Kentucky-Gov: We have an election next week

[skipos]

by kos

The primary is next week. On the Republican side, we have a battle between ousted Rep. Anne Northup, who faces relatively few (for a Republican) ethical problems and won for years in a Democratic-leaning district on the basis of her strong political skills, and Ernie Fletcher, who is one of the most corrupt governors in the entire nation (indicted, no less), facing investigations galore, and sports a pathetic 38 percent approval rating.

So who do you think Kentucky Republicans are leaning toward?

Bluegrass Poll. 5/10-15. Likely Republican voters. MoE 5.2% (No trend lines)

Fletcher 41
Northup 26
Harper 10

SurveyUSA. 4/28-4/30. Likely Republican voters. MoE 4% (3/31-4/2 results)

Fletcher 46 (40)
Northup 34 (31)
Harper 14 (16)

SurveyUSA polls always push leaners, which often accounts for some of the differences in numbers. Regardless, in both polls Fletcher is at that magical 40 percent mark, which would allow him to win the race outright. Under 40 percent, and he'd have a runoff with the second place finisher. I can hardly believe it, but KY Republicans are about to hand us a gift.

(snip)

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side:

Bluegrass Poll. 5/10-15. Likely Republican voters. MoE 5.2% (No trend lines)

Beshear 27
Lunsford 21
Henry 13

SurveyUSA. 5/12-14. Likely Democratic voters. MoE 4% (4/28-4/30 results)

Beshear 32 (23)
Lunsford 23 (29)
Henry 18 (18)

So the two polls differ on who leads, but either way It looks like the Democrats are headed for a runoff. Nickolas sees a late Beshear surge (like the Northup one), also too recent to be picked up by the polling.

Let's hope that Beshear crushes Lunsford. Lunsford is no Democrat, helping raise money and campaigning for Fletcher in 2003

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/5/18/115515/128

[William769]

1. I just got back from Kentucky.

Most of my extended family as in cousins are Republicans. They are so disillusioned right now being associated with the term Republican the one's that are going to vote may not be voting Republican.

[MasonJar]

2. No ethical problems? I guess if one considers voting with Bush

97% of the time moral and ethical she gets to go to go.