Clinton regains Democratic lead

[Alamom]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d8e1d3ec-b424-11dc-a6df-0000779fd2ac.html

Clinton regains Democratic lead
By Andrew Ward in Washington

Published: December 27 2007

US presidential hopefuls returned to the campaign trail on Wednesday after a pause for Christmas with the latest opinion poll showing Hillary Clinton regaining the lead among Democrats in Iowa a week before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Earlier polls had the New York senator locked in a dead heat with Barack Obama in Iowa, with John Edwards close behind.

But an American Research Group survey released on Christmas eve showed the former first lady leading Mr Obama, the senator for ­Illinois, by 15 percentage points, up from four points in the same poll a week earlier.

The survey offered reassurance to Mrs Clinton after a tough few weeks during which her campaign appeared to lose momentum while Mr Obama surged back into contention.

After months spent trumpeting her strength and experience, Mrs Clinton has spent recent days campaigning alongside her mother and daughter across Iowa in a belated attempt to soften her harsh public image.

But the main narrative to the Democratic race remains the perceived choice between Mrs Clinton’s greater experience and Mr Obama’s promise of change.

[saltpoint]

1. Could be she wins in Iowa. She could also place 4th.

The caucuses are a week away. I personally think a lot is going to change in the coming 6 or 7 days.

On both sides.

Polls are snapshots. Some catch the likeness, others less so, and they are time-specific. Presidents Gephardt and Dean could tell us a few things about polling.

If Sen. Clinton wins Iowa by a bunch, she's in the catbird seat but if her momentum after Feb. 5th appears likely to result in certain nomination, IMO that will make Bloomberg a more likely third party candidate.

If Sen. Clinton loses in Iowa narrowly, her momentum is slowed but likely not halted, and the outcome is less certain.

If Sen. Clinton loses big in Iowa, she will not be the nominee.

Just my take.

[Perry Logan]

2. I-N-E-V-I-T-A-B-L-E.

[earthlover]

4. Gee, I thought the Hillary Gaggle said they never used the word inevitable!

Except when they do I guess

[Perry Logan]

6. Just spelling it out for you.

[demnan]

3. The polls right now are just crazy

Even the pollsters on CNN said you couldn't believe them. We'll just wait and see. It's going to be an interesting new year, to say the least.

[William769]

5. K&R!

[Adelante]

7. Maybe she has, we'll see

But we can't really know that based on the ARG poll mentioned in the article.

Pollster explains:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_on_the_dark_side_of_th.php

[SoxFan]

8. Crooked Republican pollster

Dollars to donuts that the Clinton campaign slid ARG some off the books money. That's what Republican congressman Charlie Bass (NH-02) did last year. He's now former congressman Charlie Bass.

By the way, Bass was defeated by Obama's national co-chair, US Rep. Paul Hodes. I'm sure Dick Bennett and ARG have no axe to grind, right?

[DavidDvorkin]

9. One poll, 5000 DU posts about it

It would be wise to wait for other polls, to see if this one is an outlier.