If Obama is getting the independent vote how on earth will he be easy to beat?

[Quixote1818]

Someone explain that one to me. :shrug:

Seems he is the Republican's worst nightmare! He is going to bring the Blacks out in record numbers. He is going to bring the youth out in record numbers and he is going to pick up the independents. It sounds like Obama is the perfect storm this year. Bigots either don't vote or vote Republican anyway so I think that problem will be minor.

[TwilightZone]

1. If recent party affiliation numbers are accurate, and independents are leaning Democratic...

any of our candidates should win as the nominee in November, assuming there isn't some monumental shift in voter intent.

[bellasgrams]

30. I think there are Repbs and Indps. that will vote on Obama in

the primary because he is there only hope of possibly winning the general.

[TwilightGardener]

2. He's their worst nightmare.

[silverojo]

13. Second-worst nightmare

Edwards is THE worst nightmare, which is why the MSM is trying to ignore him out of existence. When it comes to big pharma or corporations or insurance companies, Edwards won't even take MONEY from them, so you know he won't take any SHIT off them. :D

[jlake]

3. Because the Republicans will attack him and tear him to shreds

Then the independents won't bee so keen on him.

[Occam Bandage]

5. It's a good thing that Hillary doesn't have any negatives.

Oh, wait.

[jlake]

7. They are known and quantifiable....and she will FIGHT back.

All Obama will do is whine and complain he is being attacked....which has worked against opponents in the primary, but certainly won't work with the GOP.

[Occam Bandage]

8. Judging by the fact that he managed to get Hillary's numbers to sink like rocks

whenever she tried to go on the offensive, I'm feeling pretty confident in his ability to outmaneuver negative campaigning.

[jlake]

10. There has been NO negative campaigning in this primary compared to

what the GOP will do with 24/7 MSM attacks on Obama.....everything Hillary has HINTED about will be
harped on repeatedly, Muslim, Madrasa, Cocaine, etc etc + plenty of new allegations.

[Occam Bandage]

14. Hm. So would you say that's because Hillary doesn't have the skill to take down a weak opponent,

or does she not have the courage to fight hard?

[jlake]

21. I'd say that it is because ALL of our candidates are decent enough

not to critically damage one another for the good of the party and the nation.

[Occam Bandage]

24. So how exactly is it in the nation's interest

not to take down a candidate who is dangerously ill-suited for the general election? If Barack Obama is as weak as you say he is, it is absolutely in her interest, the party's interest, and America's interest to air his weaknesses and let Dems decide if they want to go through with nominating him. But yet she doesn't. Why is that?

I can answer that. It's not "decency," because that has no place in presidential politics. It's because she knows that if she hits him on that, he'll be able to engineer a backlash that will destroy her.

[jlake]

32. I am pretty sure that Hillary will still pull this one out....without having

to resort to extreme tactics. Mutual destruction is not good for the party....just look at the last Primary for CA governor....we should
have beaten Arnold, but the candidates destroyed each other in the primary.

[Occam Bandage]

35. So she hasn't destroyed the incredibly weak Obama because she thinks

that Obama is not a credible threat, and that she'll still win it regardless of what he does? Judging by the polling in NH and SC, I'd have some doubts as to her judgement if I believed what you're saying.

[jlake]

44. I never said that Obama was incredibly weak - or weak at all 0 or that was

her strategy....not sure where you are getting this from...
I think that Hillary is in a very tough race that she did not expect. I do think she will win though.

[Occam Bandage]

46. Since you're saying the Republicans will be able to tear him to shreds, you did.

And she's in a tough race, you admit. So either:

1. She doesn't see that she's in a bind, and she has terrible judgement.
2. She isn't able to tear down Obama, and she's an awful campaigner.
3. She isn't willing to tear down Obama, in which case she has no business being let near a GE.
4. She has been trying to tear him down, and he's outmaneuvered her.

[jlake]

53. Well, thanks for the limited possiblities that it could be....

For the record, I am not a huge Hillary supporter. Since it is clear that it is between Hillary and Obama, I fully support her because I feel that an Obama nomination will be suicide for the party.

I think she was expecting to walk into being the nominee.
I think she is surprised at how the press has given only positive coverage to Obama and is building him up....it is really hard to work against the MSM
If they were fair, and informed people we would not be having this discussion because President Gore would be finishing his 2nd term.
I think that the first part and second part of your # possibilites are seperate.
You are counting your chicks before the eggs have hatched. We won't know if Obama has outmaneuvered her until one of them wins.

