Iowa predictions from "unaffiliated political operatives": Consensus is Obama

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Iowa Caucuses -- Prediction Time!

....The Fix sampled a selection of unaffiliated political operatives to gather their predictions about the first-, second- and third-place finishers for both Democrats and Republicans. The experts were also asked to predict what THE storyline coming out of Iowa will be.

Most were brave enough to put their names to their predictions. Some were not. (Boo!). A sampling of their answers is provided below. The consensus was that Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucuses and Mitt Romney will emerge on the Republican side. The storyline of choice among these political pros is a stronger-than-expected third-place finish by John McCain that propels him to a win in New Hampshire's GOP primary next Tuesday....

* Marc Elias, Democratic strategist, Perkins Coie

Democrats
Obama: 33%
Clinton: 27
Edwards: 20...

Storyline: "Both parties have new frontrunners with the big 'mo' going into New Hampshire."...

* Jeff Liszt, Democratic pollster, Anzalone Liszt

Democrats
Obama: 40%
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 30...

Storyline: "The story on the Democratic side is that Obama's late momentum is making New Hampshire look like the Maginot Line for Clinton."

* Will Robinson, Democratic media consultant, The New Media Firm

Democrats
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 31
Edwards: 29...

Storyline: "GOP headline could be a Romney comeback against Huckabee and that Clinton narrowly survives a run at her -- the Democratic race is now a two-person race even though Edwards was a close third -- but does Obama get a Gary Hart surge in New Hampshire."...

* Mark Nevins, Democratic strategist

Democrats
Obama: 34
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 29...

Storyline: "Edwards will be ahead of Clinton all night and only at the very end (like Friday morning) will she wind up in second. It will be treated like a third place finish though."...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/01/prediction_time.html

[aquart]

1. That''ll be from the independents and Republicans?

Who aren't allowed to vote in Dem primaries in most places?

[frazzled]

7. I don't think that's correct

Independents may vote in either primary in New Hampshire, for example (as in quite a few other states). And in almost any state, if a Republican or Independent wanted to vote in a Democratic primary, all they have to is change registration (the date by which this must be done would vary from state to state). So no primary is really "closed," for all practical purposes.

In a year in which both parties are having competitive primaries (that is, no incumbent is running) ... I should think there aren't many "true" Republicans who would want to skip chosing from their own contested field of candidates in order to go play games with the Democrats. It's only "fed up" Republicans, who are thinking about leaving their pary anyway, who would pass up that chance inn order to move over to the Democratic contest.

As for Independents, the 2006 elections showed us they are breaking largely Democratic these days. They will vote for a Democrat in the general elections as well.

I assume you don't want these people's votes next November?

[Capn Sunshine]

15. grasp grasp grasp

are your hands sore from the straws you're clutching so tightly?

[loveangelc]

2. I'm praying this is true!

[geiger]

3. The Clinton camp sure is quiet today.....

...the silence is deafening.

[Capn Sunshine]

16. except the usual horses asses on DU

they will NEVER shut up. Even if Hillary comes in fifth.

[rucky]

4. Do these people get paid?

If so, who do they work for?

[fightindonkey]

5. I Expect Obama To Be #1 Then In Iowa

[surfermaw]

6. Remember what happened in the 2000 When Edwards was suupposed to get 2%

As it turned out Kerry beat Edwards by 2% because Clark the half republican jumped in the Iowa race to stop him for someone...

[HeraldSquare212]

8. Thank god someone remembers where Clark came from

You'd think he was someone in his own right the way people tout his support for Clinton.

[rinsd]

9. LOL, so one should forget Edwards was a New Democrat but remeber Clark was a republican?

[HeraldSquare212]

10. I wasn't speaking to his party affiliation nt

[Adelante]

12. Clark didn't run in Iowa

You're on a roll today.

[onehandle]

13. Clark was never a Registered Republican.

He voted for Republicans early on, but voted for Democrats after Reagan, then Registered as a Democrat.

Clark says he voted for Republican Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan out of concern for national security during the Vietnam and Cold War years. But he says later he found Republicans to be “shrill” and “isolationist.”

[Renew Deal]

14. No I don't remember

Because I don't know what the hell you are talking about.

[karynnj]

17. Have you read anything on Iowa?

The Des Moines register poll showed it as Kerry/Edwards/Dean in the correct order. Kerry got 38% to Edwards 32%. Clark did not campaign or run in Iowa.

[Adelante]

11. I want them to stop saying these things

It's scaring me, mom :scared: