Clinton's Miles Ahead of the Pack Despite Attacks

[Tellurian]

By John Fout

TheStreet.com Political Correspondent

8/23/2007

Karl Rove -- the retiring political brain behind President Bush -- made two predictions in the last week:

1) Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.) will win the Democratic nomination, and

2) She couldn't possibly win the general election because of her high "negatives."

The pundits rushed to analyze what Rove had to say. They debated his motives, with many opining it was reverse psychology -- anointing Clinton to avoid a somehow more dangerous Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) -- with parallels to 2004 when Rove attacked Sen. John Kerry (D., Mass.) to build up a beatable opponent.

The pundits got it wrong.

If I were to compare Kerry to someone in this election, it would have to be Obama. Kerry and Obama have similar styles. Both tend to give long and wonky answers to questions that leave the average person less than inspired. This has worked against Obama in the debates to date. His campaign recognizes it and decided to pull the plug on any unscheduled debates.

What the pundits didn't bother to question was whether Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. That's because they assume it's a done deal. The first primary vote won't be cast until early in January, and her aura of inevitability stands firmly in place.

How did it happen so soon?

The early attacks on Clinton missed the mark. Everyone loves to point out what a polarizing figure she has been historically. But two books released in the spring casting her in a negative light were quickly ignored as rehashes of old news, and a loud collective yawn issued from the public.

Clinton followed up by outperforming the other candidates and being more presidential in the debates. Her formula has been quick, on-point answers, while letting more of her personality shine -- at times humble about her past mistakes on health care and often with fiery responses in defense against attacks.

Clinton's opponents hoped to make hay on her 2002 vote to authorize force in Iraq. It hasn't worked for two reasons. First, the vote has often been mischaracterized. The legislation was supposed to allow inspectors to return to Iraq to conclude inspections and if Saddam Hussein didn't play ball, he would face the specter of force. The Bush administration short-circuited the process, however. This policy failure can't fall on the shoulders of one senator.

Second, the average American supported action in Iraq at that time. Bush's approval ratings were above 80%, and few questioned his choices. Clinton's vote was in lockstep with how people felt. Her change of heart on Iraq since has tracked consistently with the opinion of the general public.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/clintons-miles-ahead-of-the-pack-despite-attacks/markets/marketfeatures/10375944.html

...great point brought out about Obama. He IS exactly like Kerry, long winded and wordy. The big difference is Kerry's accomplishments dwarf Obama's constant touting of his (thin) resume marking his community service.

[AtomicKitten]

1. nationally -- but that ain't where it's going down

woo-hoo

[DURHAM D]

4. Where is it going down - Canada? Mexico? Estonia? eom

[durrrty libby]

9. ...........

:rofl:

[emilyg]

11. What do you mean?

[AtomicKitten]

24. this primary will be decided in about three states (nt)

[zulchzulu]

34. Predicting anything using national polls this far out of the first votes is like...

...telling someone that they will catch a bad cold on March 11th next year. The dynamics and predictability models are about as sound as "proof".

However, if it was March 18th, we could see a reason for the "cold" prediction. That would be a lucky guess.

[Capn Sunshine]

2. Footnote: Primaries have yet to be held

And this guy predicted Lieberman would get the nomination

[Tellurian]

14. Link or Slink... please!

[oasis]

3. America needs Hillary. Voters will come to realize it sooner or later.(k&r)

[Tellurian]

7. I posted this because this is the first accurate reportage of events

I've read that coincide with the historic rise of Hillary in a reality based chronology.

IOW- This guy gets it!

[opihimoimoi]

18. and the Hill gonna win big time.... :o) Aloha Nui loa....Wassup Guy?

[oasis]

32. Aloha Opi

I'm working now in Las Vegas. If you live here, you gotta work plenty Bruddah.

It's always good to see your post. I've been busy and have only started posting regularly here for about a week or so.

I checked the Hawaii forum last week. No mo' Opi or Kamaaina :cry:. I miss our "strategy" sessions.:-)

[opihimoimoi]

33. Auwe...auwe...no mo Kama and Opi...but there is HOPE...come bik Hawaii and we get LUAU

[Ethelk2044]

5. It is not about the national polls. National polls will not get you to win in the

primary. It is all about state polling.

[DURHAM D]

6. This article doesn't mention any polls ...

(except Bush approval ratings of 80% after 9/11)

What polls are you referring to?

[ProSense]

8. Hillary's Huge Gaffe(s)

Hillary's Huge Gaffe

"Hillary develops Foot in Mouth Disease"

Hillary needs to let go of the Anbar spin.

Hillary: ''I believe we are safer than we were.''

[Tellurian]

12. hahahahaha!

