Is Clinton Really Ahead In Iowa?

[William769]

As silver spring ably diaried, Zogby has a new poll that shows Clinton with a solid lead in Iowa. I paused before posting this yesterday since Zogby's polling partner on this one was the wingnut "news" site Newsmax but while I'm still puzzled as to why they'd be underwriting a poll of Democrats in the first place, Zogby's release of the results today and the fact that Pollster has added it to its list of Iowa polls, lends it credibility.

The poll was a telephone survey of 503 likely Democratic caucus goers in Iowa (8/17 - 8/19.) Results are as follows.

August May
Hillary Clinton 30 24
John Edwards 23 26
Barack Obama 19 22
Bill Richardson 10 6
Joe Biden 3 4
Others 2 2
Not Sure 13 16

Now, Iowa is notoriously hard to poll, so what significance does this poll have if any? Well, for one, the trendlines are excellent for Clinton. Not only does Hillary achieve 9 point swings over Edwards and Obama since the May Zogby poll, but Pollster's average currently has Clinton slightly ahead of Edwards 26.8 to 25.4 and her trendline is up while Obama's and Edwards's are down. In addition, looking more closely at Pollster, this is the first non-ARG poll to have Clinton at 30 or higher and the first non-ARG poll to have her in the lead since May. Chris Bowers has more:

This moves the six-poll simple mean in the state to Clinton 26.2%, Edwards 24.8%, Obama 19.5%, and Richardson 11.2%. If the two "tighter screens," from the University of Iowa and ABC News / WaPo are included in the average, it slightly shifts to Edwards 25.7%, Clinton 25.3%, Obama 19.2%, Richardson 11.7%. So, no matter which way you look at it, Clinton is making up ground on Edwards in Iowa, and right now is at least in a statistical tie with him in the state.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/21/174356/167

[antigop]

1. I'll ask again-- how can that many people support her when she has NO specific healthcare plan?

I guess Hillary supporters don't need healthcare?

She has no plan to fix one of the most pressing domestic issues.

[rinsd]

2. This shit again?

Electoral support is obviously not contingent on one having a comprehensive healthcare plan.

Otherwise Dennis Kucinich would be winning.

[LynneSin]

8. Yes - this shit again. Get over it, we must all deal with this shit until the end of eternity

Need a shovel??

:cry:

[William769]

Some people here just don't get it here and they never will.

They are going to be very unhappy come the Democratic Convention.

[ChiciB1]

20. If SHE Gets The Nod... THEY SURE WILL! As Every Day Goes By

my anger rises! This is getting to be too much! Why MUST we HAVE TO HAVE HILLARY!

I don't like having it shoved in my face every hour of every day! I'm just about to the point where I WON'T vote if she gets the nod! THAT'S something I NEVER thought possible, but I've had enough of HILLARY!

And truth be told, there WAS a time when I supported her! I'm getting more and more upset about this all the time! MONEY, MONEY, MONEY! Sure DOES talk loud and clear!!!

[Nederland]

45. I hate to state the obvious...

...but we don't have to have Hillary. All you have to do is get enough people to vote for someone else during the primary and we'll have someone else.

[ChiciB1]

65. Don't For A Minute Think I'm NOT Trying... As The Idiot Would Say...

It's HARD WORK!!!

[sandnsea]

3. Stunning isn't it

No health care plan, has said she won't deliver until her second term, wishy-washy on Iraq, bullying on Iran, no change in foreign policy, won't commit to fair trade, - what the hell does anybody see in her.

[antigop]

4. Yes, quite stunning, sandnsea... quite stunning.....n/t

[antigop]

5. And how interesting that my pointing out her lack of a health plan is called "shit" n/t

[redqueen]

9. Well it's bothersome...

maybe if you wouldn't keep harping on shortcomings, people would stop being upset about them.

Kinda like that whole 'bad news from Iraq' thing... sort of...

[rinsd]

11. No, your tactics are shit. You spam Hillary threads with this and ignore replies.

[redqueen]

7. Don't forget she'll continue to shun Cuba...

let's not leave that out.

