I'm an Obama supporter, but I'm going to be frank will you all.

[calteacherguy]

From all the data I see, and the way the caucuses are set up if I had to bet money right now on who would win Iowa I'd bet on Edwards.

1. He has the most committed supporters (less likely to change their mind) in every poll I've seen
2. I think folks getting tired of the Obama/Clinton sparring are likely to go to him
3. I think he probably has the best organization, he's been building it since 2004

New Hampshire (where it's all about the independent vote) and everything after my money is on Obama.

Call it the "comeback kid" scenario. ;-)

[1corona4u]

1. Well, I think a lot of us have been saying that for a long time...

at least I know I have. Not that it makes me happy....

[calteacherguy]

7. Well, I can think of things that would make me more unhappy. nt

[Snotcicles]

11. As messed up as things are in this country, he just may turn out to be another FDR.

And man do we need one.

[sandnsea]

2. Oh yeah, Edwards is pouring it on in Iowa

I noticed in that 2nd place poll that half of Hillary's and Obama's supporters had Edwards as their #2. If that's true for the rest of the candidates, and I don't see any reason it wouldn't be, then he is set to do quite well. The rest will all be turn-out.

[calteacherguy]

4. The point you make about the #2 support is just as important as the other reasons. nt

[IndianaJones]

3. thats really going out on a limb. nt.

[Catherine Vincent]

5. If he does win Iowa, I guess you'll be switching to Edwards?

(snicker) :)

[calteacherguy]

6. I have reasons for supporting Obama that I feel are very important.

And I'm going to do whatever I can to help him win. I don't have time to go into it all now, so I'll just say I think what he brings to the table is what America and the world most need right now.

Regardless, it's going to be a fun race to watch.

[niceypoo]

8. Agreed

First rational post Ive seen in a while with an Obama Bumpersticker at the bottom

[TeamJordan23]

9. If it is Edwards, Obama, Clinton in Iowa, I think Obama will still win NH

[JI7]

12. what if it's Edwards Clinton Obama ?

[Joe the Revelator]

13. I see no chance of that happing given the 2nd choice votes

its going to go:

Edwards
Obama
Biden
Clinton
Richardson

[Snotcicles]

10. Edwards is coming on strong in NH also, it's not as flashy or as loud

when you have limited funds and have to work the ground but it builds momentum.

[Mass]

14. Nothing surprising - Edwards has been living in NH for 3 years now.

But I am not sure it will translate well in other states. The only reason it played well for Kerry was because a lot of people in NH were supporting Kerry, but not thinking he could win and had switched to Clark. Most of the Clark support went back to Kerry when he showed he was able to win.

Historically, the winner of Iowa has not been winning NH that often. Previous one who was not the sitting president was Carter.

[ClarkUSA]

15. Obama is leading InTrade for Iowa & is the only one trending up according to the RCP Iowa poll graph

Link to "Intrade Market Prices for Iowa Democratic Caucus" and "Real Time Politics Poll Averages for the Iowa Democratic Caucus":
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

Just sayin'. ;-)

[elizm]

16. I think Edwards is indeed very popular in Iowa and has a good chance of winning...

But I think Iowans also have to/need to be considering whether Edwards can go the distance against Hillary in the long run. If they are comfortable with Hillary as the nominee then they will vote for Edwards in Iowa. If they are not comfortable with Hillary as the nominee, then they would have to make some serious considerations. Just my two cents.

[Andy823]

25. Hmmmm

Why not just come out and say if you vote for Edwards you are helping Clinton? I mean that's what most Obama supporters have said!

Now my view is that is load of BS if I ever heard one! Edwards has a "better" chance of winning the general election than either Clinton "or" Obama. So what I would suggest is that everyone take "that" inot serious consideration when voting. Do we want a "winner" or do we want "four" more years of republicans running things in the Whitehouse?

