Two New Polls: Clinton Holds Strong Ohio Lead

[ElsewheresDaughter]

COLUMBUS, OH - Just a week before Ohioans cast their votes in the Democratic primary, two polls released today show Senator Hillary Clinton holding a strong lead over Senator Barack Obama.

In a new Quinnipiac University Poll, Clinton holds an 11-point edge over Obama, leading 51-40. And among likely primary voters, Clinton’s favorability rating is 76 percent to Obama’s 64 percent.

A University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research poll also released today shows Clinton leading Sen. Obama by 8 points, 47-39.

For more information on the Quinnipiac poll, http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1146

For more information on the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research poll, http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/op022508.pdf

[IndianaGreen]

1. Hillary was 20 points ahead less than a month ago

She is sinking in the polls.

[DemBones DemBones]

3. She's still ahead, though.

:kick:

[IndianaGreen]

8. Not for long!

And Pennsylvania is so far away!

[VolcanoJen]

42. Since Super Tuesday, she's always ahead in the polls a week out.

Then, when the votes are tallied, Obama beats her by double-digits.

It's really quite the phenomenon, and I'm working my ass off for a repeat in the Buckeye State! :-)

[jackson_dem]

55. Wrong

Since Super Tuesday she has trailed badly in polls in every state that has voted since ST with the exception of a few Wisconsin polls that showed her within 4-5.

Obama has closed but unless he has a monster debate tomorrow nothing will occur over the next week to give him momentum like 2/9, 2/12 and 2/17 did.

[VolcanoJen]

66. Except for all those speeches and big rallies that Hillary is so upset about, you mean?

We're just getting started in Ohio, just so you know. 1,000,000 doors to knock between Wednesday and Sunday... we are fired up!

I appreciate your enthusiasm for Hillary but the door is closing on her Ohio chances, and rapidly. I have yet to see a single Clinton canvasser, Honk-and-Wave, or event attended by more than a few thousand people.

Obama closes the gap when he hits the ground... and today in Cincinnati they had buses waiting outside the event to take Early Voters to the polls and bring them back to their cars. This ground operation of his is unlike anything I have ever, ever seen.

Go Ohio for Obama!!

[OzarkDem]

59. No her lead is steady

[book_worm]

2. Yeah, according to Q-poll Obama has cut Clinton's lead in half since there last poll!

GOBAMA!

[DemBones DemBones]

5. She's still ahead, though.

NOBAMA

[Occam Bandage]

6. So give it another week and he'll be leading.

[DemBones DemBones]

22. Be careful what you wish for, a McCain presidency could result.

That's the only reason I'm supporting Clinton: she can beat McCain.

[usregimechange]

40. Not according to the majority of head to heads I have seen.

[book_worm]

11. We got a week and besides Texas is looking good for Obama

and if Obama can get within five points in Ohio that will be viewed as a setback for Sen. Clinton.

[Botany]

4. I live in Ohio

Columbus, OH ..... Clintonville area ..... I see tons of Obama signs ....
I have seen one Hillary sign. Ron Paul signs are more common than
Hillary signs.

BTW Hillary has to win Ohio by >20 points and Texas too.

[DemBones DemBones]

10. Signs don't matter, only votes.

:kick:

[Botany]

19. How about a S.R.O. turn out for Obama volunteers @ a local union hall?

:bounce:

Hillary will be very lucky to win OH ... her latest act in Cincinnati last Saturday
is not playing w/ the locals.

[hogwyld]

29. In Hillary's world

Unions don't matter either.

[Sadie5]

37. Hurry Hurry

Tell us another damn lie...quickly. What do you base your post on. Hillary does care about unions.

[nels25]

21. A couple of things to consider

my wife comes from Ohio.

Hillary has to win very big with the better part of a 25 point measure, that is unlikely to happen.

There is a significant african-american population in the Cleveland and Dayton area (I am not sure about Columbus of Cincinnati) which will help Barack.

In Columbus you have the main Ohio state campus, another chance for Obama to limit Hillary's vote total.

I am no expert, but I just can not see any way she can win with a big enough margin to regain the momentum needed to stop the Obama express.

Unless she absolutely savages Barack in tomorrows night debate (and that could engender a backlash if she goes to far) she is toast.

At least that IMHO.



:hi:

[WolverineDG]

18. From the other Clinton Land of South Texas

Same thing happening here too. She might pull it off in South Texas, but she needs ass-kicking numbers to get enough delegates & quite frankly, that's not happening.

Oh yeah, & her machine boss politico friends she's depending on are jumping ship.

dg

[Botany]

23. Did I ever tell you that you are my Fav?

CNN Poll, Texas- Obama - 50%, Clinton - 46%

[WolverineDG]

28. Early projections had him 3% pts behind

still a dead heat, though. I thought Texas was supposed to be a walk for Clinton? :shrug:


dg

[Botany]

32. If both Ohio and Texas trends follow the rest of the nation Hillary

will lose both.

BTW are you working for Obama?