[jgraz]

24. God forbid she should lose the pro-Batista vote

All 12 of them. :eyes:

[redqueen]

25. I just snickered like mutley!

:7

[redqueen]

6. Faith.

She has that D by her name... and... and she's a Clinton... and... she's a Democrat.

*sigh*

[antigop]

10. Truly amazing that asking for healthcare plan specifics is called "shit" n/t

[redqueen]

12. Perhaps those calling it such already have insurance?

:shrug:

[antigop]

13. Why would asking for plan specifics be called "shit"? I'm really curious. n/t

[redqueen]

14. Shines a light where they'd like it kept nice and dark, I'd think.

Pointing out negatives is 'attacking', you know. No matter if you're talking about height or serious policy issues (IMO the lack of a policy is a serious policy issue).

[jgraz]

15. You say that like some of her other plans ARE specific.

The only specific policy proposal I've heard from her is her shameful, pandering plan to award veterans "Cold War Medals" for fighting the commies. Why doesn't she just give them "I think you're retarded" medals instead?

[rinsd]

18. Yup no specific plans at all

:eyes:

In addition to capping troop levels, Hillary's Iraq Troop Protection and Reduction Act of 2007 would:

* Require President Bush to begin removing the troops from Iraq within 90 days of passage, or Congress will revoke authorization for the war.
* Put an end to the blank check to the Iraqi government and give them real benchmarks with real consequences if they fail to meet them.
* Require the Secretary of Defense to certify that all troops sent to Iraq have the training and equipment they need.


Hillary has consistently supported tax relief for middle-class families. She has supported permanently ending the marriage penalty, extending the lower-income tax rates, providing a deduction for college tuition, and providing a refundable child tax credit and adoption tax credit.

She has worked to make college affordable and accessible, fighting to increase the federal Pell Grant, which currently covers just a third of tuition at an average public college. Hillary has also proposed the Student Borrowers Bill of Rights, a comprehensive set of reforms that would eliminate unscrupulous lending practices.

Among the issues she has fought for and will make a priority as president are:

* Attracting and supporting more outstanding teachers and principals, and paying them like the professionals they are.
* Reforming the No Child Left Behind Act. This law represented a promise -- more resources for schools in exchange for more accountability -- and that promise has not been kept.
* Giving new parents support and training to promote healthy development for their children.
* Increasing access to high-quality early education and helping to create Early Head Start.
* Passing legislation to provide respite care for caregivers of elderly and disabled Americans.
* Helping to pass the Family and Medical Leave Act to enable new parents to take time off without losing their jobs, and expanding it to make it available to more parents and to provide for longer leave.
* Advocating for adoption and for abused and neglected children -- as First Lady, Hillary pushed legislation that more than doubled adoptions out of foster care.
* Promoting programs, like Home Instruction for Parents of Preschool Youngsters, that provide new parents with support and guidance in caring for their children. As First Lady of Arkansas, she helped bring HIPPY to the U.S.
* Protecting children against violence and sexual content in the media and studying the impact of electronic media on children's cognitive, social, and physical development.
* Providing meaningful support to households, called "kinship care" families, where grandparents and other relatives are raising children.

Hillary has proposed a comprehensive, 10-point plan to restore Americans' confidence in their government by increasing transparency and cutting waste and corruption. Her plan includes:

* Banning Cabinet officials from lobbying a Hillary Clinton administration.
* Strengthening whistleblower protections.
* Creating a public service academy.
* Ending abuse of no-bid government contracts and posting all contracts online.
* Cutting 500,000 government contractors.
* Restoring the Office of Technology Assessment.
* Publishing budgets for every government agency.
* Implementing Results America Initiative to track government effectiveness.
* Tracking and eliminating corporate welfare.
* Expanding voting access and safeguarding voting machines.


Hillary introduced a plan to Congress to create a Strategic Energy Fund that would inject $50 billion into research, development, and deployment of renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean coal technology, ethanol and other homegrown biofuels, and more.

We can create the fund without raising taxes by giving oil companies a choice: invest in renewable energy themselves or pay into the fund. She would also eliminate oil companies' tax breaks and make sure they pay their fair share for drilling on public lands.

