How did Jeb win in '02?

[fujiyama]

I was curious, considering it wasn't that far from the recount and the (s)election, how did Jeb win? I would have figured democrats would be revved up and motivated to get rid of him.

I've heard some saying it was Diebold and voting problemsa...and someone else said the party was fractured between mcbride and reno.

So, what are our chances? If the vote there is fair, i'm pretty confident we have a good chance there...Just thinking there will be some 18,000+ voters screwed by the butterfly ballots, some 50,000+ Nader voters that won't make the same mistake again, and then various democrats that voted bush because he fooled them into thinking he was some sort of moderate.

So, I say we don't put all eggs in that basket, but definetely place SOME. This is a state that IS in play. We can't let panaoia scare us away from the state. It has 27 EVs, which means we could lose one or two Gore states, and still win. OH is a good place to put some resouces in as well, but it doesn't offer quite the pay off and it wasn't nearly as close as FL in '00.

[arcos]

1. cheating n/t

[Florida_Geek]

2. Touchscreens are a major reason

The Class Size Adm. which Jeb was against passed with around 54% of the vote. McBride was for it but lost by 14%.

Another reason was the Teachers Union. McBride beat Reno with a professional as his campaign manager. But going into the race against Jeb, the Teachers Union demanded that they pick his campaign manager and did with a person that never ran a major campaign.

While the Teacher's Union IMHO did hurt McBride, I think Jeb's Touchscreen friends were the major reason.

[watercolors]

3. We had a lousy dem candidate

That was it. the party was not together and they did not get out to vote! Lets hope this time it works better. We have a good candidate, people are worse off than ever, good jobs are hard to find, seniors are having great difficulty with medical and drug prices, the list goes on. Kerry has to work the state, and of course we don't know who our VP will yet.
I am in great hopes that we will give the state to Kerry. WE ALL have to do our part, volunteer, help get the vote out, drive people to the polls, work at your local party office, etc. Just don't sit there and hope for the best. It is ours if we want it!

[JohnLocke]

7. McBride was an awful candidate.

[AP]

12. I wonder what a Reno-Bush race would have been like.

[izzie]

11. Was it Reno?

I forget

[Gore1FL]

4. 2002 had no Democratic Party

We were the we are just like the Republicans, except with less influence Party.

IMO this affected turnout which then caused an impact on races where their was more of a contrast.

The Dems blew 2002 though miscalculation, stupid assumptions, and bad luck.

[trumad]

5. The Media...Period!

From our local biased papers who want to kiss Jebs ass to the National Media in the form of Tim Russert... They had a huge influence in the election.

[JCMach1]

8. State Democratic operatives actually told candidates not to attack

JEBtm or George...

That was the MANTRA...

I didn't believe a word of it, of course, and continued my attacks on JEBtm.

[JCMach1]

6. BBV and the Split with Reno

The Democratic party was split and McBride did nothing/little to heal it. He picked Rossin (an old-time-- very white moderate as Lt. Gov.). That pick did NOTHING to heal the divide or get any momentum back for the campaign. Add to that a lackluster debate performance by McBride and well you get the picture. It was also clear that during the Russert moderated debate that JEB had seen the video-taped questions in advance. Add BBV on top of that and you get JEBtm overkill which is what happened.

I was heavily involved with his campaign and my own for the legislature. That's my take anyway.

[MoonRiver]

9. I'm curious as to whether a big Dem turn-out/vote in FL

can overcome BBV. This is a national issue, but the Puke machine in FL seems especially well greased.

[Orangepeel]

10. A bunch of reasons. The DNC was a major one.

1. After the primary, the DNC took over and fucked it up. They were camped in Tampa the whole time and completely took over. They fired the campaign manager who had helped him erase a 50 point deficit in the primary, developed awful ads (jeb on video praising McBride? What the hell? Most people thought it was an ad for jeb), and just completely took over. (Also, the McBride campaign hired a bunch of Reno's ex-staffers in an effort to heal, but since they had just run the worst primary campaign in the history of the world, they didn't help much).

2. Jeb has always been more popular in Florida than his brother. He is much more articulate, fluent in Spanish (he has a Mexican wife, even though they rarely let her out in public) and much smarter. He is viewed as being "from" Miami, which cuts into our South Florida base.

3. McBride wasn't a great candidate. I love McBride and worked my ass off for him, but he picked a running mate that did nothing to excite the base (even though he would have helped him govern well given all his legislative experience) and did a lousy job at the last debate. (I still believe that Reno would have been worse, but you can't look down the road not taken).

4. Voting problems. I don't necessarily subscribe to theories that the machines were fixed (I believe that touchscreen machines could be fixed but have seen no hard evidence that they were). But there was definately confusion, along with a 19 page ballot in Broward County because of all the initiatives. That certainly kept people in our best county away.

[Florida_Geek]

13. I posted about the TS and Teachers Union already

While McBride did have Vets behind him, he could have picked a better running mate than a Old White Guy.

[AP]

14. McBride was TERRIBLE in the debate. Just AWFUL.

He seemed confused and he didn't sound smart at all.

[Orangepeel]

15. Yep.

It was really a shame, too, because the man is actually brilliant, if not particularly glib (he isn't a trial lawyer; his background is in corporate law)

Of course, he was the candidate and it is his fault that he wasn't adequately prepped. But, a large part of the problem was the DNC strategy to keep him from looking "slick" (boy, did they manage to do that).

[Cuban_Liberal]

16. Musta been the huge Democratic groundswell...

... that all the 'Graham for VP' folks keep telling us about...