Within the next 2 weeks, we should have a pretty good idea

[cali]

of what's going to happen- at least in NH and SC. I'd never guess on Iowa, but the other two are primary states. If Clinton keeps slipping in the polls in those 2 states- no matter what national polls say, and Obama and Edwards keep rising, we'll see a realignment in the race. So by the middle of December, we'll have a pretty good idea of where things are going. If Clinton doesn't win NH or SC, there'll be a battle royale for Super Tuesday.

[yurbud]

1. I hope you're right. A Clinton nomination will cause a wave of apathy and half-hearted support on

our side.

She is running so corporate and pro-war in the primaries, when candidates traditionally play to the base, it's hard to imagine where she will go in the general election--unless she campaigns dressed as a general.

[Renew Deal]

2. "A Clinton nomination will cause a wave of apathy and half-hearted support on our side"

Absolutely correct. This is the #1 problem with her candidacy by far. And it's not the only major problem. There are several more.

[cali]

3. She'll do the same thing then as she's doing now.

It's hardly been a secret that she's running in general election
mode now. And I have no idea- anymore than you do- what sort of response her nomination would elicit from the dem electorate or indies. It's actually impossible to make those kinds of prognostications.

[dmallind]

4. True, but we can extrapolate

And much of her support is very strong and very firm. So are her negatives of course. This is the result of being a front line national figure for so long - opinions are very entrenched. She will have lukewarm support or none from an extremely small subset of Democrats - who just happen to be amongst DU's largest and most vocal constituent groups. Again - DU does not reflect the whole party let alone the whole nation. Not an original statement, but one that needs repeating it seems, since the tendency is to extrapolate from the echo chamber that is DU.

[EV_Ares]

5. Maybe it is impossible to guess the reaction if she gets the nomination but

I honestly think after all of this is over with and should she get the nomination she will have the support from the democratic electorate. Yes, those such as myself will be disappointed but not disillusioned and it will be on to defeat whoever the republican candidate is. There is no other commonsense way regardless of who your democratic choice is. You have supreme court nominees, the war, healthcare and the economy will be worse. I trust any of the democratic nominees to handle those problems for the American people by far more than any of the idiots on the other side. People will realize that when we get to that point.

[yurbud]

6. she would probably win, but the race will be closer than necessary and it will take more...

arm twisting to get her to do right on the big issues like trade, the war, health care, and anything that cramps corporate donors.

[asdjrocky]

7. California might finally count.

A dream come true for me. I like your scenario.

That would be one exciting Tuesday.

[calteacherguy]

8. Completely disagree.

We won't know a thing until after Iowa.

[PurityOfEssence]

9. Don't be so sure

Iowa's a real toss-up and there's a feeling of confusion or at least a non-committal air about things.

It feels to me like it's going to remain fluid and not change too drastically until the first of the year when the big flailing panic starts. Although it's a shame the primary season's so short this year and the disruption caused by Florida and Michigan are going to really muddy the waters, it's going to be a hell of a show: quick and frenzied.

If things aren't fairly decided by the end of January, Super Duper Tuesday might get split up and leave us open for a brokered convention.

[Cameron27]

10. I think you're right.