Thinking ahead to SUPER TUESDAY: Delegate estimates

[FlyingSquirrel]

This is very much simplified and based only on the most recent polls in each Super Tuesday state - many of which have not been polled recently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Arizona

The overall average of these polls has Clinton at 42%, Obama at 27%, Edwards at 12%, and Other/Undecided at 19%. For purposes of Delegate estimates, in states where there has been NO polling data I've used those percentages to input an estimate.

Superdelegates have NOT been included in my totals, since they can and DO often change their minds based upon what happens in the primaries and caucuses.

Current Delegate totals, by the way, are Clinton 37, Obama 37, Edwards 18 -- again not counting superdelegates, or the results of SC.

SUPER TUESDAY

State, Delegates / Clinton % C Del. / Obama % O Del. / Edwards % E Del. / Undecided-Other % UO Del.

Alabama, 52 / 34 18 / 36 19 / 9 5 / 21 11
Alaska, 13 / 42 5 / 27 4 / 12 2 / 19 2
American Samoa, 3 / 42 1 / 27 1 / 12 0 / 19 1
Arizona, 56 / 41 23 / 23 13 / 14 8 / 22 12
Arkansas, 35 / 49 17 / 16 6 / 12 4 / 23 8
California, 370 / 38 141 / 33 122 / 12 44 / 17 63
Colorado, 55 / 29 16 / 23 13 / 23 13 / 25 14
Connecticut, 48 / 42 20 / 16 8 / 8 4 / 34 16
Delaware, 15 / 41 6 / 17 3 / 7 1 / 35 5
Democrats Abroad, 7 / 42 3 / 27 2 / 12 1 / 19 1
Georgia, 87 / 36 31 / 33 29 / 14 12 / 17 15
Idaho, 18 / 33 6 / 31 6 / 15 3 / 21 4
Illinois, 153 / 50 77 / 25 38 / 7 11 / 18 28
Kansas, 32 / 27 9 / 22 7 / 21 7 / 30 10
Massachusetts, 93 / 37 34 / 25 23 / 14 13 / 24 22
Minnesota, 72 / 42 30 / 27 19 / 12 9 / 19 14
Missouri, 72 / 36 26 / 21 15 / 20 14 / 23 17
New Jersey, 107 / 42 45 / 30 32 / 9 10 / 19 20
New Mexico, 26 / 42 11 / 27 7 / 12 3 / 19 5
New York, 232 / 56 130 / 29 67 / 8 19 / 7 16
North Dakota, 13 / 42 5 / 27 4 / 12 2 / 19 2
Oklahoma, 38 / 45 17 / 19 7 / 25 10 / 11 4
Tennessee, 68 / 35 24 / 20 14 / 20 14 / 25 17
Utah, 23 / 31 7 / 18 4 / 9 2 / 42 10

Total, 1,688 / 42 703 / 27 461 / 12 208 / 19 317

I have no idea what "Democrats Abroad" is. ;-) Also, again this is VERY simplified - it makes the assumption that delegates would be awarded based on actual percentages, which clearly is not the case in all states. Also makes the assumption that polls that are months old are accurate. So why even bother? 'cause it's fun. And because it allows me to make the following point:

After Super Tuesday, if 50% of the Undecided/Other vote went to Edwards, with the other 50% evenly split between Clinton and Obama, we could see the following Delegate totals (again not counting Superdelegates):

Clinton 819, Obama 577, Edwards 384; with 1,374 delegates still up for grabs among remaining states.

Edwards could still be in the race.

[Konza]

1. dems abroad is expats, folks overseas

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Ah, many thanks!

:thumbsup:

[Konza]

4. NP, i think they get mail in ballots, not sure the mechanics of it.

[Essene]

3. 1688 total? I dont think that's right.

[Konza]

5. that's what's up on ST

it's gonna be crazy

[Konza]

6. Just a further break down

see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Phase_three:_Super_Tuesday

So on Super Tuesday we will choose: 1688 Pledged Delegates

For the Rest of Feb: 447

March: 415

April/June: 512

It's madness!

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. Update

Had a couple of numbers switched. Also Obama has slightly narrowed the gap overall between himself and HRC - Old: Clinton 42%, Obama 27%. New: Clinton 40%, Obama 30%.

Note: Due to rounding, some "Undecided/Other" delegate estimates may bring total to 1 more than the state actually has.

SUPER TUESDAY

State, Delegates // Clinton % C Del. / Obama % O Del. / Edwards % E Del. / Undecided-Other % UO Del.

Alabama, 52 // 34 18 / 36 19 / 9 5 / 21 11
Alaska, 13 // 40 5 / 30 4 / 12 2 / 18 2
American Samoa, 3 // 40 1 / 30 1 / 12 0 / 18 1
Arizona, 56 // 41 23 / 23 13 / 14 8 / 22 12
Arkansas, 35 // 49 17 / 16 6 / 12 4 / 23 8
California, 370 // 38 141 / 33 122 / 12 44 / 17 63
Colorado, 55 // 36 20 / 20 10 / 19 10 / 25 14
Connecticut, 48 // 41 20 / 27 13 / 9 4 / 23 11
Delaware, 15 // 41 6 / 17 3 / 7 1 / 35 5
Democrats Abroad, 7 // 40 3 / 30 2 / 12 1 / 18 1
Georgia, 87 // 33 29 / 36 31 / 14 12 / 17 15
Idaho, 18 // 31 6 / 33 6 / 15 3 / 21 4
Illinois, 153 // 25 38 / 50 77 / 7 11 / 18 28
Kansas, 32 // 27 9 / 22 7 / 21 7 / 30 10
Massachusetts, 93 // 56 52 / 23 21 / 14 13 / 7 7
Minnesota, 72 // 47 34 / 22 16 / 16 12 / 15 11
Missouri, 72 // 36 26 / 21 15 / 20 14 / 23 17
New Jersey, 107 // 42 45 / 30 32 / 9 10 / 19 20
New Mexico, 26 // 23 6 / 19 5 / 18 5 / 40 10
New York, 232 // 56 130 / 29 67 / 8 19 / 7 16
North Dakota, 13 // 40 5 / 30 4 / 12 2 / 18 2
Oklahoma, 38 // 45 17 / 19 7 / 25 10 / 11 4
Tennessee, 68 // 35 24 / 20 14 / 20 14 / 25 17
Utah, 23 // 31 7 / 18 4 / 9 2 / 42 10

Total, 1,688 / 40 680 / 30 499 / 12 211 / 18 298

Totals on ST if Edwards gains 50% of Undecided/Other and BO/HRC split the rest:

Clinton 741, Obama 497, Edwards 375, with 1374 delegates still up for grabs.

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States in which Edwards has least chance of picking up 15%, based on polls:

Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Connecticut, Delaware, Democrats Abroad, North Dakota, Utah

DELEGATES HE WOULD LOSE from above total if he got zero in those states: 17! Not bad huh?

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. Update update

(whoops)

Estimates after Super Tuesday:

Clinton 716, Obama 537, Edwards 229, Undecided/Other 298

Numbers if 50% undecided/other broke for Edwards, with remainder split between HRC/BO:

Clinton 791, Obama 612, Edwards 378

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In addition to projected 17 delegates lost if Edwards did not gain 15% in the states listed above in "Update", he would also lose another 22 delegates from "Undecided/Other" projections; bringing his total delegate count down to 339.