Is It True 55% of the Voters in 2004 were First-Timers?

[Bullet1987]

On Hardball they had one of the women on who said the entrance polling in 2004 showed that nearly 55% of the voters said it was their first caucus. If that is true, then why are people getting so bent out of shape about the DMR poll predicting a 60% turnout of first-time caucus goers?

[Tess99]

1. Because it's not their candidate who's leading. That's why.

[TeamJordan23]

2. Yes, that is what was reported. nm

[Tess99]

3. Hey, who cares if that's what was reported!!

Don't you know the DMR poll is rigged in favor of Obama!!! I mean, so they didn't endorse him, true, but they've rigged their poll to try to kill Edwards and Clinton!!! Screw that unreliable crooked DMR poll!!!!!!!!

[Colobo]

4. You need to relax.

[Pirate Smile]

5. I heard the DMR pollster say that on MSNBC this morning also.

[politicasista]

6. Good luck tomorrow

:hi:

[Pirate Smile]

8. Thanks. I'm excited!

:bounce:

[Adelante]

7. 45% in 2004 were first time caucus goers

According to Ann Selzer, pollster for the Des Moines Register:

Today’s Iowa poll is out. You’re assuming that 60 percent of the voters in the Democratic caucuses will be first-time caucus attendees. How did you assume that? Why did you assume it?

ANN SELZER, Des Moines Register: Well, actually, I assumed nothing. That’s what my data told me.

We put our method in place, and we let the voters speak to us. And we found that 60 percent of the people who told us they were definitely or probably going to the caucus indicated that it would be their first time at caucus.

It’s not all that much bigger than 2004. It was 45 percent then. But this stands to be a historic caucus, in terms of turnout.

If you haven't read the interview, Selzer explains that applying the 2004 terms to today, Obama still came in first in the poll.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec07/precaucus_1-1.html

[Adelante]

10. Ooop, I see, entrance polling

Above refers to the 2004 DM poll. :dunce:

[rinsd]

11. CNN had it at 45% in their entrance poll but the OP seems to be quoting ABC News which had it at 55%

:hi:

[rinsd]

9. CNN's entrance poll from 2004 has 45% 1st time caucusers

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/IA/

ABC News had it at 55%.

[Adelante]

12. Welcome back

And Happy New Year :hi:

[rinsd]

13. Thanks!

Happy new year to you as well.

And good luck tomorrow!

[Bullet1987]

14. Even if it was 45%...

DU members like Herman Munster are blowing up over the DMR poll as if it were only 20% or something. I don't get it.

[mac2]

15. First time caucus voters

may have turned out in great numbers because of the Iraq war. They may have been the young and concerned over their future. Many also laid off workers from "out sourcing" and the old concerned about their Social Security check and health care. That just about covers everyone doesn't it?