[jgraz]

22. So apparently you're unclear on the term "specific"

Go read through John Edwards' site. That might clue you in a bit. Though I'm guessing probably not.

[rinsd]

23. Which Edwards website? His campaign or his old senate one? Because they say different things (nt)

[jgraz]

28. More hillbot bullshit

You have nothing to support that statement. You just throw out another attack to distract from your own candidate's weakness.

But while we're on the subject of consistency, could you please point out where Hillary discusses her support for the flag-burning amendment? Since she's so consistent and detailed and not at all craven or pandering I'm sure she must have that front-and-center when she touts her record in the Senate.

[rinsd]

33. Speaking of bullshit. Hillary did not support the flag burning amendment.

What Hillary has supported (along with Durbin and Obama to name just two) is a narrow protection of the flag.

The bill she cosponsored in 2005 was nearly identical to the amendment to the amendment offered by Durbin.

"Clinton, D-N.Y., has agreed to co-sponsor Utah Republican Sen. Bob Bennett's measure, which has been written in hopes of surviving any constitutional challenge following a 2003 Supreme Court ruling on the subject.

Her support of Bennett's bill follows her position in Congress last summer, when a constitutional ban on flag-burning was debated. Clinton said then she didn't support a constitutional ban, but did support federal legislation making it a crime to desecrate the flag.

In her public statements, she has compared the act of flag-burning to burning a cross, which can be considered a violation of federal civil rights law.

The Bennett-sponsored measure would outlaw intimidating any person by burning the flag, lighting someone else's flag, or desecrating the flag on federal property."

I hear Edwards has recently apologized for his entire Senate career in addition to his full throated support of IWR and his votes on the bankruptcy bill.

[jgraz]

36. Typical Clintonian hair-splitting

Why don't you point to that Edwards Senate site you just lied about? I'd love to see it.

[rinsd]

37. Hair splitting? You stated something that was wrong. You got corrected.

"Why don't you point to that Edwards Senate site you just lied about?"

That was a joke referencing how different Edwards the candidate is from Edwards the Senator.

You obviously got the joke because you got all pissy about it.

[jgraz]

41. Ah, it was only a joke...

Hmm... maybe that's what Hillary's doing with her campaign. Well, I for one am gonna laugh my ass off when she finally says "only kidding!!"

[rinsd]

43. Its good to have a sense of humor about defeat.

Till next time we cross swords.

[catgirl]

63. And replacing american workers with workers from India

Her plans aren't always as they appear. Ask Buffalonians.

[redqueen]

26. "I think you're retarded" medals

:rofl:

you are killing me!

[WillTheGoober]

17. Well ...

People trust her on Health Care.
She was talking about a Universal Health Care Plan before anybody was -- and that's why people trust she has something very good in her pocket.

She hasn't released specifics because of strategic reasons.
She releases it today; Republicans build an entire system around making it fail.

This woman, whether you like it or not, is built to win.

Peace.

[emilyg]

29. I trust her with my grandsons future.

[jgraz]

31. I trust her with your grandson's future, too

However, if your grandson were a poor black child living in a single-parent household, I'd trust her a good deal less...

Edit: Or, if your grandson worked in manufacturing

Edit: Or worked at all

Edit: or bought toys or clothes for his children

Edit: I take it back. I don't trust her at all.

[WillTheGoober]

32. Yah ...

I don't really know what any of that means.

[emilyg]

64. You're making assumptions about me.

[Nederland]

46. Apparently

Healthcare is not as important to those being polled as it is to you.

[antigop]

48. Poll: Majority back healthcare for all

http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=41c0806504a22e7460b0dcade68579b86b7b490a

[antigop]

49. Poll question: How serious a problem is it for the US that many Americans do not have health ins.

70% said VERY SERIOUS

[Nederland]

50. Interesting

I wonder why they don't care that Hillary doesn't have a plan then? Can you explain it in a manner that doesn't insult primary voters?

Perhaps the reason is that although a majority support healthcare for all, that poll says nothing about whether or not it is their top priority...