:rofl:

GO HILLARY!

[ProSense]

13. Nervous laughter? n/t

[Tellurian]

15. not at all.. I was laughing at you..nothings changed..still into the brigade of links..

glad to see you can print your own words!

[karynnj]

17. They lead to Hillary's words -

many of which were not that good. I'm still wondering what she meant about preparing for the "new war", which she said before the VFW.

[Tellurian]

22. I hope it's a War on Republicans..

which I'm more than willing to help her fight.

[karynnj]

27. It clearly wasn't given the context

[DURHAM D]

23. It is a reference to the fact that political leaders are always

responding to prior wars and not thinking or talking about what pitfalls may be encountered ahead.

Fortunately, our military leaders are a little better at future planning than politicians.

[durrrty libby]

10. Great article Go Hillary!

[karynnj]

16. I never thought you would influence me - but you made me see why I should support Obama

There are resembances to Kerry - and contrary to your belief - They both have the ability to inspire because they have integrity and principles. That might be why people like Richard Clark and Gary Hart respect both of them. You might want to consider that had Ohio not suppressed the vote and engaged in fraud, Kerry would have won a far tougher race than B. Clinton ever faced. (and most consider Bill the far better politician in the family) Saying Obama is like Kerry is a great compliment to him.

I have never seen an inspiration Hillary Clinton speech, I have heard several inspirational speeches from both Kerry and Obama. Hillary has been well prepared in the debates - but never inspirational - and sometimes shrill. Give me any line in any Clinton speech, Bill or Hillary, that will be remembered in 35 years - so far, Kerry will be remembered for, "Who do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?", Bill for, "I did not have sex with that woman". I have no idea what Hillary's is. Obama's convention speech outclassed the speech Clinton gave for Dukakis (or the ones for Kerry or Gore.)

Hillary Clinton will likely win the nomination, because of the fact that the party and media are both behind her. If that were not the case - they would have spent hours speaking of the recent missteps.

[Tellurian]

19. The difference between us Karynnj is..

and happy you brought this topic up. In case you've never noticed, I prefer a do'er. Someone that knows how to get things done efficiently with expediency. To date Hillary has run a fabulously flawless campaign. A serious indication of how she would represent the presidency and our country after she is elected.

Inspiration is not the remedy for what is wrong with this country. Inspiration is a feel good nuance and is used as a technique to soothe the spirit. When I need inspiration, I can meditate.

What we need is a leader that has the knowledge, experience and RESOLVE to get this country back on track, restoring it's lost prestige with other countries and pay immediate attention to our own Domestic agenda the Bush Administration has ignored for far too long. A leader that will give a leg up to the people who have been left behind by Katrina and every other disaster the Bush Administration has failed to address over the last 7 1/2 yrs.

The only candidate I see fit to lead our country in this way is Sen Hillary R. Clinton.

Here are the 10 popular reasons for Voting for Hillary:

The Hillary Clinton Campaign has a Top Ten List of Reasons To Vote For Hillary:

10. To build a more tolerant, united America, working to achieve big goals again, with a president who’s ready for change and ready to lead from day one.

9. To restore America’s standing in the world and repair our alliances.

8. To combat terrorism, strengthen our military, and care for our veterans.

7. To restore competence and end cronyism in government, with a president who cares about and works for Americans who have been invisible to this administration.

6. To return to fiscal responsibility, move back toward a balanced budget, and safeguard Social Security and Medicare for future generations.

5. To promote 21st century scientific innovation, including stem cell research.

4. To provide world-class education, from universal pre-kindergarten to affordable college for all.

3. To create good jobs for middle-class Americans with the right investments in modern infrastructure and in new clean, energy-efficient technologies that reduce our dependence on foreign oil and combat global warming.

2. To achieve universal, affordable healthcare.

1. To end the war in Iraq.

[ProSense]

20. "To date Hillary has run a fabulously flawless campaign."

Are you in another world?

[Tellurian]

21. Thankfully, I am in the "real" world with (already) 40% of this Nation..

what world are you in?

[Forkboy]

26. That's ok,about 80% of the "real world" thought the war was a good idea.

And about 40% still think Saddam was behind 9/11.Have fun in the "real world".

[karynnj]

31. Isn't the Real World just a (non) reality show on MTV?

[karynnj]

29. I think she is seeing the world according to Carville and Penn

They did a great job with their former candidates, such as Leiberman 2004.

