tomorrow.

[thevoiceofreason]

14. Our Texas ground game is great

That's why Barack left for the weekend, to let us do our stuff. We are oing to turn out the vote like it's never been turned out before. Houston is Obama City, South.

[VolcanoJen]

18. Even if the SurveyUSA poll is correct about Ohio ...

... she'd leave Ohio with a net gain of +15 delegates. Big whoop. Losing the 11 straight post-Super Tuesday put Clinton in a hole she's not likely to be able to climb out of.

He's leading her by 162 right now. So ignore the spin on Wednesday morning from Ari Fleischer Howard Wolfson. Just desperate posturing.

Oh, and read this great analysis of the SUSA poll:

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/

And remember this too... by definition, each of these polls were taken BEFORE MoveOn's massive effort, the Teamsters massive effort, and our own Obama campaign MASSIVE massive Ohio GOTV efforts this weekend that I detailed in my post here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4861103

If that post doesn't cheer you up, nothing will. :-)

:hug: democrattotheend :hug:

[democrattotheend]

19. I don't care about the delegates - it's the media narrative that matters

If he loses Ohio big, it's going to raise questions about his ability to carry it in the general.

[HeraldSquare212]

22. The delegates will be the narrative, and he won't lose big in Ohio if he loses.

[democrattotheend]

24. I'm guessing 12 points

But I really really hope I am wrong.

[HeraldSquare212]

37. Me, too - but remember, 65% in both states is what she needs to pull even with Obama.

I don't think we're going to see a 20-point gap in either state. If each state were a 12 point gap, that might be a problem from an MSM story point of view, but I don't think we're looking at that for both states either.

[VolcanoJen]

28. Exactly. And Clinton's people don't get to define the narrative.

They'll try to float one, but Obama's team will just respond. This is a race for delegates. The math is not on her side. She made a fatal error by failing to have a post-Super Tuesday gameplan and now she's paying for it.

She can walk it back all she wants, but she screwed up, and she knows it. If Obama still has a 100+ delegate lead tomorrow and the majority of the popular vote, the pressure will mount for her to leave the race and unify the party. That message will be louder than whatever "narrative" Penn-Wolfson will try to float. :-)

[JackORoses]

27. It is not the media narrative that matters.

That may have been the case before Super Tuesday, but not any more.

Delegates are all that matters now.

[stillcool]

76. You always cheer me up!

every time I read one of your posts I feel audacious!

[VolcanoJen]

80. Stop it with your audacity!!!

And your big speeches, and huge rallies, and landslide victories, and stuff.

;-)

Oh, Yes We Can!!!

[stillcool]

83. It's my new favorite word.

I have the audacity to believe that "Yes We Can!" It is so not about Obama, and so much about me and not giving in to negativity and the sentiment that things will never change. If I can envision this...

.........anything is possible!

[progdog]

20. Most people aren't paying as much attention

to all the MSM stuff as we are. Example, my neighbor is sure Obama will be the nominee and apologized for all his nay saying when the campaign started. Didn't think anything of the "Sixty Minutes" interview and doesn't know who Rezco is. He like many voters are voting on the impression they get. I "HOPE" this is true.

[Kukesa]

30. One of our local news reporters did a "man on the street"

poll there was one man who didn't even know who was running.

Not paying much attention? I'll say!

[Barack_America]

21. There are 28 scheduled events within 10 miles of me in Pennsylvania.

Does that help?

:shrug:

[mucifer]

23. many young voters don't have landlines and are not being polled.

[Shakespeare]

25. I suspect this is a significant element. n/t

[tekisui]

26. The Hillary supporters are playing with your head!

Take a breath. She was up 20+% in TX and OH. Obama will most likely take TX and be very competitive in OH. They are playing a confidence game. It don't mean a thing.

THey have greatly lowered expectations to spin a win, and are starting to get to you with a head fake.

Obama will win more Delegates tomorrow, and Wednesday through next Tuesday will open the flood gates of SUperdelegates.

We will have Nominee and future President Obama this week!

[NDambi]

29. The media is playing the game...Just remember

she needs a big steam engine to knock hinm off the perch..and she ain't gonna get it...even a 10 point win in Ohio won't do it for her. Why do you think the Hillster's camp and the media keep moving the goal posts?

In my neighborhood, we normally say "Don't Believe the HYPE!"

