OK, on to 2008. Who is vulnerable in the Senate?

[NewJeffCT]

OK, we have had our day to celebrate. Now, it’s time to focus on 2008.

I think Norm Coleman & Saxby Chambliss on the Dark Side of the Force could be vulnerable. Wouldn't it be great to see Max Cleland back in the Senate? Maybe Sununu in NH and Gordon Smith in Oregon? Can Harold Ford come back and challenge Lamar Alexander in ’08?

How about for the good guys? Landrieu, I'm sure. Pryor & Johnson as well.

Wikipedia lists a bunch of possible retirees as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008

• 1 Races to watch
o 1.1 Retiring Senators
o 1.2 Possible retiring Senators
 1.2.1 Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado
 1.2.2 Joe Biden (D) of Delaware
 1.2.3 Susan Collins (R) of Maine
 1.2.4 Thad Cochran (R) of Mississippi
 1.2.5 Elizabeth Dole (R) of North Carolina
 1.2.6 Pete Domenici (R) of New Mexico
 1.2.7 Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska
 1.2.8 Jim Inhofe (R) of Oklahoma
 1.2.9 John Kerry (D) of Massachusetts
 1.2.10 Frank Lautenberg (D) of New Jersey
 1.2.11 Carl Levin (D) of Michigan
 1.2.12 Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas
 1.2.13 Jay Rockefeller (D) of West Virginia
 1.2.14 Ted Stevens (R) of Alaska
 1.2.15 John Warner (R) of Virginia
o 1.3 Notable Democratic incumbent races
 1.3.1 Dick Durbin of Illinois
 1.3.2 Tom Harkin of Iowa
 1.3.3 Tim Johnson of South Dakota
 1.3.4 Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
 1.3.5 Mark Pryor of Arkansas
o 1.4 Notable Republican incumbent races
 1.4.1 Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
 1.4.2 Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
 1.4.3 Norm Coleman of Minnesota
 1.4.4 John Cornyn of Texas
 1.4.5 Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
 1.4.6 Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
 1.4.7 Jeff Sessions of Alabama
 1.4.8 Gordon Smith of Oregon
 1.4.9 John Sununu of New Hampshire

[MessiahRp]

1. I think Alexander may have a race from Harold Ford

From that concession speech it seemed to me that Ford is far from being done with politics...

Rp

[Democrat 4 Ever]

6. By all that is holy and good - we MUST get rid of McConnell. n/t

Look up evil in the dictionary - there is Smary Mitch.

Tuesday's election has ended Smary Mitch's plan to take over the Senate from Frist. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!

[Stinky The Clown]

26. I remember Lamar from when I lived in Tennessee .....

.... he was pretty popular as governor. I think he's more 'Tennessee mainstream' than Corker was. He'd be a tough get for our side. That plaid shirt he wore while walking over a thousand miles in the state while campaigning for Governor is probably in some GOP museum someplace.

[SaveElmer]

2. Allard and Specter...

Allard just squeaked through last time, and Colorado has been turning more blue since then...

Also I would be very surprised if Specter did not resign...

With any like Santorum will take another run at the Senate!!

[WI_DEM]

5. Specter isn't up until 2010.

[SaveElmer]

29. OOps...I saw his name on another list of 2008...

Senators up...and didn't check myself!

[CrispyQ]

47. Allard

I heard Udall will challenge him. Has anyone heard this?

[MADem]

3. That list of retirees is a bit optimistic, I think... NT

[WI_DEM]

4. Frank Lautenberg on our side is vulnerable, but he might retire

Tim Johnson always has a tough race. On their side I would go after Lamar Alexander (Harold Ford, Jr. might run against him), Norm Coleman, Libby Dole and if John Warner retires, I think Mark Warner would have an easy time of picking up Virginia.

[RFKHumphreyObama]

27. According to Wikipedia, Lautenberg is going to run again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections%2C_2008#Frank_Lautenberg_.28D.29_of_New_Jersey

[karynnj]

36. Lautenberg is not that vulnerable

He is great speaking to crowds in NJ - he's very likable and tells really great stories about Patterson, where he grew up. He is an all American success story - and his life story resonates in NJ. He was at a Menendez BBQ last fall and spoke mostly about Menendez, but when someone mentioned their family had come from Patterson, he talked about Patterson.

