Perky: Why Obama can win in the South

[Perky]

Obviously He will get alot of African-american support. but in the primary I doubt it will exceed 60% but in the General election he ought to get 120% of what Kerry and Gore got. He get a bump from African AMerica enthusiasm, He gets a bump because of new registrants. but that is fairly predictable.


But here is the thing ans in some ways you have to look beyond skin tine to see this.He is attractive to Southern Whites who did not live through the 1960s... If you go back and listen to the Selma Speech he undeniably laid claim to the Dream. what Dream. MLK's "I have a Dream" He is very clearly asking to be judged not by the color of his skin but by the content of his character. And it is the combination of white guilt, genuine likability and a real recognition the Obama is not like John or Jesse or even Andy or Julian. He is a new generation full of promise and hope and not bitterness and rage. His candidacy is not about protest it is about hope.

He is the fulfillment of everything Martin Hoped for and instinctively they like that idea. The tick is that he can not be seen as beholden to the old Guard of th Civil Rights movement and yet has to appeal to an African American base that listen intently to what the old generation says.


He will get more votes than Kerry or Gore on the Basis.


Combine that with a moderate pro-choice republican with a tarnished past or a flip-flopping Governor from Mass. z. Southern conservative voters could decide to stay home.

This Perfect Storm may not win him a single Southern state other than Virginia. But If he makes the GOP spend money defending the base, that is money they will not have in Ohio and Missouri.

Truth is we win with Obama if we pick off Virginia. So don't be surprised if miracles happen.n

[sniffa]

1. sniffa: why these candidate threads are useLess

aside from the anecdotaL proof, it adds to the notion that there are onLy 2 (ok, occasionaLLy 3) candidates running for the dem nomination. aLso, for every obama thread, there's at Least 2 times as many hiLLary threads... and those are pretty f'n useLess aside from causing the hiLLary peopLe to get a tingLing sensation in their nethers.

[Perky]

2. oh please

:nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity:

[sniffa]

4. oh pLease yourseLf

at Least this wasn't another fucking thread about persecuted crhistians. :boring:

[Dawgs]

3. Nice post.

I live in Atlanta, and see many white northern transplants would love to vote for Obama. I would not be surprised at all to see Obama take Georgia. I know that might sound stupid, but with the number of black people in the south, and the number of people I see that like Obama it could certainly happen.

As far as Hillary is concerned, no chance at all in Georgia. I went to a NHL hockey game last year in Atlanta, and when they showed a picture of her on the scoreboard the whole place started booing. She has no shot in Georgia.

[Alamom]

5. It's not looking that way right now.....but it is early. You may have missed this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3425715