Huckabee vs. Obama: Who Wins?

[NYCGirl]

Interesting comparison by SurveyUSA via Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/04/huckabee-vs-obama-who_n_79824.html

Now that Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama have won the Iowa Caucus, here's a look at where those two candidates stood when SurveyUSA faced them off in hypothetical head-to-head matchups in research conducted prior to the Caucus:



"Results range from a 32 point lead for Obama in Massachusetts to a 15 point lead for Huckabee in Alabama. Full results, crosstabs, and tracking graphs are all linked on the SurveyUSA Election Tracking page."

[Arugula Latte]

1. I'd say Obama by a landslide.

He has strong appeal across the board. Only the fundie freaknuts like Huck (granted, there are a lot of those in the ol' USA, but not enough to put Backwards Boy over the top).

[HeraldSquare212]

Agreed.

Evangelicals can take over a relatively poorly-attended caucus, but they don't have the numbers to do much more than that.

[BringBigDogBack]

6. also agree

[skipos]

12. Obama would win, but not in a landslide.

Huckabee would clean up the pro-rapist, anti-science, Jesus-rode-a-dinosaur voters,
Obama would get everyone else.

[Arugula Latte]

13. I guess I was thinking landslide in terms of the electoral college.

I think Obama v. Huck would flip a few red-purple states to "blue enough" to give the electoral votes. Huck would win in states like Utah and Alabama, but the Deep South + plus the Few Scary Western Red States wouldn't be enough for him.

[surfermaw]

21. I say the one that could carry the southern states

[yardwork]

27. Nobody has ever won with just the southern states.

Without Ohio, California, New York, Michigan, and other major northern and western states, Huckabee can take the south, but he won't win either electoral or popular vote.

[goldcanyonaz]

2. If the looney tune Evangelicals turn out Huck just might win.

It would be one step closer to Rapture for them having the Huckster in the White House.

[Quixote1818]

4. But it looks like a lot of new people might turn out for Obama

not to mention Blacks may come out in larger numbers than we have seen.

[Capn Sunshine]

34. Cart before the horse

Huck has ZERO presence in New Hampshire

[antiimperialist]

3. Enter Bloomberg

These numbers are less relevant if we throw Bloomberg into the mix. I have no idea how he will affect things, but it will affect them.

[HeraldSquare212]

11. He will have little impact, I think

No one is pining for him to enter the race, the way they were for Perot, for example. He'd have to buy the services of all sorts of self-interested semi-shady people, just like he did by making a deal with the Independent party (Lenora Fulani) in New York. They won't care if he wins - they'll just want to get paid.

All he's got is money, which has an impact but he'd have a relatively short period to introduce himself. So far, he hasn't made many policy statements, and I can't imagine being against trans fat and smoking is enough of a platform to get elected to the White House.

[Double T]

5. Neither. BOTH campaigners will NOT be the candidate for their parties.

[ingac70]

7. Alabama is gonna vote Fundie regardless...

Iowa and Virginia preferring Obama? That's promising...

[formerrepuke]

8. Ohio just barely squeaks by; we're overrun with ass-hats here...

[ingac70]

17. Ohio is bizarre...

I know a couple of folks from there that aspire to be Deep South rednecks.

[crawfish]

9. An interesting contrast in styles

Obama is inspirational, Kennedy-like; Huckabee is more homespun and Clintonesque, with a good sense of humor. Obama appears more presidential, but less approachable; Huckabee more personal but at times undignified. Neither is big on substance. Obama keeps Huckabee from owning the religious vote; however, Huckabee is distanced enough to stay relatively immune from the anti-war sentiment.

If they are the candidates, it should be an interesting campaign, to say the least.

[quinnox]

10. This is the nightmare scenario, Huckabee would win easily

Lets hope this scenario doesn't happen.

[Arugula Latte]

14. Hah!

Hillary v. Any Republican is the nightmare for most of us. People on both the right and left despise Hillary (for different reasons).

[lapfog_1]

22. You've got to be kidding... right?

I'm not even for Obama... but to say the Huckster would clean the floor with him?

[quinnox]

24. I wish I was

Don't underestimate Huckabee, he is a formidable opponent IMHO. He has crossover appeal to Democrats and could win tradtional Dem states. The Dems have to put up a real warrior to beat him, Obama isn't it.

[lapfog_1]

25. Your allegiance to your candidate has affected your ability to reason.

I only HOPE that Huckabee is the Repuke candidate.

Any of our candidates could beat him and it won't even be close.

[surfermaw]

23. not to mention McCain may win the Republican Nom..that is what I am seeing

And the south loves him....

[yardwork]

30. Not in my part of the south, they don't. McCain is hated by the extreme right.

McCain is against torture and in favor of conservation and alternative energy. The extreme right think he's a traitor - literally.