[Thrill]

69. The Republicans have been gearing up 10 yrs to run against Hilary

They want her with a Passion.

Romney said himself today. "I can't wait to go against Hilary"

[jlake]

71. Some people never learn........

[Quixote1818]

15. Well, they better be careful or they might end up in Don Imus's position

Those kind of attacks will totally come back and bight them in the ass. Not to mention FOX has already hit him with all that.

[jlake]

23. If you believe that. I think Imus was only taken down because he

of his disdain for some of Bush's policies.....I hear much worse from other RW yakkers from just clicking by their shows on a regular basis.
The MSM is building Obama up so they can tear him down.....and they will.

[Occam Bandage]

26. So Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson pushed the issue to defend Bush? Interesting theory.

And by 'interesting,' I mean 'fucking insane.'

[chascarrillo]

28. MSM. It's the "neocon" of 2006.

Yeah, it's a couple years out of date, but eh...

[jlake]

34. No, but they do all kinds of protesting....but does it get coverage.

Seriously think about this: If Obama truly represents organic, democratic change then why is the MSM giving him so much coverage. They could
black him out and crush his chances....it is all in what is covered and what is not.

[Occam Bandage]

39. So do you believe Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson are stupid pawns of "the MSM?" I think

after as long as they've been in politics, and with as many public-perception battles as they've fought, they're smarter than that.

[jlake]

45. No, I think that they did what the do on a regular basis. The reason

that it was a huge media event was because certain people did not like some of the other things Imus was saying.
ie if Rush Limbaugh had said the same thing it would have been a non-event.

[Occam Bandage]

50. So what, they're robots now? Do you really think

that Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson are not able to see what is going on around them? You really think they would willingly join in some right-wing conspiracy to take down a minor Bush critic because they were just "doing what they do?"

[jlake]

55. No, I do not think it was a "conspiracy"

and you are being daft if you do not understand my point.
Do you think that rush limbaugh would have lost his job if he said the same things - honestly?????

[Occam Bandage]

57. No, because he doesn't run on MSNBC. He runs on stations that only appeal

to right-wingers, and so pressure campaigns wouldn't work to get him off air.

[jlake]

60. Okay, fair enough....Glen Beck on CNN.

and btw he has already said MUCH worse things about homosexuals and he still has his job.

[chascarrillo]

42. Maybe the MSM wants change?

Do you have nightmares where the MSM leaps out of your closet? Geez.

[jlake]

48. Why would they want a progressive who might challenge their monopolies?

The media has always hated the Clintons -- and they would just as surely hate Obama if he were president.

[Occam Bandage]

52. Man, one day he's a conservative sellout and an MSM darling,

the next he's a progressive liberal who's going to get destroyed by the MSM. I sure wish Straw Barack Obama would have some consistency.

[jlake]

56. No, I think he is a conservative.....my question is why would they

want a progressive....hmmmm.......maybe the reason he is so vague on "hope" and "change" is because he does not really offer any.

[Occam Bandage]

59. So if he's a conservative offering no change, why would the MSM want to destroy him?

[jlake]

62. I could ask the same about how so many Obama supporters call Hillary

a Republican lite and then say the media will destroy her....

Because they are setting up a win/win Corporate Whore Obama or Corporate Whore Generic Republican.

[Occam Bandage]

64. They're being disingenuous. Hillary is a pretty good Democrat.

[jlake]

66. That is very fair of you to say.

[Quixote1818]

9. Obama has responded to every Clinton attack

He usually turns the attack around and turns it into a strength.

[jlake]

12. if you think he has been attacked, then you have no idea what our nominee

is in for in the GE.

[Occam Bandage]

16. If you think they'll attack him on islam/madrassas, you have no idea how they operate.

They don't attack us on our weaknesses so much as they attack us on our strengths. The swiftboaters aren't freepers; you don't give them nearly enough credit. They'll be taking his inspirational speaking style, and spinning that as fluff to cover inexperience and incompetence on policy. And he'll be ready for that; Clinton is already immunizing him.

[jlake]

25. Sort of. They will attack him on all of it.

Muslim Scare good for - 35% of vote.
Inexperience good for - 20%
He loses.

[Occam Bandage]

29. Ah, The Math. Here, let me adjust your figures.

Hope good for - 50% of vote.
Change good for - 50% of vote.
Blackness good for - 50% of vote.
Name useful in scrabble good for - 50% of vote

He wins so hard, they let him be President of Canada too.

