NYT: New York now in play?

[TeamJordan23]

Obama Giving Clinton a Race in Her Backyard
By SAM ROBERTS

With Senator Barack Obama vowing to challenge Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on her home turf, the Democratic presidential primary in New York on Feb. 5 is shaping up as the state’s most competitive since 1992, when Bill Clinton took up a rival’s mantra of change to all but cinch the nomination.

Mrs. Clinton was re-elected a little more than a year ago by better than two to one. Before the Iowa caucuses, she had so dominated opinion polls and endorsements by elected officials and powerful unions that many considered her home state impregnable to political interlopers.

But if Mr. Obama wins the South Carolina primary in two weeks, he could develop enough grass-roots support among young people, liberals and black voters in New York to pose a serious threat to her claim to the state’s rich delegate lode, allies of both candidates say.

“The expectation is that Hillary should win in New York,” said Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV of Harlem, an Obama supporter. “As you know, expectations don’t always translate into votes, and so we’re going to fight in New York.”

While Mrs. Clinton’s supporters say they are certain she will win the state and, with it, the bulk of its 281 delegates, they acknowledge that to keep Mr. Obama from running even a close second, she may have to invest more precious time and money here. Twenty-one other states, including New Jersey and Connecticut, also hold primaries on Feb. 5.

“Clearly they’re going to make a humongous effort to make sure that doesn’t happen,” said State Senator Bill Perkins of Harlem, an Obama supporter.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” said Blake Zeff, the Clinton campaign’s communications director in New York. Representative Charles B. Rangel of Harlem, one of Mrs. Clinton’s earliest supporters, predicted that she would do “extremely well — after all, she’s our ‘favorite daughter.’ She’s better known and she’s earned the right to our support.”

But, Mr. Rangel acknowledged, “Obama’s electric campaign will stimulate a big turnout.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/us/politics/12york.html?ei=5065&en=2343741b56849024&ex=1200805200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

[antiimperialist]

1. The headline is very misleading. Hillary is comfortably ahead of Obama in the polls

When you read the body of the article, the argument the author makes is that IF Obama South Carolina then he COULD make it a race.
But the headline implies that it is already a competitive race, which it isn't.
Survey USA released a poll yesterday where Clinton lead 56% to 29% ahead of Obama.

[Clarkansas]

2. I really doubt he has a shot in New York, though I am glad he isn't conceding it.

ABC.
Anyone
But
Clinton

[Essene]

4. He does now. Attacking MLK and trying to split latinos and blacks? Come on...

NYC voters are going to turn on her if she doesn't do damage control and reel these operatives in.

[BringBigDogBack]

8. With you.

[Essene]

3. Her smearing and racial divisiveness can lose her more than NY

Consider what happened in 2001 here in the mayoral race.

The white politician pushed ahead of the latino contender in the Democratic primary by getting very nasty and pushing racist literature around the city. This caused a huge outcry in a city already wounded and emotionally spent (9/11).

In the end, the election that would have easily been won by a democrat was won by Mike Bloomberg. Voter turn-out was so low, especially among minorities, that there were actualyl more people voting in the democratic primary than voted for Mike Bloomberg.

What Hillary's doing is going to tear this nation apart and undermine any chance at a Dem victory.

Here's a review of her smearing... i may have missed stuff...


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FACT CHECK UPDATES:


### He's likely to get assassinated.

Yes, somebody who introduced Hillary Clinton emphasized the comparison with JFK and how he got killed. “Some people compare one of the other candidates to John F. Kennedy. But he was assassinated." The Clinton admin distanced themselves from his comments, calling them inappropriate, but the damage was done. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/civilrights/

### He's no MLK.

She dissed MLK first of all, suggesting REAL change only happened because of President Johnson not MLK's dream. She then implied that he doesn't remotely compare to MLK or Kennedy. "“You know, today Senator Obama used President John F. Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to criticize me. He basically compared himself to our greatest heroes because they gave great speeches." Think about what she's actually saying. Sad. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/civilrights/

Think about it...

“Dr. King’s dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act.” “It took a president to get it done.”

“You know, today Senator Obama used President John F. Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to criticize me. He basically compared himself to our greatest heroes because they gave great speeches. President Kennedy was in Congress for 14 years. He was a war hero. He was a man of great accomplishments and readiness to be president. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. led a movement. He was gassed. He was beaten. He was jailed. And he gave a speech that was one of the most beautifully, profoundly important speeches ever written in America, the “I have a dream” speech. And then he worked with President Johnson to get the civil rights laws passed, because the dream couldn’t be realized until finally it was legally permissible for people of all colors and backgrounds and races and ethnicities to be accepted as citizens."

