Why the Iowa caucus polls are bullshit

[Herman Munster]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/12/13/71015/731/556/421517



Consider the table above, which shows demographic results for the Democratic samples. Gender is relatively consistent, with the percentage of women varying between 51% and 62%, but age and education are comparatively more varied. Comparisons by age are the most difficult, given inconsistent age breaks, but the percentage of 18-29-year-olds in the Democratic samples varies from 2% to 20%. The percentage of 18-44-year-olds varies from 19% to 33%, under 50 varies from 29% to 50%. The portion with reporting a college degree varies from 35% to 56%...

Conclusion:
So why did we go to all this trouble? As should be obvious now, the differences in the way pollsters measure "likely caucus goers" in Iowa are huge, not just in how narrowly they define the electorate but in the kinds of voters pollsters select as "likely caucus goers." But these issues are not unique to Iowa. In 2004, 21 states held Democratic primary elections with single digit turnouts (as a percentage of adults), and only New Hampshire had a turnout that topped 20%. Over the next year months, results from hundreds of polls will be released, polls that will set expectations and drive media coverage, and yet those of us that consume the data will know very little about how tightly the pollsters screen and the kinds of voters they select. If we want to be educated poll consumers, we are going to need to do something to change that. We need to push toward greater routine disclosure of methodological details.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Would these same polls still be bullshit if they showed Hillary winning?

Just wondering.

[Kucinich4America]

2. Why are they only "bullshit" now that Hillary's numbers are dropping?

:shrug:

[Herman Munster]

3. why are they meaningful since Obama is winning?

Didn't I hear from Obama supporters for months that the polls were bullshit?

[calteacherguy]

6. You didn't hear that from me.

Mostly meaningless that far out, perhaps. And natiional polls are still mostly meaningless. It's only now polls are becoming meaningful, because more people (at least in places like Iowa) are starting to pay attention and make their choices.

Polls months ago were almost all name recognition of the media's chosen one.

Edit: O.K., maybe you did hear that from me. ;-)

[earthlover]

16. No, Herman Sir, you heard supporters of ALL THE REST OF THE CANDIDATES ...

getting pissed off at the Hillary Gaggle's obsession with posting polls every five minutes for the past 6-8 months!

When anyone dared point out it was too early way back last spring or summer....the Hillary Gaggle laughed themselves silly!

So now that the caucuses are upon us...and Hillary is not doing so well....we are now being told that the polls were bs all along!

NOW YOU TELL US!!!!!!!

So how do we predict the outcome? Oh....I know....just ask the Hillary Gaggle for their spin on things.

[calteacherguy]

4. Why your sudden concern? nt

[Herman Munster]

5. why do you switch candidates like clothes?

[calteacherguy]

9. LOL.

I hadn't realized I only changed my clothes twice in the past months. I thank you for your concern.

But the fact is, the majority of voters change their minds during the course of a primary campaign. Just ask this enlightened Iowan:

http://iowa.barackobama.com/page/community/post_group/IowaHQ/CBmX

Why are you still stuck on the same old candidate? :-)

[Herman Munster]

10. I'd be happy to donate some new clothes to you

[earthlover]

18. Apparently Mr Munster hasn't noticed that a LOT of folks have changed from Hillary to Obama....

Maybe it is a trend!

[Inspired]

7. Convenient indignation. n/t

[Donnachaidh]

8. after weeks of posting polls suddenly it's all bullshit?

Could it have something to do with this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2471706

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Gman]

11. The REAL reason the Iowa caucuses are bullshit is

there are only 57 delegate votes at stake. Compare that to California's 440, New York's 280, Michigan's 156 or Texas' 228. In other words, it's small potatoes and complete media event driven bullshit. Let Obama or whoever have Iowa, even New Hampshire (30 delegate votes). Hillary will take the 4 states mentioned above (1,104 votes). It's over already.

[mtnsnake]

14. self delete, meant to post at the bottom

oops

[earthlover]

19. Then I guess you thought Dean won CA, NY, MI and TX in 04!

Iowa and NH change the national polls.

Part of this is because most Americans don't even start paying attention until Iowa is over.

If Obama wins IA, NH and SC....he will also win CA and NY.

Take that to the bank.

[suston96]

12. Try these from RCP. 12/14/2007

Friday, December 14

Race Poll Results Spread

Florida Republican Primary Rasmussen Giuliani 19, Huckabee 27, Romney 23, Thompson 9, McCain 6, Paul 4 Huckabee +4
New Hampshire Republican Primary FOX News Romney 33, McCain 20, Giuliani 16, Huckabee 11, Paul 8, Thompson 2 Romney +13
New Hampshire Democratic Primary FOX News Clinton 34, Obama 25, Edwards 15, Richardson 6, Biden 2 Clinton +9
New Hampshire Democratic Primary Research 2000 Clinton 31, Obama 32, Edwards 18, Richardson 8, Biden 2 Obama +1
New Hampshire Republican Primary Research 2000 Romney 31, McCain 17, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 9, Paul 7, Thompson 3 Romney +13
General Election: Giuliani vs. Obama Rasmussen Giuliani 43, Obama 43, Und 14 Tie
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Romney 41, Obama 45, Und 14 Obama +4
Iowa Republican Caucus Research 2000 Huckabee 31, Romney 22, Thompson 9, Giuliani 9, McCain 7, Paul 7 Huckabee +9
Iowa Democratic Caucus Research 2000 Obama 33, Clinton 24, Edwards 24, Richardson 9, Biden 3 Obama +9
South Carolina Republican Primary CNN Huckabee 24, Thompson 17, Romney 16, Giuliani 16, McCain 13, Paul 11 Huckabee +7
South Carolina Democratic Primary CNN Clinton 42, Obama 34, Edwards 16 Clinton +8
Iowa Republican Caucus Hotline/FD Huckabee 36, Romney 23, Thompson 8, Giuliani 12, McCain 5, Paul 5 Huckabee +13
Iowa Democratic Caucus Hotline/FD Obama 27, Clinton 27, Edwards 22, Richardson 8, Biden 5 Tie

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[Franc_Lee]

13. Hillary Diehards won't accept reality... on to New Hampshire...

[mtnsnake]

15. The only time Iowa really means anything is if someone is expected to win big & they get knocked off

In this Primary, it's pretty much a toss-up, so there won't be any huge shockers unless someone like Biden wins it.

A Biden win would be huge.

[Andy823]

17. As would

A big loss for Hillary! :eyes:

[earthlover]

20. Wow mountainsnake you have changed your tune...you recently said Hillary was the front runner!

Hillary WAS the front runner. And she is stumbling in Iowa. Headline: Hillary loses her front runner status and wins a distant 3rd place finish.....