I don't think Hillary will quit if she loses Texas but not Ohio.

[Bicoastal]

And If that Ohio vote is more than 2% or 3 delegates? She'll claim it as a huge turning point for her campaign and continue onward guns a-blazing.

She's in it for the long haul, folks. This very well may continue until the convention. :(

[Spider Jerusalem]

1. I'm starting to think of Hillary as Gollum...

and the nomination is the Ring. 'No...my precious!!!'

[Alter Ego]

28. "She hates and loves the Nomination, Frodo...

...much as she hates and loves herself."

[K Gardner]

32. OMG... rofl... that mental image calls for another cup of coffee !

[DearAbby]

2. I believe that soon there will be pressure from those

within the party for her to bow out, for the good of the party.

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Probably not till PA unless she loses both OH and TX.

Just a guess.

[DearAbby]

7. I dont know, she has to win both states with a considerable

% points to beat Obama. And with what has been happeing within the last few days, the continued fight could be damaging to the party itself.

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. It's worse on DU than real life, methinks

I don't think they'll be asking her to end her campaign at least until she has lost the superdelegate lead. Again just a guess.

[NoBorders]

40. Yep. She'll say OH is more important (swing state)

But, PA is six weeks after that with 2 states Obama will likely win big. It will surely be interesting to see what she does assuming she loses TX.

[K Gardner]

33. I think that's already happening. She'll be out by March 5th, if she doesn't self-implode

prior to that date.

[kennetha]

4. Take Note

Hillary is up by 11pts in Ohio. Within the margin of error in Texas (according to SurveyUSA) and actually leading by 5pts among the 25% of likely voters who have already voted. She could easily win Texas by a small margin and Ohio by 10 or more points. She could also carry Rhode Island.

People only pay attention to one thing that Bill Clinton said. If she loses Texas or Ohio, he doesn't think she can be the nominee. But if she wins both, he thinks she will be the nominee. I agree. It's not a matter of catching up in pledge delegates. It will be a matter of her having carried many states that dems must carry to win and him having amassed delegates in places that Dems have no hopes of winning. THat will hold ajor sway with the supers.

If FLA and MI had just agreed to hold their primaries on Super Tuesday, Hilary would almost certainly have won them anyway. Too bad they didn't. But if she wins TX and Oh COUNT on Fl and MI being seated.

[emilyg]

8. I think you're right.

[Eric J in MN]

11. Rasmussen says Obama is leading among Texans who already voted.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

"Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they have already voted and Obama leads handily among this group."

[snooper2]

30. And don't forget we vote twice in Texas...

So "some" of use :) already voted so we can caucus on Tuesday night and not have to make a whole day of it :) :)

[NDambi]

14. I don't think the Super Delegates will override the popular vote..nor do I think

Hillary has the gusto to beat him enough in any state by a wide enough margin to overcome his lead in the popular vote or pledged delegates.

Her chances of winning are slim to none...

[anigbrowl]

15. Man, your post is full o contradictions

Yeah, she would probably have won FL and Mi on super Tuesday...and she'd still be behind now.

And you say she could win Texas, but you aslso say it's a red state and therefore doesn't count. Whatever.

[karynnj]

38. I don't buy that the supers wil buy that argument

It would create anger and would split the party worse than 1968.

Also the election is determined by the electoral college. Even if HRC's win in CA for example might win she would win CA by more - which is NOT a proven fact - it doesn't mean Obama will lose. Piling up huge margins in the bluest of states could lead to a popular vote victory, but an election loss. (It may not even lead to a higher popular vote margin as Obama might get more while losing in the red states.)

I know I will be told that fighting hardest for the swing states is too 2000 and 2004, but in fact that is where the battle is. The question may come down to who is better in those swing states. Again, that is best assessed in head to head polls with McCain. For most Democrats and people who lean Democrat, their preference will be Obama-HRC-McCain OR HRC-Obama -McCain. For all these people assuming they are also equally likely to vote - it will not matter in terms of the vote which one they like better. The difference in their results come from people who either have different likelihoods of voting depending on the candidates or those who put McCain in the middle. An additional factor is whether one or the other is more likely to pull Republicans and Republican leaning independents.

[babylonsister]

5. Nah, she's toast and will declare it, maybe, for the good of the

party. I won't ever believe she'll do it for that, but that's what she'll say. Will she work against Obama? We need to pay attention; she worked against Gore and Kerry, why not Obama?

