How did Hillary win NH? Got Out The Vote.

[Roland99]

How Clinton Won
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/how_clinton_won_1.html

Hillary Clinton won last night by putting together the voting coalition that has held Democratic frontrunners in good stead for 75 years. Take a look at these numbers - all of which come from CNN's cross-tabulated exit polls. What you'll see is that Hillary Clinton won many elements of the traditional FDR coalition.

...

This suggests the model for Clinton moving forward: win by appealing to the traditional Democratic electorate. If she must fight Obama state-by-state, she would do well to reformulate this "Mondale Model" again and again.* This bloc of voters is more sizeable in other states.

Of course, what we do not yet know is whether Obama will be able to win one of the most loyal and potent parts of the traditional Democratic coalition, black voters. My intuition is that black voters will be absolutely critical to the prospects of Obama and Clinton.

Some pundits will probably reference Saturday's debate or Clinton's near-crying moment as reasons she surged late. The exit polling does not back this up. Obama won voters who decided sometime between a month and three days ago. And the two split voters who decided today - 39% to Clinton, 36% to Obama. Clinton dominated among voters who said they decided earlier than a month ago, 48% to 31%.

Best analysis I've seen yet on this.

[Avalux]

1. 4,000 people to knock on doors and 500 drivers.

Takes a lot of cash to be able to do that. I think a lot of folks made up their mind last minute too.

[Roland99]

2. It's possible but I don't think it's probable.

[Roland99]

3. Kick for some real analysis of the voters (not about crying or race or gender)