[antigop]

55. The poll didn't ask if they knew whether a particular candidate had a plan or not. n/t

[sampsonblk]

47. Is this a joke?

[catgirl]

62. She's too busy taking bribes, I mean money, from pharma people

Iraq? The surge is working!

[Kagemusha]

16. Didn't I read this exact headline last night?...

Did something happen to that post?

[William769]

19. I didn't see it.

[Kagemusha]

21. Well ok then, it happens to the best of them...

I just could swear I saw the exact same post before...

[Broke Dad]

27. Zogby is polling the wrong people in Iowa . . .

Hillary gets her ass kicked by Edwards when the polls contact Iowans who have actually gone to a caucus, not think they might.

The Peter D. Hart poll says:


Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has an eight-point edge in the Iowa Democratic race over closest rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll released by the ONE Campaign to Make Poverty History.

The poll, taken by 509 past Democratic caucus attendees or likely participants, has Edwards at 30 percent, followed by Clinton at 22. Barack Obama is third with 18 percent, Bill Richardson fourth at 13 percent, and Joe Biden fifth at 5 percent. Dennis Kucinich took 1 percent of the vote. Eleven percent remain undecided, with Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel receiving no votes.

The poll was conducted by Peter D. Hart Research Associates on August 2 and 3, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Nice try Elmer . . . Actually, with any luck Hillary will finish fourth in Iowa behind Edwards, Obama and Richardson.

As we say in Iowa, "Hillary Stay Home!"

[jgraz]

30. Shhhh...we want it to be a surprise

I love all the arrogant Hillary-is-inevitable posts. It will make our celebration that much sweeter when she concedes the nomination.

[Kagemusha]

35. Well presuming Iowa doesn't get crazy-stupid, there's still 6 months.

A lot can happen in 6 months. A lot sure happened with her husband's campaign, back in the day. But we'll see.

[rinsd]

34. Yes only the privately commission poll is right. Not the half dozen that say otherwise.

"Hillary gets her ass kicked by Edwards when the polls contact Iowans who have actually gone to a caucus, not think they might"

Huh?

"The poll, taken by 509 past Democratic caucus attendees or likely participants,

:rofl:

[Broke Dad]

40. The good news is that I am in Iowa . . .

And unless rinsd is in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, all the bs posted here on DU won't matter.

We get to cast the first vote in the 2008 season and for me and the majority of Democrats in Iowa, it won't be for Hillary. Jump up and down, stomp your feet, hold your breath. Even post some more of your bs. I actually get to vote for somebody else. ABC! You get to watch.

Plus since this is a caucus, I can invite my anti-Hillary friends. If I bring enough of them, Hillary's supporters may become "unviable" and then they don't even get a delegate, not one. Zero. And in rural counties like where I live, that is a very real possibility. Plus it takes fewer caucus attendees to get a Democratic delegate in rural counties in Iowa.

So get a hobby other than posting bs about Iowa polls . . .

[rinsd]

42. Considering your arguing tactics please caucus for Edwards. It can only help Hillary.

"So get a hobby other than posting bs about Iowa poll"

I'm sorry you don't like uncomfortable things being pointed out like Edwards losing support in IA and Hillary gaining.

You're the one who has made outrageous assertions based on little more that your sphere in rural IA.

Polls are science. You are talking religion.

[Broke Dad]

51. Polling is about sample sets and statistics and margin of error

If you go to www.iowapolitics.com you will seeing the polls done in Iowa by all the polling firms.

Local media sponsored polls, like the Des Moines Register and KCCI, have consistently found Edwards comfortably ahead of "your girl." Others like Zogby, doing polling a week or two earlier or later, find "your girl" in the lead. So either traditionally stubborn Iowans are that volatile in their presidential preferences, or the out-of-state pollsters are sampling the Iowa Democrats in different ways than the local pollsters.

I'm not at all uncomfortable with a competitive race. I just like to point out to the Hillary drones on DU that polls done by pollsters familiar with Iowans arrive at different results (scientifically) that are at odds with the slanted bs the three or four of you are trying to peddle here. The Iraq war pointed out the difference between the ground truth the spin cycle. I am on the ground in Iowa and you are part of the spin cycle. As long as you keep keep posting spin on DU about Iowa, I'll keep posting polls that refute your spin and bring in the ground truth.