OK, maybe she didn't work 'against' them, she sure didn't help them. Sheesh!

[grantcart]

6. HRC campaign for President has simply failed to develop a compelling

HRC campaign for President has simply failed to develop a compelling
message on why she should be President. If you did not immediately buy into the inevitability argument there was never a compelling hook for anybody to join that was not already a fan. Her experience arguement was destroyed by her inability to make a clear statement about the IWR vote, admitting the mistake and moving on.

If she repeat she had not been so interested in packaging a product for consumption but rather fired her pollsters and consultants and just put herself out there she would have been the candidate. It happened for a moment in NH and the people responded. The great irony of this campaign season is, that Sen. McCain's prescription of just leaving all of the packagers behind and doing town meetings would have made her a rock star. Can you imagine the media she would have generated by travelling by herself and just talking to people.

So now she has been hanging on after one landslide after another. Please do not take any one instance and make a morality statement out of that. Sen. Clinton has been defeated. She has no hope of winning the nomination without some nuclear event. So now the Obama campaign and everyone else in the party are going to jump on every little mosquito burp to get this done by Mar 4th.

Sen. Clinton, President Clinton and all of the other paid consultants are guilty of campaign malpractice. Rather than settling out of court we have to wait for another jury. Just like any other civil action don't be surprised if the jury on Mar 4th brings in damages that will have a devestating effect on the Clintons. They could have settled some time ago for pennuies.

After Wisconsin this stopped being about Obama winning it is now simply about packing up the circus with as little damage as possible. The ball is in Clinton's court

[DearAbby]

12. There was a headline in one of the papers today

the Rocky or the Denver Post, I was walking by it on the way out of getting robbed at the grocery story (It sure felt like it) And it had.. Something about DAY 1 argument... Their experience are exactly the same, they are all three Senators. They have no experience in running a business.

What other experiences does any one of them have, in running a country, that the other two dont have?

[grantcart]

18. Obama has some unique other experiences

1) As law review editor he had to moderate completely opposing points of view into a working team. Hardcore republicans that were on the review said that while he was a firm liberal they liked him because atleast the got respect and a hearing.

2) As a lecturer of Law a Uof Chicago he obviously knows the constituion better than any recent occupant of the whitehouse but also 3) had to teach at a high academic level

4) As a community organizer he completely reshaped the political landscape of the city of Chicago,
http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-1993/Vote-of-Confidence/

The value of being a community organizer is two fold a)He learned to communicate with oridnary people both developing an acute political ear that we have seen in this campaign and b)also the ability to motivate people.

5) As a community organizer he learned the problems of poverty

6) As a state legislator he has a unique understanding of how the federal government just passes on unfunded mandates and alos what programs should be done at the state level

7) Obama has run a successful mass national campaign from being a complete unknown the others have not,

[KittyWampus]

35. thanks for acknowleding the value of Obama's career path.

[grantcart]

54. Amazing isn't it who would have thought that just talking and

working with ordinary Americans - many of them desperately poor would be better training than sitting in meetings and corporate boards.

[DearAbby]

58. I have seen his record...he has sponsered and co=sponsered

some impressive bills. He didnt get where he is today being an empty suit, as some like to claim. Lets be honest for here.

[Nedsdag]

39. But....but....but she had a "compelling message."

Remember: "I'm in it to win it?"

:sarcasm:

[Independent-Voter]

47. The more people saw her, the more they were turned off. Shrillness is no virtue for a candidate

[AtomicKitten]

9. She needs to win 65-35% in Texas and Ohio and 70-30% in Pennsylvania to just catch up with Barack.

Rough numbers from political math wizards.

[LisaL]

25. That's the thing-she doesn't need to do that at all.

Neither of them will get enough votes for the nomination, and then it goes to the convention.
So, no.
She doesn't need to win TX and OH by a huge margin at all.

[Muzza]

As it should...

Why are people so desperately concerned about this going all the way? Rules and rules. If you need 2025 to win, then this should go on until that happens. If Obama wins, so bet it. He will be all the more stronger for having to stave off a fierce competitor in Clinton. And if Clinton wins, I will praise the Lord above!

[apocalypsehow]

20. "And if Clinton wins, I will praise the Lord above!"