[Dawgs]

31. "Nightmare scenario"

He would bring out ALL Democrats plus youth and African-Americans(two groups that usually don't vote). Oh yeah, he would also get most of the Indys. And, maybe some Republicans.

I think he'll do fine.

[Desertrose]

15. Depends who buys the most votes....

You realize honest elections are a thing of the past, right?

Big money will buy the most corporate friendly candidate.


edited to change honest instead of real

[mrreowwr_kittty]

16. Obama kicks ass. nt

[demnan]

18. I like the Virginia figure

Looks like our once red state could go blue.

[MrSlayer]

19. I shudder at the thought of a President Huckabee.

But unfortunately that's what I see happening should this scenario play out.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Plus 1 in Ohio?

good god can we find someone better?

[TheWraith]

26. Obama in a walk. I'd say 60 to 40, nationally.

Huckabee comes off as an okay guy (until you get to know him) but he has a tendancy to make self-destructive gaffes (like the "God is lifting my poll numbers" statement and crossing the picket line), and he gets simply pasted to the walls by Obama in oratory.

Obama wins. Which is good, since Huckabee is the only one who was ever dangerous to us.

[Strawman]

28. Huckabee would take the Deep South, and a few others

He would be massively outspent by Obama, and Obama would turnout young people and have liberal coattails. I'd be more worried about Obama versus a more mainstream Republican that would raise more money and give some of his independent and Republican cross-over supporters second thoughts.

My gut feeling is that Obama would win somewhat comfortably, but not by a landslide. Huckabee's people would turnout, but so would Obama supporters and there are more of Obama supporters and potential supporters that could be registered. I don't think Huckabee would get much of a bump between the primary and the general and many Republicans who supported other candidates would defect to Obama.

[yardwork]

29. One key factor is the fact that the Republican corporatists won't support Huckleberry.

They won't rig the machines for him. They won't heave millions of hidden dollars at him. If huckleberry gers the nomination, the Republican Establishment will Freak. Out.

Republicans can't win without cheating. They haven't won a presidential election without cheating since 1988. 1988. That is twenty years ago - and the party is hated more now than ever.

[rAVES]

32. Speaking as a rational human I'd say Obama, but as a Hillbot, Huckabee.

[sniffa]

38. ..

:rofl:

:thumbsup:

[NastyRiffraff]

33. Obama, not by a landslide

But by a decent percentage. And I say this as an Edwards supporter. (I think Edwards would win by a larger margin)

[Vinca]

35. Obama by a wide margin. A good chunk of the Republicans

think Huck is nuts and might crossover for Obama.

[TwilightGardener]

36. Yep--he's not exactly a popular choice for the REST of his party (the non-religious nuts).

[bullwinkle428]

37. Obama, as long as he doesn't try to out-Jesus Huckabee

It's like the old expression about the choice between a genuine fill-in-the-blank and someone who just wears it as a veneer - people will always go with the genuine version!

[JI7]

39. Obama wins easily once people get to know more about Huckabee

New Mexico and Missouri will go Obama also. and he will win Ohio by over 5 points.

[Hawaii Hiker]

40. Only by 18% in NY, that's actually much closer than I thought,

I would think ANY Democrat will trounce the Re-thug in NY, by an even larger margin than that....

[featherman]

41. Huckabee would be a weak candidate in the GE

versus Obama. Doubtful nominee in the first place since Huckabee does not have the support of "traditional" (old money) GOPer's or of Wall Street or of the neo-con theorists so it is highly unlikely he can carry to the nomination. We can only hope.

However, as an exercise, anyone who is familiar with the Electoral College maps of the past 4 cycles knows that the GOP has been reduced to being the party of the "Confederate States" plus the "Prairie" (NE, OK, SD, ND) plus IN, UT, ID, AK and WY. That's their core support and leaves them far short of an electoral college majority at about 163 EVs

The Dems are solid in New England, Mid Atlantic (NY, PA, MD, NJ, DE), the Upper Midwest (IL, MI, MN, WI, IA) and the West Coast (CA, OR, WA, HI) which provides a greater number of "core" electoral votes, nearly a majority at 259 EVs

The battlegrounds are (as usual): VA, WV, OH, FL, MO, KY, CO, NM, AZ, and NV

Bush took all 10 in 2004 (and nabbed IA) and all but NM in 2000... and barely squeaked through. Every GOPer must pretty much run the table in all the battleground state (as Bush did) to win. Any Dem who can add EITHER OH or FL or a even couple smaller states to the Dem core, wins. It's pretty simple, really.

The battle, as usual, will be which of candidate plays better in the battleground states.

VA, WV, MO, and KY would be the battlegrounds with highest proportion of "evangelicals" which tend to support the GOP by about 75-25 but are generally only 30% of the electorate.