[WolverineDG]

33. Um, duh

got a women for obama meeting tonight. :) phonebanking & what all later this week. honking for hope on the weekends. sleep? what's that?

dg

[Botany]

36. are you a precinct capt.?

the #s I am hearing out of Texas as per volunteers for Obama are staggering.

Obama came into Ohio with ads and speeches ready to roll about NAFT ...
His organization is very impressive .... from what I can tell.

Hillary seems lost because she did not think it would go beyond 2/5/08.

[WolverineDG]

39. yes &

I'm a precinct chair. :evilgrin:

It's gonna be a long night.

dg

[Botany]

41. So you are a chair? roflmao

[VolcanoJen]

46. His ground organization in Cincinnati is like nothing I've ever seen before.

There were so many volunteers at the Walnut Hills HQ (Cincy has TWO HQ's, the other on UC Campus) that we were running out of stuff to get them to do.

And I've NEVER seen people so excited about the grunt work of canvassing! Our Obama Staffers also worked in Iowa, and they keep telling us that Canvassing, Phonebanking and Early Voting WORKS, and it KEEPS WORKING, so KEEP AT IT! :-)

They had buses lined up outside the arena in Cincinnati this afternoon to take anyone who wanted to vote early downtown to the Board of Elections, for example. I mean, it's just incredible.

Obama has 23 statewide headquarters to Clinton's 11. I think that's going to make a huge difference on Election Day, and I think the current polls aren't at all reflecting what I'm seeing on the ground here. And I hear Dayton is really rockin' and rollin'!

Go Ohio! Yes We Can!

[Botany]

48. From Columbus

Obama was up and going .... Office, volunteers, ads, and a targeted message (NAFTA)
before Hillary even opened her office here.

[Kukesa]

58. Same in Dayton. nt

[Obamaman2008]

71. She always has a big lead before the election, then they actually meet the candidates

and Hillary loses and Obama wins. That is the pattern.

[SKKY]

7. She can win Ohio by 11 points, and it's not even close to being enough...

...if she doesn't win Texas and Ohio by a 60/40 delegate split, she's done.

[backscatter712]

12. Exactly. The numbers don't lie.

If she doesn't win both Texas and Ohio by 25 point landslides, she's done.

[underpants]

9. She needs to win by 2 or 3 touchdowns

from what I understand.

This doesn't look good.

[SteppingRazor]

14. I thought she had to get at least four home runs?

:shrug:

[ORDem]

13. What's Quinnipiac's track record? What's UoC's record?

Typically university polls are not very accurate, but they do indicate trends.

[OhioChick]

15. Not So Fast.....

Poll: Obama Cuts Clinton Ohio Lead In Half

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3197513

[cali]

16. nope. not the newest. todays ppp poll

has him only 4 pts back, and they were the most accurate in Wisconsin. He's gonna win OH, and he's going to win in a blowout in TX. It's over.

[Kukesa]

20. Over 13,000 Obama supporters in Cinci today

at Fifth Third Arena.

Link here:

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/gov/2008/02/obama-campaigns-in-cincinnati.asp

(Don't tell OzarkDem)

He'll be in Dayton this evening and then in Columbus.

His Ohio poll numbers have no where to go but up.

[ORDem]

24. Damn! I thought Shrillary told him to knock off those big rallies!

:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :woohoo: :rofl:

[VolcanoJen]

26. Yup! And I'll bet even more come to the Dayton rally tonight.

It's tricky for a lot of us to attend a 2:00 pm rally on a Monday, especially when the news crews were warning everyone they'd be stuck in traffic until 5:00 after the rally, just in time for rush hour!

:-)

[Kukesa]

53. There wasn't any traffic in Cleveland

according to OD.

Yahoo's home page is featuring Obama LIVE in Dayton, at Nutter Center. The place has seating for 12,500 and is packed.

[SoxFan]

34. Where is Ozark Dem, anyway?

Must have gotten stuck i the Cincinatti traffic...

[tishaLA]

50. Shame on you., Barack Obama!

for continuing to hold those large rallies with those raucous crowds fully TWO DAYS after she told you not to! Why don't you get your heiney to Ohio and talk about your character? Do you hear me?


Don't think slamming that door is going to help you!

I mean it.

[Occam Bandage]

65. How was the traffic?

[CoffeeCat]

17. Yeah, but she had that lead in Wisconsin...

...two weeks before the election there.

Her lead in Ohio was 20+ points 10 days ago, so actually she's lost
about 10 points in the past week or two.

She's always ahead by 10 points, 2 weeks before the election happens.

The past 11 states, she's been ahead and slowly her lead erodes.

Ohio will be no different.

[VolcanoJen]

25. That's funny! My local paper headline read, "Clinton losing ground in new Ohio polls."

:-)

[OhioChick]

27. Same Here:

Poll: Obama Cuts Clinton Ohio Lead In Half

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3197513&mesg_id=3197513

[Drunken Irishman]

30. That is one way to spin it. Or you can spin it by saying: Obama surging, cutting into Clinton lead.

[milkyway]

31. Can you provide a link to the article that characterized this lead as "strong"?

I assume this is not your own language. I'm interested in knowing who has been so ignorant of this race that they would regard a Clinton lead of 11 and 8 points, with eight days before voting, as strong...a lead that one week ago was twice as big.

