Some numbers.

[tekisui]

For consistency I used only numbers from CNN. CBS,Yahoo, and Green Papers all have slightly different counts. I chose CNN because it feel in the middle.


Current Delegate Count:

BO- 1262(160 being SD's)
HC- 1213(235 being SD's)

Needed to secure Nomination:

BO- 763
HC- 812

If SD's break at the same percentage they are currently, the remaining 401 SD's would end up like this:

HC- 241 more-- 571 Delegates needed to secure
BO- 162 more-- 601 Delegates needed to secure

1149 pledged delegates remain up for grabs. For Obama to secure the Nomination he needs 52% of the Pledged Delegates from here on out. Clinton would need 50% of the Pledged Delegates from here on out.

Add in the disputed FL and MI delegates(as they stand), a gain of 172 goes to Clinton, and 72 would go to Obama, but the new number needed to secure the nomination would be 2208. An additional 183 Delegates would be needed by either candidate. Clinton would still be 11 shy, Obama would be 111 shy. This is without the 102 uncommitted from those two states being factored in. Or, John Edwards 26 Pledged Delegates.

FL and MI cannot be allowed to decide the outcome of the Nomination. They will chose a fair way to seat their delegates without overruling the legitimate votes.

[tekisui]

1. Kick. Can Hillary win 50%+ from here on out?

[mrreowwr_kittty]

7. Assuming the SD scenario of the OP.

I see Barack getting more SDs than that.

[tekisui]

9. Exactly. It doesn't look good for Clinton.

[LiberalFighter]

2. Don't forget that IF IF Florida and/or Michigan were included...

the number of votes needed to win will be higher.

That would also depend on what the seated delegates agree to allow.

If they would agree that:

1) All FL and MI delegates were seated

2) All but unpledged delegates

3) 50% of the pledged and none of the unpledged

4) Release all the pledged delegates from their pledge

5) 50% of the pledged delegates but released from their pledge

[slick8790]

3. Flawed logic.

You assume SDs will continue to break for Hillary, which there is no evidence of. In fact, lately there has been evidence of the contrary, that Clinton SDs are switching to Obama. SDs won't support a candidate who loses popular vote and pledged delegates.

[tekisui]

4. Hey, I was giving Hillary the benefit here.

You got my point. I don't see how she can pull it off. She needs the SD's at the same rate, PLUS 50+% of the votes from here on out.

[slick8790]

5. Gonna be higher than that 50% soon too.

When Obama wins WI and HI, presumably by similar large margins as of late, it'll probably jump higher.

[tekisui]

6. AND he has closed the gap in TX.

[Thepricebreaker]

8. Problem is SD's are going Obama's way now.. leaving Hillary.