Oh, brother. :eyes:

[Dogmudgeon]

10. That's a good point, but ...

... suppose she takes all three of the states (TX, OH, RI) that day? She is ahead in all three states, though Obama is closing the gap. But his victory is not assured, in spite of the assertions of Obama supporters and the press (but I repeat myself).

Even wins by small margins, three of them, would certainly add momentum to her campaign. And a lot of people seem to forget that while it is highly unlikely that Clinton will achieve 2025 delegates by the convention, Obama is in a similar position. Getting to 2025 will not be as difficult for him, but he is still not likely to reach it.

Hillary is actually doing pretty well, considering that she is not just running against an individual, but a social movement, excitement, emotionally involving group activity, Change, Hope, and The Future. It is a good campaign strategy by Obama, but the fact that she's able to keep her polling numbers as high as they are speaks well to her base of support.

She shouldn't be counted out yet. In two weeks, that might change -- but it might also change for the better. The contest isn't quite over. Calling for her acquiescence now is still a little premature.

--p!

[Bicoastal]

13. I agree w/your post, but Obama HAS already caught up with her in Texas.

I've seen two new (credible) polls today that already have him ahead by a small margin. They're within the MOE, but they still suggest a statistical tie at best for Hillary; at worst for her, they suggest Obama is in the lead.

Unless I miss my guess, Clinton can not currently claim to be ahead in Texas.

[blogslut]

17. We'll see

I voted in Texas on Saturday. Now I have to wait with the rest of us and see how it all plays out.

[cali]

19. If she loses TX and it's close in OH, she'll drop out

Bill indicated that if she doesn't win OH and TX, she can't win the nomination. The pressure on her to drop out will become intense. Her financial difficulties will increase. It's not sustainable at that point.

[kennetha]

21. don't think Ohio will be close.

Everything has been going Obama's way for weeks. And he's still behind in Ohio by a substantial margin. Hillary is pulling out all the stops in Ohio. Ohio looks like a 10+ point win. Texas will be close, no doubt about it. But I think all she needs is a win, any kind of win, in Texas. Again, if she wins all the big states and if the only thing keeping Obama ahead in the delegate counts is the absence of FL and MI, FL and MI WILL be seated.

[cali]

22. He's cut the margin in half in under two weeks. In the latest PPP

poll- and they were closest in WI- he's behind by four. The most he's behind is by 11, and in every state he's closed in the last week. It is very unlikely that she wins by 10 in Ohio. TX looks like a strong win for Obama. He's already far ahead in early voting, and he's now pulling ahead in polling. He has another week to close it and he has way more money and a much, much more extensive ground game there. The odds of her winning TX are very small indeed. It's over. It's been over since WI. I suspect he'll win big in TX and edge her out in Ohio. She's plummeting in the polls and the more negative she goes the swifter she falls.

[spinbaby]

24. I don't know about that

Obama has volunteers swarming the state the next few days--even if he's a bit behind now, that amount of manpower could turn things around.

[RoadRage]

37. He's making inroads with the Unions.. lots of Union endorsements..

and his ground game is good in OH. She may win, but i don't think it will be by 10. 5 at the most.

[TexasObserver]

23. Glenn Close. Fatal Attraction. You think she's done but she lurches out of the tub.

Party leaders are going to have to hire Van Helsing to drive a wooden stake through her heart, it appears.

[workinclasszero]

26. If Hillary loses Texas

Its fuckin OVER!

The party bigshots and Bill Clinton himself need to step in and demand an end to this divisive campaign that does nothing but help the thug party elect McCain in the fall!

Enough is enough!

[Tveil]

27. Skame on her than.

She rather destroy the Party.

[endarkenment]

29. She will have a sit down and will be read the riot act.

She will exit gracefully March 5.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

31. she shouldn't...TX is an OPEN Primary with1 timeRepublican crossover voters will muddy the Dem water

[ClassWarrior]

41. Oh that's right, the all-powerful RW is going to decide our nominee...

...with a handful of wild-eyed Rush-listening vote-switchers.

:rofl:

NGU.

[paulk]

42. in Wisconsin nine percent of the Dem vote was crossover

Republican. Obama got 70% of that. That's more than a handful.

[ClassWarrior]

43. So which percentage of them were...

...tactical Rush-Bot vote-switchers, and which percentage were folks with Dem values who have voted for the Rape-Publicans for the past decade or two because we haven't, up until now, been able to effectively articulate our message?