[HeraldSquare212]

31. The Obama's camp position hasn't changed - it's always been, she needs 65% in each state

to catch up in delegates, and if she can't catch up in delegates, the race is over. And that will be the narrative tomorrow because she's not going to get 65% in each state.

PS What does a Democratic end look like?

[backscatter712]

32. Obama would have to eat a baby to NOT be the nominee.

If Hillary doesn't win both Ohio and Texas by 25-30 points, she can't win.

And even with the new batch of polls, and the most optimistic projections, she's not going to win by 25-30 in either state.

I'll admit some apprehension - I'm hoping Obama can continue his winning streak and finally put this primary season to bed.

The thing that makes me nervous is that even though there's almost no hope of Clinton winning, she will continue to drag out the nomination process for weeks, on full out smears-and-slanders negative mode, and quite frankly, she's already threatening to tear the party apart.

This year I've seen enthusiasm for the Democratic Party and new blood getting involved and participating in such numbers that I've never seen before in my life. We have so many new people and a tremendous amount of passion, and my fear is that if the primaries continue with Clinton spewing her venom and turning everyone in the party at each other's throats, all that new blood and enthusiasm will evaporate. We'll be left with yet another Dukakis/Mondale/Kerry style sorry excuse for a lackluster November election campaign, and we'll get our clocks cleaned in November. It is vital, IMHO to settle the nomination and seize that new blood - it's an opportunity that we may never see again in our lifetimes.

[NDambi]

35. " Obama would have to eat a baby to NOT be the nominee."

lMAO!!! :spray:

[backscatter712]

38. I was thinking of using the other punchline

"Obama would have to be caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy..." but I wonder if I'm crossing the line of good taste there.

[progdog]

48. A wee bit.

Just MHO.

[NDambi]

50. You hit the ball out of the park with the one you used..I laughed out loud..really out loud!!

Keep up the good work...

[blogslut]

33. Here's what you do

You go to the Barack Obama site. You join. Then you participate in phone banking to get out the vote.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/actioncenter

[writes3000]

34. This should make you feel better

Yes, the media wants to keep this going but when you read the summaries of people on the ground, you get a MUCH different perspective. Read the replies of this post.

Make sure you read the replies from the people in Ohio...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/3/145050/2889/823/468016

[grantcart]

36. 644 is Obama's magic number

[seabeyond]

40. warily sticking head in GP. i am in texas. i wanted to share, i have had about 6 calls

hubby about 3 calls from the obama camp. it is always a real person. i have had 1 call and hubby 1 call from clinton camp.... recorder.

person is so much more appreciated, and ..... personal. lol. also i have shared with obama people

i have seen three president stickers. one for ron paul, .... two for obama. and that is it.

my republican hubby looking excitedly to obama and my conservative father that has never voted democrat said he could vote obama this year.

ultra conservative texas panhandle. amarillo

[meow mix]

43. nice =)

im feeling pretty good about texas =)

[ChromeFoundry]

41. Obama will do just fine. n/t

[woolldog]

42. OK, this will cheer you up:

--Superdelegates will flow to Obama after March 4 given the alternative of a long, drawn out primary battle, regardless of the results tomorrow. Party elders will put pressure on Clinton to leave the race. It is dividing the party and ruining Democratic party's chances for November and they realize that.

--Wyoming and Mississippi are the two next states. Both will go for Obama.

--If all else fails, then comes PA. Hillary only has a slight lead there. Obama will have a month to saturate the area and pull off a grassroots, Iowa-style campaign. His superior organization and volunteers will be the difference.

[cottonseed]

44. The game is over. This is NOT a "comeback".

For all intents and purposes he's won the nomination. He's taken the high road and won the battle of character. He's won the popular vote, the delegates, and the hearts of the electorate. All the Clinton campaign has going for it is the crumbling support of it's once mighty machine. Obama is gaining by double digits in all states he's campaigning in. This will not stop after tomorrow. Even Richardson has come out and told the Clintons it's over. I predict that by Wednesday morning, all of this will thankfully come to an end.

[texas_indy]

45. Relax. I don't know about Ohio, but from what I see around here Obama is getting Texas.

No idea of the spread and it doesn't matter.

After all, who had the
1. 30,000 person rally in Austin?
2. 20,000 person rally in Houston?
3. 19,000 in Dallas?

