Clinton has huge lead over Obama in NJ (New Quinnipiac poll)

[antiimperialist]

Oprahbama is not being felt in NJ, and I don't see how even if Obama wins NH and Iowa, NJ could change their opinion so drastically.
Quinnipiac finds that Clinton now has a 51% to 17% lead over Obama:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1128

I think Clinton is gonna win this thing. I can't name one state with a lot of delegates where Clinton trails Obama.

[ccpup]

1. people don't realize that this race

isn't won with just one or two States. Even if Clinton were to drop Iowa and NH, winning SC, NY, NJ, CA -- she has strong leads in all -- would still make her a viable candidate. And I don't know that those States would see the Obama wins in Iowa or elsewhere and suddenly think 'oh, gee, we better get on the bandwagon and change our minds!'

Also, should Obama win Iowa and NH, the media spotlight will become brighter on him and -- as most media games are played -- his mistakes, misstatements and past history will get more attention than they are now and that could effect his "appeal".

All the while, Hillary is doing what she's been doing all along: answering question after question, day by day, introducing herself and her positions time and again and doing the necessary hard, focused work needed to get the job done.

[skipos]

9. People don't realize that Iowa, NH and SC set the stage for the rest of the primaries

If Edwards would have come in 1st in Iowa, and Kerry in 3rd, do you really think Kerry would have still swept the rest of the primaries?

[oasis]

33. No more free "press" pass for Mr. Obama.

:hide::yoiks: He can run, but he can't hide.

[Dems Will Win]

2. Clinton is about to lose the first 4 primary states, including NV where Obama just put up ads

If she loses those, he will make up the 9-point difference in the national polls easily, thanks to 24/7 cable news and the Internet.

Feb. 5 will look very different then. Likely they will battle it out to the end, which Obama can do and Edwards can't because of lack of primary $$.

If you want to stop Hillary, vote Obama, not Edwards. Good guy, no money. Obama has raised about $80 million bucks...

[antiimperialist]

5. Putting up ads doesn't guarantee a win

I don't see Clinton as vulnerable as you say in NV, nor do I think she is "about to lose" in SC.

[LeftCoast]

3. Historically, IA and NH have really established the winner

With other primaries so close behind this time it will be interesting to see if that holds. For a long time I felt that being in CA would prevent me from having a say this time, but now I'm starting to think that maybe I was wrong. Maybe for once my vote will count in terms of the nomination.

Anyway, interesting article. Thanks for posting!

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Didn't Bill Clinton Lose IA and NH?

I know that Bush lost NH.

[ccpup]

13. Bill Clinton didn't do anything in IA

during either 1991 or 1996 and, yes, I believe he placed 2nd or 3rd in NH, but was still the Comeback Kid because he had done horribly in IA just weeks (a week? I'm not sure anymore) before.

So, they really don't decide the winner. I trust -- in terms of delegates -- that February 5th will be the deciding date. And Hillary has strong leads and on-the-ground operations and support already in many of those States.

[karynnj]

22. Iowa was basically conceded to Harkin

The media labeled Bill Clinton the comeback kid - after BC labeled BC the comeback kid after coming in second in NH to MA Senator Tsongus. The next states were mostly all Southern and Clinton won all of them. That calendar was set up well for a Southern. Note that both the winners were considered to be favorite sons. So, though he lost, Clinton was the one with momentum coming out of NH - though Tsongus should have been.

Had Edwards been a stronger candidate in 2004, he was in position to do the same - he was considered second out of Iowa and NH, and there were then 7 states that a southern populist should have won - Kerry won 5 of them.