Tell me. How many are playing tricks and how many are sincere?

You can't. But I seriously doubt the vast majority of those citizens are zombie-eyed Rush-Bots who'd throw away their votes over a hare-brained Oxycontin-fueled scheme.

NGU.

[ClassWarrior]

45. Any ideas here?

If you have any breakdowns, I'd love to see them. I doubt the freaks make up more than a sliver of the pie, but I'd like to be certain.

NGU.

[ClassWarrior]

48. This is probably the fourth or fifth time I've said this, and this is the first time...

...anyone's challenged it. I was hoping you could give me some answers. But apparently you don't have any.

:shrug:

NGU.

[paulk]

53. I actually have a life outside of DU, believe it or not.

you don't know how many are "rushbots" - you don't know what the motives of Republicans voting in a Democratic primary are.

the point is you can't say, with the numbers involved, that it's inconsequential. You can't just toss it off - the fact remains that large numbers of Republicans are voting for Obama in Democratic primaries. And that doesn't even touch on the larger numbers of independents voting for him.

There is good reason to be worried, or at the very least, question why this is happening.

[ClassWarrior]

56. So what do you think? That great masses of Rape-Publican voters are marching...

...zombie-eyed to the polls on the orders of the RW High Command? And which orders? The ones to vote for Obama or the ones to vote for Clinton? I've heard them call for both.

Read "The Emerging Democratic Majority": http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com/edm/index.cfm

And please don't write off these potential allies who have been fooled the past several decades by the con-men and criminals.

NGU.

[paulk]

57. the original post said that Republicans in TX

will cross over to muddy the waters.

They will make it harder to understand, especially in a close race, what exactly is going on. I don't think there are enough to swing things one way or another - but, as I pointed out - 9% - almost 1 in 10 - in Wisconsin is certainly enough to muddy the waters.

What do you do if at the convention Hillary has a popular vote lead among registered Democrats, but the Independents and Republicans put Obama over the top? What should the super delegates do then?

-------------

I'm not comfortable with "potential allies" in a caucus or primary. I have no idea if the commitment of these people extends to a general election. There is no way of knowing - and, for me at least, that's some awful thin ice to skate into the GE on.

[loveangelc]

34. I'm almost certain she'll drop out. She has not rationale for her campaign.

if she doesnt drop out someone will talk to her and tell her she has to for the good of the party.

[Independent-Voter]

36. I hope she rides her campaign all the way into the ground. Seal that legacy Hillary. Seal it.

[IndianaGreen]

44. I don't think the party elders will let her drag this shit to Denver

If Obama wins Texas, and wins or comes close in Ohio, you will see the majority of superdelegates throwing their support to Obama and putting him over the top.

[Renew Deal]

46. If she loses Texas, she will lose the day

She will lose Vermont by more than she wins RI.

[PresidentObama]

49. She says that now. I was on Edwards side when he said he'd be in till the convention...

...I knew certain events would mean otherwise.

Hillary Clinton has to win TX, OH, and PA to stay in the race and effectively fight for the nomination. Otherwise, I would think she'd drop out. But in the end, that's her decision and her decision alone to make.

[kentuck]

50. I think you are correct...

If she wins OH, she still has a chance. Slim, but still a chance.

[bridgit]

51. pft, if I were HRC, I'd drag this thing all the way onto the convention floor...

Hear some speeches, drink some beer, let the delegates do their thing, drop some confetti & balloons. Apply some Neosporin somewhere to be sure. I'm more weary of coronations for the sake of crowns & pretzel-dents by default. So long as the process is even chugging along, then let it do so all the way to the convention: cha-boogety, cha-boogety, cha-boogety, cha-boogety - POW!

[HeraldSquare212]

52. I agree, but I think superdelegates will encourage her to leave and if she doesn't,

they'll start to abandon her publicly en masse and uncommitted SDs will publicly go for Obama in large numbers, which will make apparent the futility of a convention strategy and force her out.

[nsd]

55. My guess is that that scenario might be what impels Al Gore ...

to make an endorsement, effectively pushing Obama over the top. If Clinton loses Texas (and even if she wins), there's really no way for her to get the nomination before the convention, and then only after ugly (party destroying?) fights about Michigan/Florida and superdelegates. Gore might see it as his duty to break his neutrality so as to spare the party that.

[Flabbergasted]

59. She may not quit. But the pressure to concede will force her out.