[rinsd]

52. Research 2000 is a local polling organization? Because they did KCCI's poll

Unless its your contention that because a local new org contracted for the poll that somehow makes the poll local.

Also does the University of Iowa count as local?

Because they have Hillary in the lead in likely caucus goers and right on Edwards ass (about 1 pt behind) when it comes to the most likely caucus.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/august/080907dempollresults.html

The Des Moines Register's last poll was taken in mid-May

"I just like to point out to the Hillary drones on DU that polls done by pollsters familiar with Iowans arrive at different results (scientifically) that are at odds with the slanted bs the three or four of you are trying to peddle here."

With zero evidence to support the contention that local firms out performed national pollsters. Hell even your definition of local polling firm needs work.

You are to be blunt, talking out of your ass.

[Broke Dad]

56. Thank you for a such a target rich response . . .

The University of Iowa poll was of ALL registered voters. While we have great turnout at the Iowa caucuses, my town has 1000 residents and just under 500 registered voters. We had 56 people at the caucus in 2004. And I am the precinct chair again in 2008! That allows me to declare groups of supporters "unviable" and then they have to join another candidate's group. So if we have 56 show up again in 2008, and only 8 of them support Hillary, she gets zero, zip, nada delegates. And I get the pleasure of telling them to pick another candidate. Joy joy!

The Hart poll was after the Register poll by almost three months and it had Edwards leading "your girl" by the same eight points.

You are not here and your own distinction between polls that show Edwards winning and "your girl" winning also sucks. Unless you have a factual reason for the big swings day to day and week to week between the results of your preferred pollsters and my preferred pollsters, stfu. Iowans are not that fickle. So somebody is sampling the wrong subset of Iowans or they are asking the wrong questions.

The good news is that my ass is in Iowa. Instead of just posting meaningless bs on DU like you, I can work on the ground in Iowa, where it counts and I can help to stop Hillary's campaign for President.

[rinsd]

57. The Hart poll you claimed was only past caucus goers and were wrong?

"The University of Iowa poll was of ALL registered voters"

Wrong again.

See this is why it pays to actually read the links provided.

These results are from a random, statewide poll of registered voters in Iowa conducted July 29 through Aug. 5. Two groups were interviewed: a random sample of 907 registered voters and a sample of 787 people planning to attend the caucus. The margin of error is +/- 3.25 percent for the full registered voter sample and +/- 3.5 percent for the full caucus sample.

<snip>

Of the caucus sample of 787 people, 425 identified themselves as Democrats. The margin of error for this subsample is +/- 4.9 percent. The caucus sample can be split into two groups: those most likely to caucus and those who are only potential caucus goers. Of the 425 Democratic Caucus goers, 319 were most likely to attend; the remaining 106 were less likely, or potential caucus goers.

Clinton Leads All Potential Caucus Goers; Edwards Leads Most Likely Caucus Goers

Among the total caucus sample combining both groups of Democratic caucus goers, Clinton leads with 26.8 percent, followed by Obama, 22.3 percent, Edwards, 22.1 percent and Richardson, 8.5 percent. Another 16.2 percent responded "don't know," and 4.1 percent support other candidates. Because this sample includes potential caucus goers, it is not directly comparable to the March UI Poll sample of likely caucus goers.

Among only the most likely Democratic caucus goers, Edwards remains the leader, competing primarily with Clinton for caucus support. Since March, the difference between Edwards and Clinton has evaporated. Edwards is supported by 26 percent of likely caucus goers; Clinton is supported by 24.8 percent. Though both remain front runners, both saw their support fall since March. Edwards fell by 8.2 percent, and Clinton fell by 3.7 percent. Obama, with 19.3 percent, held steady. Most notably, Richardson saw his support increase significantly, from less than 1 percent to 9.4 percent. No other candidate reached 2 percent. A total of 14.4 percent are undecided, an increase of more than 1.9 percent since March.

