Obama will win SC..unless...

[KennedyGuy]

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/01/25/so-its-all-settled-then-obama-will-win-tomorrows-sc-primary-unless/

"Last time 14 pollsters all told you that Barack Obama would win a Primary, all 14 were wrong. That was the day before New Hampshire, 18 days ago.

History has an opportunity to repeat itself this weekend: 7 8 9 pollsters are working the South Carolina Democratic Primary, and all 7 8 9 have Barack Obama ahead.

At this hour, subject to possible late releases by competing firms, here is the pollster line-up, ranked from largest Obama advantage to smallest:


Public Policy Polling has Obama + 20.
Zogby has Obama +13 + 16.
Rasmussen has Obama + 15.
SurveyUSA has Obama +13.
American Research Group has Obama + 6 + 13.
Insider Advantage has Obama + 10.
Ron Lester & Associates has Obama + 10.
Mason Dixon has Obama + 8.
Clemson University has Obama + 7.
There are a number of differences between New Hampshire and South Carolina. New Hampshire is largely white. South Carolina has a significant African American population which, in a Democratic primary may account for 40% to 55% of the votes, depending on turnout. Both New Hampshire and South Carolina have open primaries, but New Hampshire held both primaries on the same day, and South Carolina has spaced its primaries a week apart, so that Republicans voted on 01/19/08 and Democrats vote on 01/26/08. The significance of this, and the opportunity it presents for mischief, and strategic voting, should not be discounted.

The number of Independent voters in South Carolina is smaller than in New Hampshire, but the South Carolina Independents vote differently than do the registered Democrats, so even a small number of Independents can torque the outcome.

SurveyUSA wrote yesterday about late momentum for John Edwards, and how that appears to be coming at the expense of Hillary Clinton.

In SurveyUSA’s final data set, released today, Edwards continues to be the only candidate moving up. Both Obama and Clinton are moving sideways, or slightly down.

Obama gets 3 of 4 black votes.
Clinton and Edwards together split 3 of 4 white votes.
All pollsters will be a lot smarter tomorrow night"

[ccpup]

1. Barack will win SC

but it won't be enough to make up the deficits he's facing in many of the Super Tuesday States where Clinton is polling above the margin of error and continues to show strong support with groups he's still not connecting with (and won't in SC).

One win in a State dominated by a voting bloc overwhelmingly supportive of him isn't going to change much in the rest of the country with regards to Barack. He has a lot of work left to do and not much time to do it.

[Rock_Garden]

2. Whichever way it goes, the pollsters didn't learn much from New Hampshire, did they?

[sam sarrha]

3. .what if they find out about this.... ...>>Link>>

the media is stealing this election in the primaries..


http://zmagsite.zmag.org/Feb2007/street0207.html

[saltpoint]

4. It's possible that the polling is awry but it would have to be REALLY awry to

deny Sen. Obama a win at just after 7:00 p.m. Eastern this evening in South Carolina.

From available evidence, it appears that Democrats from the state that fired on Fort Sumpter are about to hand Barack Obama their considerable support.

[suston96]

5. Here.....

Total registered voters in SC: 2,246,242. http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/96vr?countykey=ALL&D1=RACE

Total voted in Repub primary: 442,789

That leaves: 1,803,453

Of that # non-white voters: 629,000. Obama gets 3 of 4? 471,000

That leaves total white voters 1,174,353. Clinton/Edwards split 3 of 4? 440,000 each.

(Non-white voters in SC have shown up by some 20% more than white voters).

So turnout by the different groups will be essential in determining who wins.