Hint: It wasn't anyone on the Clinton team. :)
The Clinton team didn't come anywhere close to these size rallies. Even in her stronghold of El Paso she only got 12,000.


All Obama has to do is win either Texas or Ohio and it is over. Well, he is winning Texas tomorrow. Now, this doesn't mean Hillary will drop out. She'll be in all the way to the convention fighting like a pit bull for the nomination. Won't matter though, Obama will be the democratic nominee this year.

Don't worry about the threads saying Hillary will win tomorrow for what ever reason, or those bashing Obama. Leave them be so they can work out their frustrations. Most of them know the truth but are having a hard time accepting it.

Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[thewiseguy]

46. Think about where Obama was in the polls 2 weeks ago

After winning 11 straight, and where he wanted to be in the polls tomorrow.

We are already there. Lets not play the expectation game of winning Ohio and Texas together. Polls still show Obama with the lead in Texas and I promise you that we will win more delegates tomorrow night.

I will be here tomorrow night and we could celebrate together. Cheers!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

47. You Should Be Worried. Big Bad Clinton Is Coming To Get You All.

Oh yes.... She's coming for you all...

[ronnykmarshall]

51. I'm not an Obama supporter ... but I'll tell you a story.

This was told by Miss Emily Litella when she was teaching grade school.

"Tiny Kingdom"

Once upon a time there was this beautiful princess that lived in an itty, bitty, teeny, tiny kingdom.

One day a handsome prince road up on an, itty, bitty, teeny, tiny, itty, bitty, teeny, tiny horse. The handsome prince took the princess way to get married in an,itty, bitty, teeny, tiny, itty, bitty, teeny, tiny carriage.

Then the handsome prince and beautiful princess got married and went off to live a lovely,itty, bitty, teeny, tiny, itty, bitty, teeny, tiny, itty, bitty castle.

And on their wedding night the princess found out that the prince had an, itty, bitty, teeny, tiny, itty, bitty, teeny, tiny ....... (School bell rings).

Never mind.

Class dismissed.

[AX10]

52. Actually, this is the Obama camp down playing tomorrow.

It's typical campaign propaganda.

[democrattotheend]

53. No it's not...I am seriously depressed

I don't work for the Obama campaign, and I am not trying to downplay expectations, except maybe my own. I have been pretty distraught by all of the polls and news today, and I was hoping fellow Obama supporters could tell me something to make me more optimistic. No agenda here besides trying to calm myself down.

[malik flavors]

54. Just posted on MSNBC First Read:

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
COLUMBUS, OH -- Today in Ohio’s capital city, the temperature reached the upper 60s, with a mix of sun and clouds. Tomorrow’s forecast calls for rain, and lots of it. So which day would you rather vote?

Across the state, Ohioans are in fact voting today. And hundreds of thousands have cast ballots in the past few weeks, as voters take advantage of the state’s new early voting option. Local elections officials are reporting record numbers of early votes cast in tomorrow’s primary. And though both Democratic campaigns have encouraged their supporters to vote early, there is some evidence that Obama may have an upper hand.

“Without question I think both campaigns on a national level, since they hit Ohio have encouraged early voting,” said Steve Harsman, director of elections in Montgomery County. “We’re at well over three times the number we had in the primary in 2004, and we’re anticipating a huge turnout tomorrow.”

Since 2006, Ohio voters have had the option to request absentee ballots 25 days before primary elections, and without giving a reason. Through the so-called “no-fault” absentee balloting, a person can also come in person to a county board of election office, request an absentee ballot, and immediately return it.

“We’re doing 4, 5, 600 ballots a day out of our office,” said Brian Williams, director of elections in Summit County, which includes the campaign hot spot of Akron. “That’s just unprecedented as far as over-the-counter votes, and a reflection of how the campaigns are recommending people vote in person.”

Kelly Pallante, director of the Trumbull County Board of Elections, says people have been lined up outside her office all day to vote. She said over 3,000 people have voted in person, and another 4,000 by mail. In 2004, just over 3,000 people voted absentee for the primary. In Franklin County, officials have extended the voting hours to 9:00 pm tonight to keep up with the demand. “It’s just been so popular this year,” said Ben Piscitelli, spokesperson for the board of elections there. “We were open on President’s Day, which should have been a county holiday.”