Redlawsk said Clinton leads among the combined likely and potential caucus goer samples because she picks up substantial support among the potential caucus goers. These are Democrats who claim they may caucus in 2008, but admit they have not done so regularly in the past. Clinton receives the support of nearly 33 percent of this group, while Obama receives 25 percent and Edwards only about 10 percent.

Here's the link again. http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/august/080907dempollresults.html

"You are not here and your own distinction between polls that show Edwards winning and "your girl" winning also sucks."

You were the genius that claimed Research 2000 was a local firm. You obviously didn't know what you were talking about and were shooting from the hip. Maybe next time you should verify info before you post.

"The good news is that my ass is in Iowa and instead of just posting meaningless bs on DU like you, I can work on the ground in Iowa where it counts to stop Hillary's campaign for President."

And I work here in CA to see that Hillary wins this state on Sooper-Dooper Tuesday and begins to solidify her claim on the nomination.

[IA_Seth]

38. Oh i dunno...

I am not a Hillary supporter, but it's silly to think there are no Hillary supporters in Iowa, or that these polls are so off that she'll be beaten by Richardson (unless a lot changes). She has the support of one of the biggest labor leaders in my area, among others, and that alone will help her become organized for the caucus.

I'll admit that among 'activist' types she probably wouldn't win it all, but I do think there are a whole lot of 'regular' people out there who are longing for the Clinton years after this Bush administration. IF she can get these regular folk to caucus she'll be sitting pretty. Organization is the crux, and hers seems to be shaping up.

And I wouldn't put a lot of faith in ONE poll (pun intended), just because it says what you might want it to.

Just my opinion.

[mruddy]

39. 1st place only polls from Iowa mean nothing.

Read up on our Iowa caucus procedures.
<http://www.iowacaucus.org/iacaucus.html>

"....Democratic candidates must receive at least 15 percent of the votes in that precinct to move on to the county convention. If a candidate receives less than 15 percent of the votes, supporters of non-viable candidates have the option to join a viable candidate group, join another non-viable candidate group to become viable, join other groups to form an uncommitted group or chose to go nowhere and not be counted...."

Many caucus goers supporting non-viable candidates will realign in order to have their presence count. So what's more important than first choice in any poll in Iowa is the 2nd choice of those who end up in non-viable groups. With so many candidates this time, I imagine there will be a good percentage of caucus goers that end up switching during caucus resulting in the winner not being the 1st choice of the majority.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

44. if so, any hop I had of a Dem. Party that represented the middle class is gone

and Rupert Murdoch's buddy, the former Wal_mart board member will bring triangulation back
expect her to go hard right as soon as she has the primary locked up and thinks she can take liberals and progresisves for grnated
my prediction" bill nelson or harold ford will be her v-p nominee

[TheFarseer]

53. This is very hard to believe

Living about a mile outside of Iowa, I see absolutely no support for Hillary but lots of support for Obama and a little bit of love for Edwards. It's pretty hard to imagine how she's ahead in any polls, frankly. Maybe Eastern Iowa, where most of the voters are, is different?

[liberal N proud]

54. On the 4 trips across Iowa this summer, I only saw Edwards bumper sticker

I drove across Iowa from east to west and north to south 4 different times this summer and spent a couple of weeks in state.
The only bumper stickers I saw the entire time in Iowa were for Edwards.

[WillTheGoober]

58. Umm ...

Don't get ahead of yourself there, Iowa.

I believe Iowa said "Go home Bill" -- and he did go home, to the White House.

Am I right there? Iowa didn't vote for Bill Clinton.

I don't like the idea of 1 person speaking for an entire state.
Perhaps that's foolish of me.

Admittedly, I know little about Iowa. :)

[rinsd]

59. All the Dems avoided Iowa in 92 because Harkin was running (nt)

[WillTheGoober]

60. Thanks...

All I'm saying is Hillary is going to ask for everybody's votes ... but I think she's Iowa-proof at the end of the day.

[surfermaw]

61. Is Zogby reliable

Not too sure!

[BadgerLaw2010]

66. No one is ever ahead in Iowa without at least a ten point lead.