[MadHound]

35. Wow, talk about spin!

That is absolutely worthy of Faux News. You're state that Clinton is holding a strong lead, when the fact of the matter is that her lead, once hovering around twenty one percent, has now dropped like a rock, to the point where she now only holds an eleven point lead in one poll and an eight point lead in another.

Please, do yourself and the rest of Hillary's supporters a big favor, and deal with the reality of the situation. Hillary is holding onto a drastically shrinking lead just over a week out from the primary, and it's probably going to disappear altogether by the time the fourth gets here.

"Strong Ohio Lead":eyes:

[Common Sense Party]

38. She should just withdraw and save everybody the trouble.

Right?

[Thickasabrick]

43. Excellent plan

[MadHound]

60. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, yes

Her chances right now are slim, very slim. Right now she has to take each and every state from here on by sixty percent or more, doubtful that she can do this, but miracles have happened. If she loses either of the next two states, her winning percentage goes up to a range between sixty five and seventy percent, an impossibility. She would, at that point, do well to pull out, otherwise she's just going to tear this party in two and enable McCain to walk into the White House.

[Obamaniac]

44. Those are shit!

Obama is closing...FAST! There's still 8 days left. At this rate, especially with his superior organization, he'll catch her and win.

[rodeodance]

47. oh doggy doo!!

[jefferson_dem]

45. Hillary is the clear frontrunner and should be expected to win, by large margins.

I just hope Obama can keep it close.

[kid a]

51. yep! let us not forget this truth...WORK AND DON"T LET UP

[arewenotdemo]

52. You're cracking me up, jefferson_dem!

[WolverineDG]

54. Yeah, she was projected to take Texas by 3%

and now she's behind 4.


dg

[jefferson_dem]

63. Project this.

[WolverineDG]

69. He's ahead by 1 in your own projection!

started out behind Clinton, now he's passed her. Still no sign of any ground operation by Clinton in South Texas. Obama is everywhere.

Nice try.

dg

[jefferson_dem]

72. But it's always been "her turn"...

She'll be the front-runner until she concedes...

[adoraz]

49. lol, when hillary keeps her lead for a couple days it is always great news

i think most other newer ohio polls have them closer anyways.

[OzarkDem]

57. These are the newest polls

and they show no change in the last week. Her lead is solid.

[OzarkDem]

56. Thanks for posting!

Both polls show Ohio remains strong for Clinton. Obama isn't making headway here, not even in the AA community.

[MadHound]

61. Really? A month ago Hillary's lead was at twenty one percent

Now she's down to single digits. Hmm, for not making headway, Obama is looking pretty strong.

[cd3dem]

62. I don't know why people feel the need to intimidate people into voting for Obama

and frankly do not understand why people fall for it! we have been reduced to being treated like we must be racist if we do not vote for Obama. maybe, I care enough about the country to want it run by someone who has the experience to understand the job and handle the problems we will face. Obama and his people handle problems by avoiding them and name calling.

read this... I love this lady!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/25/opinion/25ferraro.html?pagewanted=1&th&emc=th

[VolcanoJen]

67. Not even in the AA community?

Is this a joke post, or something? Where, exactly, in Ohio is Obama not making headway?

12,000 in Cincinnati and 13,000 (plus huge crowd outside) in Dayton. I'd say he's "making headway."

And where's Clinton's ground game? It hasn't hit The 'Nati yet, that's for sure.

[Thrill]

64. By next week it will be down another 10

[totodeinhere]

68. Even if these polls are accurate,

which I doubt, it won't matter because if she only wins in Ohio by that much she won't pick up enough delegates to make a difference. She must win both Texas and Ohio by big margins to have a chance, and those Ohio polls you cite don't show her winning by a big enough margin. Plus you very conveniently leave out Texas polls showing Obama either tied with or leading Clinton.

[thevoiceofreason]

70. Not that strong

I think now that when the dust settles, Obama will win more delegates from the Texas/Ohio combo than Hill will.

[apocalypsehow]

73. So, Ohio still counts, for now. Good to know.

n/t

[elixir]

74. Thanks for this, great.

[Johnny__Motown]

75. Check the previous leads, she is steadly losing ground with a week to go

Quinnipiac University
Date: 2/6-12
Ohio
Added: 2/14/08
Est. MoE = 2.3%

Hillary Clinton 55%
Barack Obama 34%
Unsure 9%
Other 2%



Much older one, but Obama only at 19% in this one


Quinnipiac University Poll
Mid-date: 12/1/2007
Ohio
w/o Al Gore
Added:/8/07
Est. MoE = 4.7%

Hillary Clinton 45%
Barack Obama 19%
John Edwards 13%
Joe Biden 3%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Bill Richardson 1%
Chris Dodd 1%
Unsure 13%
Wouldn't Vote 1%
Source



http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html


The lead won't hold, even if she does squeak out a win the margin will be small. Also she is losing Texas already and even Bill admits that Texas is a must win.


Enjoy your last week of the Clinton era, and good luck to you