Why Do SUSA Polls Favor Clinton and Zogby and Rasmussen Favor Obama?

[Bullet1987]

I don't get it. Sampling different groups more than others? Different methodologies? SUSA was the first major polling company to show the elusive Clinton post-debate bump while none of the others did. Now they show big wins for Clinton in states Zogby and Ras show Obama either leading or neck-and-neck.

I don't fucking get it. One of these groups are dead wrong...

[gasoline highway]

1. This election has been like no other...

The demographs of voters has changed, there is no way for them to accurately predict who will come out to vote.

[sunonmars]

2. Susa has been known to be the most reliable of all polling actually, its no1

I think its the most trusted. If it is the most accurate , Obama needs to be worried.

[NJSecularist]

4. Do you make state up on the fly?

There have been 4 other polls that have told us that California is a dead heat, and now we are supposed to believe Survey USA, who has been wrong before?

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. well of course it is....

:eyes:

[Bullet1987]

6. It's not like Zogby and Rasmussen are bum pollsters though...

Now, ARG can go kick rocks for all I care.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Even Survey USA shows itself as not being the #1 poll in the nation.

They rank 14th...

You were saying?

[JackORoses]

9. do you have any evidence for these statements, or are they just to make you feel better?

[Azathoth]

16. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Man, you guys just make shit up at the drop of a dime. :rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Let's not forget the California Field Poll.

Which had Obama down 2. It's important to know the California Field Poll is the most respected poll in the state.

Really, only one poll shows Clinton blowing Obama out in California: SUSA.

Rasmussen, Suffolk, Field, Zogby and the MSNBC polls all have Obama with the lead, or in striking distance.

So either Survey USA is right on and will be the only poll showing Clinton doing well, or they're going to have egg on their face Wednesday morning.

[Barack_America]

7. Zogby and Rassmussen make sure to poll...

Independents and "Unaffiliateds" (for NJ) when they can participate in a state's Democratic primary.

These SUSA polls have no methodology and no MOE, so I don't know how they're done.

Given that, I trust Zogby and Rassmussen more.

[tandem5]

10. I doesn't matter - I just look at trends between polls of the same company...

mixing polls, for example, like the way realclearpolitics.com does is kinda misleading in terms of figuring out which way things are going.

[mohc]

11. The SUSA Crosstabs do not seem to line up with others either

It has Obama scraping by with the 18-34 group 49-46, losing whites 48-43, and doing better among early voters than those that plan to vote on Tuesday.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5fb08a99-97a2-4e13-a586-d2ed83c3ceea">Crosstabs

[Tropics_Dude83]

12. Maybe SUSA gave Hillary 10-15 extra points on her early voting lead. N/T

[mohc]

14. Actually

It has her leading 12% in early voting, and 14% in likely voting tomorrow. Based on other polling of likely voters, if Clinton is only leading 12% in early voting, she is not going to win. Can anyone answer how MoE works in this kind of a poll? They basically were exit polling early voters and polling likely voters at the same time, does this effect MoE calculations?

[loveangelc]

13. Hillary will not lose by that little the youth vote....I don't really think I believe this one,

but we'll see..

[CreekDog]

15. Aren't the likely voter models really tricky in a primary, especially one like this

with lots of open and semi open primaries and not knowing what unaffiliated voters will do?

second is aren't registered voter only polls less reliable in an election like this since behavior in a primary is so different than a general election?

[jkshaw]

17. Bullet, I wonder if it could be the questions?

Or the phrasing of the questions? I've wondered the same thing.