:eyes:

[jlake]

38. Mock if you want, but I believe what I posted.

I am glad that you have faith he can pull it off....once the msm turns on him it will be an uphill battle.
I find it incredibly hard to believe that Independent voters will go with Obama.....but maybe he can get enough youth and new black voters....

[Occam Bandage]

41. "I find it incredibly hard to believe that Independent voters will go with Obama"

Why, you don't believe the polling that shows him with the highest independent appeal of any candidate of either party? You didn't see how he captured an overwhelming plurality of independent voters in Iowa, and is projected to do so again in New Hampshire?

[jlake]

49. You cannot poll what will happen in the GE.

[Occam Bandage]

51. LOL. Funny how polls are always "invalid" when they disprove your claims as to people's mindsets.

[jlake]

58. No, I do not play that partisan game.

I know what the polls show now. I am telling you what I feel in the GE.
Joe Biden, whom I originally supported polled very poorly because he had virtually no name recognition.
I feel that if he were our nominee he would have won by a landslide.....but I cannot show any polls that say this because none were even taken.

[Occam Bandage]

61. "but I cannot show any polls that say this because none were even taken."

Biden (40%) Giuliani (42%)
Biden (36%) McCain (49%)
Biden (39%) Romney (39%)
Biden (39%) Thompson (39%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[jlake]

65. More clearly: With Biden having the same name recognition

that clinton, obama and edwards had because of frontrunner status. .....and through the course of the GE as people get to know the candidates more.

[Quixote1818]

22. Sure they will be relentless but just think how the Blacks in America will react

to those kinds of attacks. They will go BALLISTIC! The Republicans will get their ass's handed to them on a silver platter. Obama will be very, very hard to attack. Just ask Don Imus after he made a racist remark.

[jlake]

27. "the blacks" do we all march in lockstep. WOW speaking of Don Imus....

[Occam Bandage]

33. You're right. There will be no uproar once

an African-American presidential candidate is attacked on the basis of his race. Not at all.

[jlake]

40. I never opined that he would be attacked On the basis of his race....not sure what you are speaking

about.

[Quixote1818]

43. Thats why the Republicans don't know what to do about Obama

He is really hard to attack because they don't want to risk sounding prejudice. :thumbsup: :hi:

[jlake]

74. No, this is how it will go down:

Some "radical" group will make an OUTRAGEOUS commercial against Obama.....air it ONCE and the RNC will feign objection and "denounce" it,
Then the MSM Will play it THOUSANDS of time FOR FREE in "condemnation".

[Quixote1818]

76. That might have worked 4 years ago but Obama is the result of all that

The people are onto all that bullshit. Not only will it not work but it will completely backfire on them and be a disaster for the Republicans!

Keep in mind that I am an Edwards supporter but I have zero doubt that Obama will be nearly impossible to beat this time around.

[jlake]

82. You overestimate the American people.

It should have NEVER worked. It is what they will do, and it WILL work again.
That is not to say that they will not "swiftboat" whomever our candidate is - they will - but to say that Obama is "unbeatable" is absolutely ridiculous and disconnected from KNOWN REALITY.

[Quixote1818]

37. It won't be just the blacks. I think most Americans will be disgusted by those kinds of attacks

It's those kind of attacks that are leading to Obama's rise. People are fed up with that crap. I got one of those Obama is a Muslim emails today and I was furious! I responded to EVERYONE who had been on that mailing list with the facts. Those kinds of attacks were absolutely Un-American!

[silverojo]

18. She can fight all she wants

When you're despised by Republicans AND Democrats, and the Independents are flocking to Obama, you're not going to be electable in the GE.

[Quixote1818]

47. That pretty much sums up her problems nt

[Mr_Monday]

72. I have to conceed

that HRC could probably take on the GOP whereas Obama might not be able to handle himself very well against the GOP slime machine. During the Clinton years she confronted all their lies and deceits about her head on and destroyed them. However, Obama would be facing a scattered GOP, an unified mass of bigots, warmongers, and generally confused individuals. However, if Hillary were the opponent, those scattered groups would resume their previous glory. For we all know one thing about every conservative: They ALL hate Hillary (even if they liked Bill.) No exceptions.

