Political Wire: Clinton faces Electability Questions

[illinoisprogressive]

First Read gets an advance look at a new Mason-Dixon survey that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton "is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating."

"In the poll, 48% say they would consider voting for Clinton versus 52% who say they wouldn't. By comparison, majorities signal they would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates: Giuliani (64%-36%), Fred Thompson (62%-38%), Bloomberg (61%-39%), Obama (60%-40%), Edwards (59%-41%), McCain (58%-42%), Biden (57%-43%), Richardson (57%-43%), Huckabee (56%-44%), and Romney (54%-46%)."

http://politicalwire.com/

[Bitwit1234]

1. OH does Obama a resident of Illinois

go to the top of the eligibility chart...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm........

[Radical Activist]

2. That's no surprise.

A lot of people really don't like her. Especially in the South and Midwest. And its not just because she's a woman.

[NOVA_Dem]

3. I just don't see the people of OH and PA voting for her.

[flpoljunkie]

4. More on this survey from Time with the resulting implications for Hillary Clinton and Democrats

On the question of electability, Mason-Dixon phrased the question this way:

I am going to read that list of names again. This time, I want you to assume that person is the 2008 presidential nominee of their political party. Please tell me if, today, you would or would not consider voting for them as the next President of the United States.

"Would" means that you would at least consider voting for that candidate depending upon circumstances, while "Would not" means that you would not vote for them under any circumstances.

The results were as follows:

Would/Would Not
Giuliani 64/36 (+28)
Thompson 62/38 (+24)
Bloomberg 61/39 (+22)
Obama 60/40 (+20)
Edwards 59/41 (+18)
McCain 58/42 (+16)
Biden 57/43 (+14)
Richardson 57/43 (+14)
Huckabee 56/44 (+12)
Romney 54/46 (+8)
Clinton 48/52 (-4)

Again, Hillary finishes last - this time by a mile.

The results from the Mason-Dixon poll help bring a bit of perspective back to both the national polls and to the recent general election match-ups which show Clinton moving into a small lead over Giuliani and maintaining a bit larger lead over Fred Thompson.

I think most observers agree 2008 is shaping up to be a favorable political climate for the Democrats. But as the Mason-Dixon poll shows, Hillary is saddled with such high negatives and such fixed public perceptions that have hardened over the course of nearly two decades in the national spotlight, she has very limited upside no matter how hard the political winds blow in her party's favor.

Are Democrats really going to put their best opportunity to win the White House in recent memory in the hands of woman who more than half the country says they won't vote for? And if the answer is "no," at what point in the race will that decision begin to manifest itself in the polls with, most likely, the ascension of Barack Obama?

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/06/new_masondixon_poll_hillarys_h.html

[William769]

5. Oops.

Quinnipiac University Poll for OH.
5/11/2007Hillary Clinton 38%
Barack Obama 19%
John Edwards 11%
Al Gore 10%
Bill Richardson 2%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Joe Biden 1%
Unsure 14%
Other 3%


Bigger oops.

Franklin & Marshall College/Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL TV PA.
6/4/2007Hillary Clinton 40%
John Edwards 21%
Barack Obama 18%
Unsure 18%
Other 3%

[NOVA_Dem]

6. What I see is more than half the party wants somebody else and

you can't win the presidency w/ votes from our side alone.

[wyldwolf]

8. well, sure. In any primary race from any election year, combined stats from runner-ups ...

...will surpass that of the frontrunner. :shrug:

[NOVA_Dem]

9. true, but...

I don't ever see her getting over high 30's or low 40's. From what I've seen in my time in PA/OH she could easily (more likely) lose "blue collar" states like OH and PA.

If Gore doesn't get in or these other non-candidates bow out we are going to lose again in '08 and the Supreme Court is going to even more F'd up than it already is for the next 30-40 years.

[ChiciB1]

7. It's Early & Hillary Clinton Has Been Anointed By "The Big Guys" So

naturally we keep getting her stuffed down our gullets! While I don't use the word "hope" anymore, I can only wish that the varnish of her will wear down and she will fade away!

I once was one of her biggest supporters, but in the past year she completely lost me! She's a great campaigner, but I'm afraid of her these days. I think Bill was really really good for our country, but she's NOT Bill! And having said even that much, Bill was much more moderate than I am!

Besides, we need to be rid of the BUSH/CLINTON family oligarchy! Don't we have more than two families in this country???

[NOVA_Dem]

10. To me she is Lieberman in a Pantsuit...

My opinion of her started to change when she started up w/ the videogames legislation and flag burning. I thought to myself "You're not going to fool anybody, we've already made up our minds about you."

[ChiciB1]

11. Mine Thoughts Started A Bit Earlier... Sad To Say!

I do tend to find agreement in your statement to some extent, but Mr. Lie bothers me a bit more!

[churchofreality]

12. Will you stop trashing Hillary?

I'm sick of your posts. Maybe I'll spend all day posting crap about Obama.

[NOVA_Dem]

13. Don't worry about that, there's a cadre of Hillary supporters

who are already on the job.

Welcome to the DU Primary Wars of '08

[BenDavid]

14. Gee, instead of giving postive

sentences for HRC's performance last night and all the polls saying she has picked up support throughout the country,and Obama is sinking as well as Edwards, the haters only post hate. Just tell me what issue you would like to debate that either Edwards or Obama have and I will debate you fair and square and be polite....
Hell, it's a lot easier to be for or against an issue when you have no constituency, no angry mob of voters to face or to hold your feet to the fire when they might disagree. Obama might have voted for the Iraq Resolution if the Sears Tower was brought down. and Edwards doesn't have to worry that Carolina is what, maybe 50/50 on this war (?) because he could lose Carolina and still be president. Show me a senator who always does the right thing and I'll show you his headstone.
I will take the Big Dawgs to heart when he says why Hillary will win:
"Hillary will never let a swift boat-style attack go unanswered." Ohand if you do not believe it then ask the Obama campaign that has tried two times to go negative against Hillary and both times HRC and her rapid response team handed Obama and his campaign their asses on a plate....
I do thank you
Ben David

[Alamom]

15. 625

The Mason-Dixon survey was conducted June 23-25 with 625 likely general-election voters. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.