[LeftCoast]

16. Looks like you are correct

According to Wiki:

In the recent past, the Iowa caucus had been the launching pad for candidacies. But since Harkin was himself an Iowa Senator, attention turned to New Hampshire. In January 1992, Clinton led Tsongas by a solid 16 points with nobody else even close. But Clinton was undone by two damaging stories that cut against his credibility. The first was the revelation of his affair by Gennifer Flowers, a former night club singer and television reporter from Little Rock, Arkansas. Clinton blunted this story with an excellent interview on 60 Minutes at the conclusion of Super Bowl XXVI, where he flatly denied (and subsequently admitted under oath later in his life during the Paula Jones controversy) having had this affair. The story that caused Clinton greater damage, however, was the notion that he had 'dodged the draft' in order to avoid military service in the Vietnam War. The draft story put Clinton in what pollster Stan Greenberg called 'meltdown.' Clinton lost nearly twenty points in less than a week. But the formation of the War Room helped Clinton overcome his troubles and finish second behind Tsongas. Clinton was even able to write off Tsongas' win by claiming that Tsongas' home in Lowell, Massachusetts actually meant Tsongas should have won. Newsweek brilliantly captured the press coverage of the 1992 New Hampshire primary by printing a cartoon with Clinton and Pat Buchanan, the runner-up who gave George H. W. Bush a scare on the Republican side, with second place medals on top of a victory stand while Bush and Tsongas stood with gold medals off to the side pouting.

Full Wiki Article

This makes me think there's an even better chance that IA and NH won't decide it. I better figure out who I'm going to vote for.

[wyldwolf]

11. there are circumstances this year that will dilute that

The growing popularity of absentee voting as a matter of convenience, for one. People in states like Florida, CA, and New Mexico will have already cast ballots in large numbers before New Hampshire, and in one case (I believe Florida) before Iowa.

[LeftCoast]

19. I have a theory about that

I think that in past primaries voters in other states hadn't made up their minds before IA & NH voters went to the polls. This time, they're close enough together that many people have already come to a conclusion about who they support. If that's the case, it would seem to me that it's harder to change a mind already made up than it is to swing an undecided.

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Restance Is Futile... All Your Vote Are Belong To Clinton

God bless your optimism. But don't bet the farm on it.

[K Gardner]

12. I'm vaguely remembering this "all your votes are belong"

theme but it's driving me crazy and I can't remember where it came from! Was it from 2000?? Refresh my memory..

[MannyGoldstein]

17. Actually, It's A Star Trek Thing

(I think)

[Nailzberg]

37. It's a video gamer thing.

Poor Japanese -> English translation in a video game featured a bad guy warning "All Your Base Are Belong to Us." This then became a widely circulated joke on the internet among gamers.

[Egnever]

39. Yup and theres a wierd video that goes with it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_your_base_are_belong_to_us

and the video

http://allyourbase.planettribes.gamespy.com/video1_view.shtml

[Nutmegger]

35. Wrong place

[karynnj]

7. I'm in NJ and I do not see any passionate support of HRC - or anyone else

I do think that this could change. If Obama wins NH and Iowa, there could very well be a surge towards him.

There are 2 factors that could cause this - 1) A shift of black voters that is now seen in SC would be important in NJ and 2) In at least the last 2 elections the main pushback I heard against Corzine and Menendez was the perception that they could be corrupt - and these were calls and visits to registered Democrats. Obama is seen as fresh and different - if HRC's campaign finance issues color her image - people in NJ could well take a chance.

Not to mention, if any other experienced candidate from the second tier gains - they will take people from HRC, from people thinking Obama is too inexperientced.

[antiimperialist]

8. Polls are more reliable than one person measuring the passion level

In my opinion.

[karynnj]

20. Polls measure response, not the softness of response

It is well known that people when called don't want to say "I don't know". The comment I responded too SAID that there was no way HRC could lose. My response was not that she couldn't win, but that I do see that if you had coverage of a triumphant Obama making excellent victory speeches, those numbers could change. The idea that Iowa and NH won't have an impact is not what happened in past years. (Also, imagine 2 HRC concession speeches and the impact on inevitability.)