[David Dunham]

6. Independents and Reps will vote for McCain over Obama

[Capn Sunshine]

31. how nice for the Republicans that you fear them so

since they have no negatives to worry about

Our campaign can take shit bombs from Hilary's camp, what make s youthink that's worse than the republicans?

Have you noticed the general predictions run to anywhere from1.25 : to 2:1 turnout (Dems vs Rs)?

They are lost, period.

[Big Blue Marble]

36. I think this time their attacks will fail.

Remember generals tend to fight the last war. This is a new day.

The independents are signaling that they are tired of the old tear them apart limb by limb destructive politics.
They, more than any group, are signaling with their Obama support that they want a new approach.
Obama is going to be the next President of These United States and the Swift Boat types can sink to the
bottom.

[FrenchieCat]

4. They can't.........

But he should be arrested for Hopemongering. I heard that Democrats aren't into that type of things these days. To Unrealistic and scary! something to do with "Cults" and things! :scared:

[billbuckhead]

17. Belief is the enemy of truth

Obama makes big promises with no history of delivering anything. Come on, this is the guy so tough that he votes "present" when under stress.

[TwilightGardener]

19. People might get high expectations and lose some cynicism, and

that's just dangerous.

[chascarrillo]

11. It's obvious, isn't it? nt

[still_one]

20. You can count on the republicans to pull out the Southern Strategy

only problem is that the South is not the same today as it was then

[jab105]

54. He will be impossible to beat!

He is a change like none other since the 1960s...a change from the status quo...these are historic times...I wish him safety and health...that's the only thing that really worries me right n ow...

[AtomicKitten]

63. I K&R this post.

:yourock:

[Carrieyazel]

68. You're really going off the deep end. He is not a change like the 60's; not even close.

He has shown no propensity to change the status quo, and he won't be able to.
It will be impossible for him to win. Not in this country, not in 2008.

[AshevilleGuy]

77. Oh God, the repuke smear machine could spend a month

on his middle name alone. This is nuts.

[chascarrillo]

79. Speaking of smears... nice one.

Sigh.

[AshevilleGuy]

85. You think they won't do this?

That is mild compared to what they are capable of. Look what they did to Kerry. Remember the monstrous ad they leveled at Harold Ford?? Obama's middle name is what it is; they will twist it in ways we can't even imagine, and pretending it won't happen doesn't help.

[Carrieyazel]

67. Be careful, folks. Getting the independent vote in a general election

and getting Democratic-leaning Independents in a primary, ARE TWO SEPERATE AND DISTINCT THINGS!!!!

What are we saying here!!!! He is not the Republicans worst nightmare. A little-tested Senator with no executive experience. That's really their nightmare. Please.

And bringing the youth out in record numbers, does not ensure anything!!! Older votes could come out in record numbers, just to stop him.

[Thrill]

70. He'll be tough to beat

Especially with the field the Republicans are running

[PretzelWarrior]

73. He's also attracting GOP. that should scare them.

African Americans turned out, Latinos turned out, Women supporting him, young people supporting him, independents supporting him.....it could be a wonderful day in America come November 2008.

[AshevilleGuy]

75. Think about that. Why would repukes vote for him?

So he will be our nominee?? Does that not ring a bell?

[Quixote1818]

80. Maybe for the same reason Democrats voted for Reagan?

Keep in mind that I support Edwards not Obama. I know a winning candidate when I see one though. Edwards and Obama would be tough to beat.

[AshevilleGuy]

84. I do not see a parallel there.

Dems voted for Ronnie because they were too conservative for Carter or Mondale. That would imply that repukians are too liberal for Giuliani or McCain so they vote Obama, in the primaries. Doesn't make sense. They vote for him so he will be our nominee - the easiest to beat.

Having watched elections since 1960 I know winners and losers as well. We have one of each here.

[Chasing Dreams]

86. Edwards OR Obama

Either one would be tough to be beat. Together, they would be unstoppable.

I too know a winning candidate when I see one. Obama is the best I have ever seen on the Democratic side, and Edwards is second.

There is no way Hillary can over come two decades of MSM/Repuke attacks. And that's too bad. She probably would have made a great President.

[Cha]

78. And he's going to bring out some

of those Deaniacs too.

[Critters2]

81. I worked on Dean's campaign.

All the Deaniacs I know are for Edwards. He's the obvious place for Deaniacs to go.

[Cha]

83. I'm a Deaniac.

I know others on this board who are supporting Obama..and we like Edwards, too.

[ellisonz]

87. I'm a Deaniac for Obama too.