Rasmussen Reports: Obama Within Two Points of Clinton

[flpoljunkie]

Obama Within Two Points of Clinton

April 16, 2007

The race for the Democratic Presidential nomination is getting closer and Illinois Senator Barack Obama has pulled to within two points of the frontrunner, New York Senator Hillary Clinton. At the same time, a huge gender gap has arisen within the Democratic Party.

The latest Rasmussen Reports’ national poll shows Clinton with 32% support, Obama at 30%, and former Illinois Senator John Edwards steady in third place with 16%. No other Democrat tops 2%. Last week, Clinton had a five-point lead. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton by seven, and our last release in March found Clinton enjoying a double digit lead.

Rasmussen Reports releases national polling data on the Democratic nomination process every Monday and on the Republican race each Tuesday. The current survey of 774 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted April 9-12, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

For Clinton, this week’s release shows the lowest level of support in any Rasmussen Reports poll since former Vice President Al Gore was dropped from the list of potential candidates in mid-February. Over the past three weeks, Clinton’s support has averaged 33%, down from 36% in March.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Democratic%20Primaries/DemocraticPresidentialPrimary.htm

[PresidentObama]

1. Interesting. Not a big fan of national polls. But I'm glad it's a horse race n/t

[flpoljunkie]

2. Though I think the trendline here is clear.

[Tejanocrat]

9. The trend may be clear, but what is being measured is national support. Since 46 states won't get to

vote in a primary or caucus until after the caucuses and primaries in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the contest will be over or, at the very least, down to no more than two candidates by the time the votes are counted in South Carolina and long before over 90% of the voters who are the subject of the national poll get a say in the matter.

There is a trend, but that trend is not relevant to the election. Polling in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina is slightly more relevant, but this early, even that targeted polling is not terribly relevant.

[Deep13]

3. "...former Illinois Senator John Edwards ..."

Um, who?

[flpoljunkie]

7. I did not notice this glaring error. Thanks for pointing it out. Perhaps they'll fix it.

[HereSince1628]

4. Being the "rabbit" is not necessary an enviable position

with about 10 months til the first primaries. You gotta have quick heels or they'll be greatly chewed upon by that pack of dogs chasing the leader.

And it takes just one stumble, AAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! to put you in their jaws.

[zulchzulu]

5. ...."sampling error is +/-4 percentage points" = Crap poll

Hey, I like the results, but a poll with a MoE larger than 3% is not a very good poll.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Although, it is of 774 likely Democratic voters.

[NoodleBoy]

6. I'm suprised that over 78% of Dems asked expressed an opinion

in 04 it was constantly hard to tell who was the real frontrunner because so few people had a solid opinion.