LAT analysis: Florida, 2004 (Bush advantage)

[DeepModem Mom]

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE
Key Florida Voting Bloc Up for Grabs
Bush and Kerry hope unaffiliated voters in the likely battleground state will swing their way.

By John-Thor Dahlburg and Edwin Chen, Times Staff Writers


....The final arbiter of the candidates' chances may be what's known in Florida's political shorthand as NPAs — for "no party affiliation." These swelling numbers of residents without formal Republican or Democratic ties now account for more than 17% of Florida's voters....

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Experts...caution against vesting (polls showing Kerry ahead) with too much significance.

They note that while registered Democrats still narrowly outnumber Republicans in the state, the GOP has narrowed the gap since 2000. The Republicans slightly increased their share of registered voters to almost 39%. Democrats account for 42% of the registered voters, a drop of more than 1 percentage point since 2000.

Also, the state has gained more than 200,000 jobs since Bush took office.

"At this moment, Bush has the advantage," said (David Niven, professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton), echoing the conclusion of a majority of the analysts interviewed by the Los Angeles Times. "The president is likely to eke out a victory."...

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(The article quotes James Witt, former professor of government at the University of West Florida in Pensacola, as saying that Florida Democrats, however, are better led and organized than they were when Jeb Bush easily won re-election in 2002, and "should benefit from lingering resentment" over the 2000 election.)


http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-florida20mar20,1,7496520.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[The Backlash Cometh]

1. This NP says that Bush isn't well liked.

And the surge of Republicans is due to the transplants/retirees from the deep South and shallow North-East.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Other info in the article supports your assessment:

"A poll earlier this month gave Kerry the lead in the state over Bush, 49% to 43%. The Miami Herald-St. Petersburg Times survey found that Floridians were increasingly critical of Bush for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq.

According to the poll, a majority of Florida voters now believe the country under Bush is 'moving in the wrong direction,' a dramatic change from two years ago, when 7 in 10 of those surveyed approved of his performance in the White House."

[Racenut20]

3. The best way to fight Bush in 04 in Florida

Is to set up PAC's and expose the wacky stuff coming out of the Republican legislature and signed by Jeb this spring. If anyone has the expertise (legal) to set one up, I would do the work to operate and see if it can be gotten off the ground.

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. For a better response,

You should start a new thread in a forum where you'll get the best coverage.