Officials unanimously agree that the Democratic Party is what is driving the interest. Some said that the Obama campaign in particular seems to have generated the most activity. In Montgomery County, Harsman said that the day after the Obama campaign did a massive phone push to get people to vote, more than 1,000 people came in person to vote, doubling or tripling the usual day-to-day traffic. “From our experience, it’s Obama that’s having the impact here,” said Summit County’s Williams, who added that some voters have been mistakenly putting “Obama” in the part of the form where they are supposed to indicate their party.

Clinton’s campaign has been active as well in encouraging early votes. On the first day of balloting, Gov. Ted Strickland led events all over the state to draw attention to early voting as he cast his ballot in Franklin County. This weekend, it held events in all 88 counties in which early voting was a focal point.

But it appears that Obama’s campaign has been more deliberate about encouraging these votes, even at events for campaign surrogates. At an event in Akron for Michelle Obama last week, a field organizer asked for a show of hands of how many people had already voted. More than a third of the crowd raised their hands. And the next day, at an event in Canton, the campaign had vans waiting outside the event waiting to bring people to vote at the Stark County Board of Elections.

“You guys are the die-hards, you’re the supporters, you’re gung-ho, so we want your votes now!” field organizer Maureen Tracey-Mooney told a crowd at a Michelle Obama event in Cincinnati last month.

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said last week that nearly 200,000 absentee ballot requests had been received in Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties alone. She predicts a statewide turnout of over 50%, based in part on the early voting numbers in Ohio and the turnout in other states this year. In 2004, turnout for the primary was just under 33%.

“I think the voters are pretty excited, because we thought that we’d be an afterthought after Super Tuesday,” Brunner said. “But it’s kind of like the BCS National Championship where we started watching primary after primary in states just like we watched all those different . And here Ohio State ended up in the national championship.”

And amid concerns about how smoothly the election will run, Brunner added: “The one thing I can tell you is we’ll perform better in the election than the Buckeyes did.”

[writes3000]

57. LOVE that report! Thank you! That is AWESOME!

Go Barack!

[grantcart]

55. relax

\

1) Obama elections out perform his polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4851187

2) On Wednesday the superdelegates are going to step in in a big big way. Richardson already tipped his hand.

90% of the party does not want this to go on and on, and she cannot catch up in delegate count

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

56. This cheered me up today.

Obama picture thread done by our flpoljunkie

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4864104

[intaglio]

58. Get out there and work

Start pushing, with friends, neighbours everyone. If you are in Tx, Oh, Vt, or RI then volunteer. If you are not and can get there volunteer. If you cannot and cannot get there then local volunteer or just push your candidate on your own.

[democrattotheend]

61. Got back from Ohio last night

Traveled 8 hours from DC and back to campaign for him this weekend. Will make calls tonight.

[grantcart]

59. Also one interesting thing that polls in both states showed

was that a very large majority of dem voters in both states think that Sen. Obama will be the nominee and that will have an impact on the turn out especially in Ohio if the weather is bad. People will be a lot more motivated to go out and vote if they think that their candidate is going to win

now if you still need something cannot give you a hug from here so just hit this every hour


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY

[grantcart]

60. and then there was this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4855436&mesg_id=4864857

[otohara]

62. Poll #'s Do Not Reflect Cell Phone Users

all those kids who don't have land lines are NOT being called by the pollsters. They are what put him over the top in Colorado and other states where he won big time and was only expected to win by a few points.

[democrattotheend]

63. True, but hasn't that been the case in all of these states?

And Obama has not always outperformed the polls. I just assumed they'd weight each response from young voters more heavily to account for that. Plus, even if the polls end up being wrong, the trends are not good.

[book_worm]

75. Jeez, you ask for reassurance and people do nothing but give

reassurance and your responses are to rain on what they say.

[democrattotheend]

77. You're right, sorry!

I appreciate the efforts, and there have been a few things on this thread that have made me feel better, so thank you!

[roseBudd]

64. I taped Obama flyers on utility poles in downtown Cincinnati today, saw lots of Obama people

sporting buttons, none for Hillary

These were regular people waiting for the bus

[BuyingThyme]

65. Isn't this what made Bill Clinton so popular?

[Upton]

66. Even if he loses both Texas and Ohio

it will, most likely, be by single digits. Means she'll be lucky to make up any ground at all in pledged delegates. Meanwhile, we've got Wyoming and Miss. coming up in the next week and Obama is heavily favored in both.