### Al qaeda will strike!!

"Look what happened in Great Britain," she said. "Tony Blair leaves, Gordon Brown comes in, the very next day, there are terrorist attacks... So you've got to be prepared on Day One with everything ready to go." Sorry, but that's a disgraceful comment, directly suggesting terrorist will strike with the election of Obama. http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0801/05/cnr.06.html

### Flip flopper.

Just watch the ABC debate from 1/5/08. She repeated this charge in various ways, although in fairness she did get into specifics in a few cases (which i think is fair game if you challenge the record itself on the issues). However, for a couple months... this has been her primary charge against him. http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4092530

### Male chuavanism and the gender card.

Folks may reasonably disagree on the interpretation, but she's clearly playing the gender card lately - even implied that her gender alone equates to meaningful change in the White House (just imagine the outcry if Obama said that about being black). She said that in the 1/5/08 debate. Similarly, the spin out of NH is that his comment was rude and poor Hillary's being beaten up on by the boys *tear*. That's how i intepret this spin, and it seems very clear to me. And if you question her crying about her campaign hardships, she implies THAT is male chuavanism too. http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4092530 & http://bourbonroom.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/01/07/clintons-candid-assessment/

And additionally... i'd like to just focus on this clip from the NH Debate. She was attacked on the issue of likability. She joked that he's likable. He DEFENDED HER in return. She even says "i appreciate that," yet all the Clinton spin doctors (and Rove) are trying to pretend he attacked her. Watch for yourself and be honest. These 2 were just handling an obnoxious question with grace, but now the Clinton base is trying to turn this into a chuavanistic attack by him? Get real. Watch it. It was friendly. http://youtube.com/watch?v=Ac7RuzYvtCw

### Bush 3.0

"He’s very likable . I agree with that…. You know, in 2000 we, unfortunately, ended up with a president who people said they wanted to have a beer with." “I think it’s good to have a likeable president. But if I remember right, many people said they wanted to have a beer with George W. Bush. Maybe they should’ve left it at that – have a beer, don’t vote him in as our president.” It's a slick way to deflect the likability argument, but she even tries to imply this has policy implications, electing an inexperienced guy just because he's likable.

### False hope.

"An untested man who offers false hope." "We don't need to be raising the false hopes of our country about what can be delivered." Clinton herself said this. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4088317&page=1 & http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_01/012851.php

### Obama lacks depth and reality.

"On a lot of these issues it is hard to know where he stands, and people need to ask that." "As famously was said years ago, 'Where's the beef?'" Clinton said that herself. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4088317&page=1

### Obama is soft on crime.

"Mandatory minimums take too much discretion away from judges." "Barack Obama's kind of change is where you sit down and you cut a deal with the corporate world." http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4088317&page=1 & http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/04/hillary-hits-obama-for-op_n_79918.html

### Obama is just poetry.

She's been stumping with comments about how he's just talking poetry and she's ready to govern with prose. Cute. " a doer, not a talker." http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080107/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_rdp

### Obama is just a fairy tale.

Bill Clinton's rant the other day that i think shocked more than a few of us. Clinton flat out called Obama a liar, said he was a fairy tale. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLDx4NZr2u4

### Obama is in this still because of blind media.

Bill Clinton also suggested it was "wrong" that Obama has been able to get through 15 debates without being called a liar by the press. He implies the blind, uncritical media is the problem. "The press never reported on" yadda yadda. "Give me a break!" He thought Hillary was going to lose NH and was basically blaming the media for this "fairy tale." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLDx4NZr2u4

### Obama is too conservative.

They claimed he was "unwilling to take a stand on choice." His controversial gay marriage position is a legitimate issue, for sure, but they've tried to paint him as too conservative. http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/hillary_mailer_hits_obama_on_abortion.php

### Muslim extremist.

Several Clinton campaign folks were removed over this. One may argue this absolves her from responsibility, yet anybody paying attention realizes this smear is arguably one of higher impact ones. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/10/second-clinton-volunteer-_n_76047.html

### Drug record makes him unelectable.

Top Clinton advisor steps down after making various arguments about how Obama can't get elected due to his drug use. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/13/clinton.obama/

### Obama is too liberal.

"Hillary's aides point to Obama's extremely progressive record as a community organizer, state senator and candidate for Congress, his alliances with 'left-wing' intellectuals in Chicago's Hyde Park community, and his liberal voting record on criminal defendants' rights as subjects for examination." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/04/new-hampshire-will-be-key_n_79873.html

### Obama just shucks and jives

Andrew Cuomo, NY Attorney General, and Clinton fan... came out swingin at Obama after NH primary. “You can’t shuck and jive at a press conference,” he added. “All those moves you can make with the press don’t work when you’re in someone’s living room.” http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Dept_of_word_choice.html

### Hispanics won't vote for him

Clinton pollster Sergio Bendixen: “The Hispanic voter—and I want to say this very carefully—has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates.” http://thepage.time.com/2008/01/12/racial-tensions-a-potential-boost-for-clinton

[antiimperialist]

5. That's besides the point. The NYT headline says he is already giving her a hard time

Headline reads "Obama Giving Clinton a Race in Her Backyard", which is not backed by evidence.

You argue that he MIGHT give her a hard time if she's perceived as being divisive.

[Yael]

7. I am bookmarking this thread for this post. Thanks

[Yael]

6. "she’s earned the right to our support"

She has lived there for what, 7 years?

Whatever, Charlie.

[HeraldSquare212]

9. NY awards delegates by congressional district

so it's really a bunch of races occurring at th same time; statewide polls don't matter. Obama campaign has said they can win 40% of the delegates.