http://thenexthurrah.typepad.com/the_next_hurrah/2007/07/more-speculatio.html#comments> More Speculation on Pakistan
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> By Sara
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> Spending time running Google News on Pakistan and related subjects has finally paid off in the form of interesting announcements of what appears to be the deal to end all deals that will make Cheney spit wooden nickles.
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> It is about a proposed pipeline, one that makes sense in terms of National Interests of all the involved States and that cuts the US, the Brits, and the Gulf Arabs totally out of the action. It is so strange that our press is focused on the NIE and the FATA and the Pakistani-Afghani border, and this other deal is not being mentioned above the radar.
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> Apparently Iran, Pakistan and India have agreed to build a Natural Gas pipeline that will move Iranian, and perhaps Turkmenistan Natural Gas from Iran, across southern Pakistan, and into India where it will tie into the existing Indian pipe grid, making possible, for instance, the operation of the Enron built white elephant of a power plant near Bombay. But the pipeline will also serve cities in the Ganges Valley. Pakistan will be able to buy gas from the system for several of its larger cities. In addition, a LNG facility is to be built at the new Chinese developed port at Gadar, and another smaller port in SE Iran now being built by a joint Iranian-Indian venture. And who does the finance? -- Russia has announced that Gasprom, their mostly Government Owned Oil and Gas concern will finance a major part of the project. In otherwords, after 200 years of trying, Russia will have an outlet into the Indian Ocean. Doing LNG will mean gas can be moved to China and Japan, and any other SE Asian country that can pay. And yes, India, Russia and Iran plan to finance a railroad alongside the pipeline that will run up into Turkmenistan, and connect to the Russian Rail System. All this was being announced while we focused on the NIE and the battle of the Islamabad mosque. No one announcement was put out by all the partners, rather they each announced the agreement, and their part in it.
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> Apparently the real reason Musharraf finally sent troops into the Red Mosque was because of Chinese demands. The attacks on Chinese workers in Peshwar, on the women in the massage parlor, and now car bombs directed at fifty Chinese Engineers working at Gadar apparently provoked the Chinese Officials to demand Musharraf bring the Islamists under control. The announced route of the pipeline benefits Baluchistan and Sind, but not the FATA or NWFP, the Pashtoon areas. It looks as if Russia's Gasprom is the major financer, with marketing rights to the LNG, with India involved as a major, but lesser partner, though India probably will be the major consumer of the gas. Of course Iran gets a means for selling its Natural Gas, of which it has a huge supply. Turkmenistan also is rich in Gas -- who knows whether they will finally develop a working state, but essentially it puts Russia back in the economic drivers seat there. (Can't you just see Dick Cheney tracing the plan on to his maps, and realizing all of this will be outside the control of the US, The British, the Gulf Arabs, not serviced by Halliburton?) Musharraf will have to make a good deal with the Baluchi state government and the tribes in the region, but far better than the US giving him cash to deal with FATA and NWFP -- this deal will depend on his gaining control in the sense that the Chinese mean control, for the sake of their investment. It also engages him in a joint venture with India that will also change the political dynamics regarding Kashmir and the historic use of militant islamists in that dispute. From the reports, all of this was negotiated without Washington getting word of it till the agreements were complete. By the way, there is no one source for this story -- it is buried in Indian and Pakistani newspaper articles, a few from China, some from Iran and several from financial papers in Singapore and Taiwan. It is announced, but they are playing it well under the radar. In effect, while Bush and Cheney and much of Congress have been engaged in the Surge Debate, this thing has been put together on the basis of national self interest and clear economic advantages. No one is raising an army -- no one is establishing foreign bases, but without Question Pakistan is being told to use its own resources to control its own crazies.
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