Note - my comment was that change was possible, yours that sufficient change could not happen. BOTH comments are equally opinion and I stated my as that - opinion. The poll measured, however well, the status at one point in time. I don't doubt that HRC is ahead, but the Quinnipeac polls in NJ are not very good. They showed the Menendez and Corzine races - both of which were easy wins - as close.

[calteacherguy]

26. .

:thumbsup:

[Quixote1818]

10. Of course, NJ is practicaly part of New York. nt

[ccpup]

14. them's is fightin' words

if you're from either NY or NJ. :evilgrin:

[Madam Mossfern]

32. I grew up in NY

and my husband *forced* me to move to NJ :cry: after we had our first child. There is no way you can compare the two, and to this day, I still have NY friends who will not 'cross' the river to NJ.

That being said, I don't see overwhelming support for Clinton, but the County Committee for Essex is supporting Hillary I've been told. I have also been told from some people that they will vote for Edwards anyway. Bottom line, thank goodness for the privacy of the voting booth...one would want to go agains them.....

[antiimperialist]

15. Not really. NY is much more liberal

...

[forsberg]

34. not quite

Some of the Jersey suburbs (particularly the more affluent one's) can trend very conservative. All in all NJ is a Dem state, NY is way more liberal.

[K Gardner]

18. People forget that not ALL of the U.S. is blanketed and mired in

coverage about the campaign. In a majority of the states, including mine, there is literally no coverage. Unless you're a political junkie, people simply aren't paying attention right now. Sometime in Jan, the talk will start ramping up for Feb 5. Until then, HRC has the only real name recognition. At that point, it's also anyone's to win and the news coming out of Iowa, NH and SC will play an important part in the way the rest fall. That's just my humble opinion, after years of watching and participating in these campaigns, especially in the South.

[Franc_Lee]

21. New Quinnipiac poll isn't going to mean beans in Iowa or New Hampshire...

[0007]

38. I wonder who they polled! The students perhaps in this bullshit school!

[Beacool]

23. Hooray for my state!!

Of course she's ahead by a wide margin, and not just in NJ, also in PA, NY and CT.

Do some of you really think that the majority of thinking people would be drinking the Obama Kool-Aid and vote for a guy with the least national experience in the bunch?????? Please note that to people tenure in a state legislature does not count as national experience.

I'm in Florida for the holidays and the mantra seems to be the same here as in the NE: Obama is too inexperienced and should have waited a few more years.

Most in my state couldn't care less who wins in IA, or even the 3 first states, we have a mind of our own and no other state or over-hyped celebrity endorsement is going to change our minds. Frankly, some people are so appalled at the prospect of a neophyte like Obama winning the nomination that we had no problem signing them up for the campaign and obtaining contributions from them.

[goldcanyonaz]

24. STFU! Obama is the next Messiah!

:sarcasm:

[calteacherguy]

25. "A real horse race in normally Democratic New Jersey"

From the OP:

In a presidential showdown, Clinton gets 45 percent to Giuliani's 44 percent, unchanged from a 44 - 44 percent tie October 17.

"If Clinton and Giuliani are the nominees, the outlook right now is for a real horse race in normally Democratic New Jersey," Richards added.

[SaveElmer]

28. My guess is Obama andEdwards would do significantly worse

Than Hillary...if this lines up with past polls...

In fact they have trouble in many northeastern state were Guiliani to be the nominee

[forsberg]

30. But in turn...

The Carolina's and Virginia would be in play down south if it's Edwards vs. Giuliani

[SaveElmer]

31. I doubt the Carolina's will be...

Hillary actually leads Edwards there...and it is likely Edwards would have lost reelection had he run...

In Virginia polls have shown Hillary to be very competitive...ahead in some within MoE in others...

[forsberg]

29. Hillary and Giuliani...

...are both seen as Democrats in NJ

[forsberg]

27. alright Jersey!

[Nutmegger]

36. It's not over yet ...

Edwards 2008!!!