Will Obama win by not being a Democrat? Will the caucus results be a farce?

[Karmadillo]

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011627.php

Tuesday :: Jan 1, 2008
Will Obama win by not being a Democrat?

by Turkana
Marc Ambinder, of The Atlantic, got an email from the Clinton campaign:

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

As reported in my previous David Yepsen post, the Register assumes much higher participation in the Democratic caucuses by people who are not Democrats.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.
Which tells us a few important things:

1) If the Register is wrong about turnout, Hillary leads their poll.

2) If they are right about turnout, my previous post remains true- the result of the caucus will be a farce.

3) If they are right about turnout, and Obama wins, it will underscore that he is moving the Party in the wrong direction- away from the base, away from unions, away from core Democratic values!

more...

[Renew Deal]

1. The scent of desperation is wafting throughout DU.

The Hillary people reek. I have a feeling there will be a full explosion tomorrow.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

3. C'mon. What do you expect?

Look at their candidate.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Well looking at Obama

gives many of us pause.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. I'm sure he does.

I'm sure he does.

[annie1]

7. what does that have to do with hil? it's straight from the 'left coaster'...

but really i don't know, it's just a question. all the hrc camp pointed out was the sentence about that stats, they didn't write all that other stuff, that was from the left coaster. and they have to do that so their people still show up.

[annie1]

13. oh, maybe the title.

[KennedyGuy]

18. what reeks is your desperation

can't defend..gotta attack...

[Renew Deal]

20. First, I have nothing to defend.

I am not an Obama supporter. Second, If it helps the Democratic party grow, then great.

[rodeodance]

19. HA---if this were HC doing this--this board would expload!!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

21. that stink makes it to Chicago

too. nasty smell.

[Bitwit1234]

22. I don't think it makes any difference who wins.

the winner of Iowa most times doesn't win the nomination. And Obama is not going to win the nomination.

I find it disgusting that he is such an asshole that he is now smearing Al Gore, John Kerry and of all people Ted Kennedy. Saying Ted Kennedy is too old. Who in the damn hell has helped the black people in this country any more than Ted Kennedy. Who has fought for Civil Rights since he joined the Senate. Does Obama think he is too much of a big shot to NOT need the Democrats who are the backbone of the party. I think he is sadly mistaken that it is getting him any place by paying this hand. The so called young voters don't usually show up to vote. Maybe because Oprah bussed all those students in from Illinois to register and vote for Obama he might take Iowa. But that's gonna be it...California...who in their right mind thinks he would even be number 7. New York, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, hell he won't ever make a dent and his supporters are stupid enough to believe that people in these states are going to forget what REAL DEMOCRATS HAVE DONE FOR THEM. And the more he smears real democrats the harder it is going to be for him to even make a dent anywhere.

[NYCGirl]

2. Why do you hate Independents? NT

[bunnies]

4. The caucus will be a farce?!

Will the NH primary be a farce too? This is getting ridiculous.

[Renew Deal]

5. Only if Hillary loses.

I should bookmark this post. :evilgrin:

[bunnies]

11. No kidding!

If Hillary wins its a proud day for the Democratic party... if she loses, the process is a joke. Maybe she feels that independent voters just shouldnt be allowed to vote. Go democracy! :banghead:

[Sulawesi]

6. If Obama wins because he makes people register with the Democratic Party,

then I will celebrate that. You want fewer in the party, or just your type of Democrat?

[annie1]

14. that would be hot. if people register dem just so they can caucus for him.

[iconoclastic cat]

9. Oh, for the love of crap. nt

[sandnsea]

10. CNN: Clinton 33, Obama 31 DEMOCRATS

Other polls have Obama doing very well with just Democrats. This is just political jibber jabber.

[MethuenProgressive]

15. "participation in the Democratic caucuses by people who are not Democrats."

And college students who "are not from Iowa".
Obama knows if he just counted on Democrats from Iowa, he'd lose. And lose bad.

[Sulawesi]

16. We'll see

[xchrom]

17. recommend.