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Obama wouldn't be trailing Hillary, he'd be coming up to lap her.
I don't want to write a whole long essay on it (as I doubt I'd change your mind no matter how much I wrote on the subject), but I consider this one of the areas where Obama has already shown himself to be a genius. I'm not talking about the Iraq war etc., but his comments on Pakistan.
Last year, Obama said openly that Pakistan had been a poor ally, and that if he were President he would renew the hunt for Osama bin Laden, and conclude it - even if that meant going after him without cooperation from the Pakistani regime. A firestorm ensued - "zOMG we're going to BOMB pakistan, a sovereign country!!!11!" Republicans who cheerfully discuss the idea of nuking Tehran and consider all Arabs to be 'camel jockeys' or 'ragheads' were suddenly (pretending to be) aghast at the idea of breaking international law, and talking about Pakistan and General Musharraf like it was the promised land and he were Jesus Christ 2.0. George Bush himself took time out to condemn the remarks and reaffirm our bond with Pakistan yadda yadda.
Flash forward to today: Musharraf has only a fingernail grip on power, after being soundly defeated in an election. He's imposed martial law on the country, moved the election, had opponents arrested, and seen one of his opponents assassinated (not saying he was involved, but how badly have you been running the country when that can happen so easily?). Meantime we've given up on telling Pakistan everything we're up to/asking permission, because the fact is that half of the Pakistani intelligence service are AQ sympathizers. Instead we have attacked AQ by carrying out our own operations on our own terms.
Now the thing is that anyone who has closely watched Pakistan over the last few years could have told you this was going to happen. Musharraf is not a very good leader and it was glaringly obvious that Pakistan was not a very good ally. Obama just 'told it like it is' instead of repeating the kind of pious coded bullshit we've become used to from the current administration. A bold and risky maneuver, that most people at the time said had backfired and showed how 'naive' he was.
But by saying so, he put Pakistan on notice that under an Obama presidency, they could no longer expect to receive handouts of financial and military aid that a dictatorship could use to maintain its grip on power - and to an extent, that emboldened Pakistni people to reassert their democratic rights and vote Musharraf's party out - despite bombings, assassinations, extreme press censorship and the imposition martial law. Musharraf tried every tool in the dictator's manual to suppress political dissent in the country he ruled, but the Pakistani people firmly rejected his rule...AND they rejected hard-line Islamic parties that sympathize with Al Qaeda as well, which surprised many observers.
Now, think about this. Bush has been a staunch supporter of Musharraf since 2001, constantly patting him on the back and telling him that 'America has no better friend in the region than Pakistan' and suchlike. Obama, running far back from the presumptive nominee last summer, said what a lot of people have been thinking privately: Pakistan is a semi-dictatorship, has not been a great ally, and this co-dependent nonsense needs to end. Hillary Clinton...well, I don't know what she thinks about Pakistan. And, I suspect, she doesn't either - back in January she was talking the elections as if Musharraf was a candidate (he wasn't - the election was for the legislature rather than the presidency), betraying a startling ignorance of the country.
Who has done more to advance the cause of democracy in Pakistan? Obama, that's who. Evan as a non-frontrunning candidate 15 months out from the election, he has demonstrated an ability to exert influence abroad. The timing and tone of his remarks were no accident: he knew he was going to cause huge controversy and that he would get trashed for saying what he did, but gambled that by the time the primaries rolled around, people would see the wisdom of what he said last fall.
And if you doubt this, why doesn't Hillary Clinton bring it up in debates and on the campaign trail? Because Obama can point at the events in Pakistan since then and say four words: 'I told you so.'
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