See two can play that that game! :evilgrin:

[Dems Will Win]

17. Obama will win, because people will come out of the woodwork for him

and many of them are not included in any polling, nor do the youth who are for him have landlines. Plus his organization on the ground equals or exceeds Edwards. It will be close because of second choices.

THis means Hillary comes in third!

[Evergreen Emerald]

18. I have said all along: Biden, Edwards, Clinton.

[Didereaux]

21. yeppers, that works for me as well

[Sulawesi]

19. I support Obama...

...and have concerns about Iowa. If he comes in 2nd to Edwards, he is fine. 2nd to Clinton and he is badly damaged. 3rd and he could be toast.

...if Obama wins Iowa barely over Clinton, then we have a horse race, if he wins Iowa over Edwards then HRC is in real trouble.

...I guess my point is that I am nervous because I think Obama has a real shot at the nomination, but has a lot to lose in Iowa. Edwards has more to lose if he does badly in Iowa, but I don't see him staying with HRC if Obama drops regardless, so I think he has less to gain.

[MaineDem]

20. Whomever finishes third will be in a tough place

And it could be any of them at this point.

I'm thinking Edwards will win Iowa. From there, it's anyone's guess. Especially with Nevada and SC yet to come before Super Tuesday.

[Didereaux]

22. UNLESS it's Biden...That would make headlines all over GO JOE!

[earthlover]

24. It all depends on how the media spins the outcome....

If the race finishes up with all three within a point of each other, all bunched up....this would not be a clear victory for anyone! Neither would a third place finish be devestating if it was just a point or two below the rest. Unless, of course, the media spins it that way! However the media spins the results will determine the surge coming from Iowa. If, on the other hand, one of them falls significantly behind the others, it will be hard for that candidate.

[earthlover]

23. I think any of the top three can win iowa....

I think a lot of minds are going to be made up during the last few days or even hours. I predict a high turnout, that should favor Obama and Clinton. I think Obama is going to do a little better than the last week's polling indicates. Edwards definately has a lot of advantages in iowa, organization wise. If the voters wake up and want to stay with the familiar face, they may go with Hillary. Biden could surprise us all. This is an exciting race because it is close now, and few people really have much confidence in the reliability of late polls between the holidays....so we just are going to have to wait! It will indeed be interesting to see how Iowa caucuses, and also to see what impact the 2nd choices have.

[MindMatter]

26. A key factor in 2008 is the recession

I was an early supporter of Obama. Gave him several contributions. I will have no trouble supporting him enthusiastically if he wins the nomination. However, I am a bit troubled by the vagueness of his campaign. That is to be expected in the early days. But as we get closer to crunch time, you expect candidates to be a lot more specific. Instead, Obama and Hillary have both opted for platitudes and the vaguest possible messages.

That may work for them in the primaries, because despite the self image of the Iowa and NH participants in the process, most of them are woefully ignorant of the big picture. Judging from the "man on the street" interviews, they are no more knowledgeable about current affairs or candidate positions than anybody else.

Looking ahead, there is a very good possibility that 2008 brings us a full-fledged recession. It seems to me that Edwards' populist message is the one that stands to benefit the most from voters with economic distress. So far, Edwards has been talking mostly about the ills caused by a system that turns control over to the insurance industry, big Pharma and big oil. It is a very small step for him to add Big Money into this message. The way our banks have been misbehaving, particularly on the mortgage issue, sets this up as a powerful issue for 2008

[pstans]

27. An Iowan and Obama supporter here that agrees

Edwards has the momentum, committed veteran caucus goers, and organization to get his people out. Edwards' stump is very passionate and will resonate with voters.

I am for Obama, but it was a tough choice over Edwards.

[Bluebear]

28. Will we all what? :)

[AtomicKitten]

29. Obama-6, Hillary-5, Edwards-1.

That's how the 12-person panel on the Chris Matthews' show today voted when asked to predict the outcome in Iowa. FWIW.

[calteacherguy]

30. Well...

Guess I'm wrong or they're wrong.

Hope their majority is right. ;-)