As to supporting a Do er, Kerry has a solid list of accomplishments and is far more a do er than Mrs Clinton ever was. On some things, like being the man to have the guts to challenge President Reagan on arming the Contras, you might be ignoring the fact that against great odds Kerry did manage to bring some really bad things to light because at least Bill Clinton was on record that the Contras, right wing thugs that they were, should be supported. I don't recall the governor or the first lady of Arkansas ever addressing the fact that the CIA knew about and allowed crack cocaine to be flown into thier state. On the environment, Kerry fought for decades for clean air and water. Clinton established a task force 2 years before he left office to see if Tyson Chicken's waste products ending up in Arkansas' streams was a problem.

Even since 2004, it was Kerry who led on Iraq. All Hillary led was the clique of her lap dog fellow Senators and beltway pundits who were nipping at Senator Kerry's ankles as he tried to move the country to demand that a failed policy be changed. The Clintons thought debating Iraq could hurt politically so they opted for politics over policy. (Ironically this was wrong politically, as was Bill Clinton's advice to Kerry to concentrate on economic issues and back gay bashing amendments.) After the last 7 years, the country is likely not looking for a triangulating politician. Some of the similarities between Obama and Kerry, may make him that man.

It is true is that the echo chamber seems to be able to declare what is a "Flawed statement" and what isn't. What the Hillary team appears to have learned from 2004, is that an echo chamber that attacks and distorts the words and records of others works. If this is true and the Republican does it too - this will be an awful divisive election where there is not a real dialog on the challenges before the country. If the Republican can project the image that he will not engage in swiftboating and it looks like Clinton is doing it, the ironic result is that 2008 might be the year when the public says "enough" and punishes the party they perceive doing it.

To me it is strange that Clinton, the run away front runner, is initiating these ridiculous attacks on Obama. She will need some of the activists behind him in the general election if she wins. Attacking Obama's speech on terrorism as naive when people like Richard Clarke and Gary Hart were in agreement, puts her against the Democrats from the Clinton years with the most credibility on the issue. Another similarity to Kerry that you failed to mention was that both Kerry, with deep experience, and Obama advocated a change from the past several decades of US foreign policy.

Kerry in 2003/2004 had fewer statements that could be distorted that Hillary already has. My guess is that when Hillary is the nominee many of the flawed statements she has made will be put together by the Republicans to show a triangulating politician - just when a man or woman of integrity and character is sought.We also have rarely seen Hillary in the MTP type talk shows, where past footage is used to "catch" the politicians. Kerry excelled in those because he is extremely honest and could always calmly and non defensively explain anything thrown up. It will be interesting to see if Clinton will be anywhere near as successful on those shows. The Republicans will also likely build one of their lame candidates as being authentic and not triangulating. (That the Clintons spun triangulating as a positive in the 1990s makes it hard to say they don't do that.)

Iraq and Corruption were 2 key issues in 2006, Hillary is not the best Democrat on either. The powers that be in the party and media, still infatuated with Bill, are really doing the party a disservice in joining her campaign in attacking other candidates. I will vote, very reluctantly, for her in the general election, because of things like Bush threatening to veto a bill on children's health insurance - Clinton would not do that and many Republicans would.

Some people, such as a young woman I know - who was for Kerry- will not. She is liberal on all economic issues and has personally worked on social justice projects and is for foreign policy that emphasizes diplomacy and going to war only as a last resort. She is also against the death penalty and was disgusted by Clinton's 1992 actions. But, she is also anti-abortion. Where with Kerry, she found enough to balance this out in his life story, character and positions - with Clinton she does not see enough on the other side of the ledger. (I was in the bizarre position of advocating that Hillary was better to her.) What I don't know is whether once there is a specific Republican, whether she will choose Hillary as the lesser evil rather than not vote, for President, while she votes for lower offices. What I can see is that I could not argue based on issues - like character and integrity - that are important to this very good woman, who is as politically aware as anyone I know - but is not willing to vote for anyone.

[sampsonblk]

25. Side point: Clinton and Kerry are NOT polarizing figures

Neither is McCain.

They all had the misfortune of opposing GW Bush and the right wing. That's why they have such high negatives. Poor McCain can't win for losing. He is saying all the bullshit they want to hear (except on immigration) and they still hate him.

And Mrs clinton? She and Bill are the last two Dems to kick their ass. The RW can't let it go. Good. Neither can I.

None of them have done anything to be considered 'polarizing.' Its really about what's been done to them.

[Tellurian]

28. "Its really about what's been done to them."

True enough.And why they've grown a thick enough skin to take the RW on playing them into the 3D Chess Board.

[Skip Intro]

30. K&R

with pleasure

[illinoisprogressive]

35. yesterday Todd and Cillizza said the race is much closer and the polling is not showing the real dea

they said it's really about 15 points to 20 points off and the pollsters and strategists say about 15 to 20 is more undecided leaning and not real support
very very soft.