[democrattotheend]

67. I'm making phone calls to OH, and everyone is hanging up on me

Anyone else having better luck?

[seabeyond]

68. hubby and i always chatted (we are in texas) tonight though, 2 obama calls

recorded, and no clinton calls. oh and on mccain call from cindy telling me how honest, responsible and faithful he is.... lol lol

[cindyw]

70. Hillary has to win every state from now on with 60-70% to win. In August Feb will have been the end.

[Tatiana]

71. We will win Texas. Dallas will tip the scales in a big way for Obama.

That will give him the popular vote and the caucus later on that day will give a definite delegate advantage.

Ohio is probably a lost cause, even if we lose, it will be close. Plus Vermont will be another blowout victory.

Hillary won't blow Obama out in any of the four states.

:hug: HANG TIGHT!

[seabeyond]

72. and remember in texas vote TWICE. obama people are really preaching this

in the calls they are making.

[RBInMaine]

74. Will come down to GOTV, and don't forget Indys and R's.

Young people who support Obama are under-represented in the polls,
and don't forget Indys and cross-over R's who lean Obama (despite what Rush is telling them to do). These are unknowns and are hard to gauge in the polls. I can tell you that the Obama camp is doing all it can on GOTV. Very motivated. Very strong GOTV operation. Hillary decided to go negative and drive that negative debate (when in doubt, raise doubts about your opponent, and, sadly, it can have an impact), and she does have an establishment base in RI, OH, and TX (especially in the Hispanic community). Also take heart that Obama was 15-30 points down in these states just a matter of a few weeks ago. If it's close in TX, OH, and RI, and in the face of all the negativity and biased crap from the corporate media, he will have done very well. He'll take Vermont in a cakewalk. He probably misses RI and OH in relatively small single digits. If the ground game is effective enough, he takes the
Texas-2-Step. Don't fret. Just go to BarackObama.com and make calls to Texas.

[democrattotheend]

78. Thanks, everyone!

I am feeling a tad better, though I am still very nervous about tomorrow. Hopefully we can pull it out or at least keep it close in Ohio...I still have a bad feeling but I'm encouraged by some of the stuff here. And sorry if I have been too doomy and gloomy for some...I have gotten my heart broken every time I have gotten behind a candidate so I try hard not to get my hopes up.

[Arkana]

79. Here's something--she needs to win by +20 margins in both states

just to make a DENT in his lead.

That make you feel better?

My feeling? Tomorrow will result in absolutely no net gain for either side.

[Avalux]

81. Report from Texas - check out this analysis.

Obama will take Texas tomorrow. There's a lot her but I especially enjoyed reading this section:

Given Senator Obama's history with caucuses, this is certainly an achievable margin. However, the importance of Texas to the Clinton campaign has drawn a surge of Hillary volunteers both from Texas, and from around the nation. At the end of the day, however, numbers may not be able to make up for the superior organization that Senator Obama's campaign has displayed in every caucus contest.

Other takeaways from the poll include:

- The survey breaks up the results into four age groups, and Senator Clinton leads in every one, except those between the ages of 18 and 34. However, her only significant lead is with voters over the age of 65, where she has 22 percentage point lead.

- Among those who responded with a party affiliation, Senator Obama leads among those who identify Republican 60% to 36%.

- Senator Obama also has a significant lead among those that identify themselves as independents: 55% to 41%.

- Among those that identified the economy as the top issue in the election, the candidates split the votes: 49%-49%

- Where Iraq and Terrorism were identified as the top issue in the election, voters overwhelmingly preferred Senator Obama.

Iraq - - Terrorism
Obama 57% 62%
Clinton 42% 30%

These voters were interviewed Saturday and Sunday, after Senator Clinton had put her new national security ad into play. However, the surveys may be too close to judge the ad's impact, if it has any.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/

:hi:

[Political Heretic]

84. Hows this: he's already got the nomination? Hope that helps.

The only way he won't have the nomination is if superdegates subvert the process and go against the person with the most pledged delegates - that is simply no longer even a chance of happening, especially with the party elders already coming out and pressuring Hillary to drop out. If superdelegates countered the public process this year, they will cut democratic turn out in half, disenfranchise the voters, and lose the general and they know it. There is no way that will happen.

Which means, its already over.

The only reason I want Obama to win both TX and OH Tuesday is so that we don't have to continue delaying the inevitable with the clintuckabee campaign.