He grew up th eson of immigrants in Patterson. His dad worked at a silk mill there and his father pushed him to get an education telling him the air in the factories was harmful to the workers. His dad died young. Lautenberg fought in WWII and eventually became a very successful businessman - founding ADP. His comments on those mills were compelling and show the values he has.

The Republicans have not elected a Senator here snce 1972 - and that was Senator Case, who was anti-war. (He was one of the people on the SFRC who listened and spoke to Kerry in 1971) This year, the Republican tried to pose as a moderate and spent millions smearing the little known Menendez as a corrupt Hudson county boss. Even with the name of Kean, he lost badly.

The new Republican superstar is a federal District Attourney, from Mendham, NJ who has made a name for himself fighting corruption in NJ - where it is easy to find. I suspect that his being used by the Republicans to say there was an investigation of Menendez for renting to a HEAD START program that got federal funding could hurt if - as is very likely - there was no grounds for it - could backfire making him look like a political hack.

This is a very blue state. Also at that BBQ was Congressman Andrews, who seemed (from that speech) excellent. Another possible Democrat is Russ Holt - who would be an incredible Senator.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

7. I only lament this tide didn't happen for 2008's Senate cycle

LOTS of vulnerable Republicans up for re-election then.

[WI_DEM]

11. I disagree, I think we had a better cycle of vulnerable Republicans

this time around. I actually am worried about quite a few of our Dems in '08.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. But a lot of those Repubs won in 2002, and just barely.

And that was with the post-9/11 tide in their favor. I don't see any way those borderline winners pull that off again.

[Norquist Nemesis]

8. My nominations go to Coleman and Sessions! n/t

[ddbaj]

9. Coleman and Sununu

Coleman(MINN), Smith (OREGON) and Sununu(NEW HAMPSHIRE) should be targeted with all we got. If we field good candidates and throw a ton of cash their way, those three seats could flip due to the states they're in.

We could be vulnerable in Louisiana (Landrieu) and maybe New Jersey, just like this year.

Then it all depends on who retires, any retirement should be seized as a chance for a pick up.

With SO MANY GOP seats up, I think if we field a winning candidate in 08 (Which we MUST and WILL) and run decent people at the GOP weak spots, we should be able to pick up a few seats and pad our lead in the Senate.

[IA_Seth]

12. Especially Coleman! n/t

[ddbaj]

19. Hey! A fellow DUer from Iowa.

Our guy is pretty solid, eh?

[IA_Seth]

31. hell yeah...

All our candidates did awesome, I am so excited. Where are you located in Iowa?

Hey, come over to the Iowa Forum sometime, we're a pretty active group..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=152

[karynnj]

37. NJ is fine

We heard Bush could win NJ after it was clear that McGreevy was corrupt (and incidently gay) - Kerry easily won. We heard Corzine could lose when his ex-wife spread very negative stories. We were told Menendez would lose because he was corrupt and he won easily.

In 2008, if Lautenberg runs, he will likely win. If not either Andrews or Holt on our side are better than anyone they have. Kean Jr has to be dead after the nasty campaign he ran. Forrester has lost against both Lautenberg and Corzine - spending his own money each time - I think he realizes he is too conservative to win. The new superstar in waiting is Chris Christie - but I suspect that his being used to open "an investigation that seemed not to really happen" against Menenedez makes him look sleasy.

NJ is BLUE - VERY BLUE. Becoming bluer.

[hijinx87]

10. it already looks great!

the minority party (:)) has 21 seats to defend, whereas we only have 12. and
many of those are utterly bullet proof.

even this far out, gains are probable.

[central scrutinizer]

13. I think all of the Republican enablers would be vulnerable

especially if the public finally gets conclusive evidence of the massive war profiteering, fraud, cronyism, etc. that went on under their noses when they were in a position to hold hearings. Their silence and inaction will speak louder than any achievements they want to trumpet.

[Fovea]

15. Hoo boy

Has Pat Roberts GOT to go. Chuck Hagel...
I think Jim Inhofe is another one we can easily defeat.

Roberts has so much to apologize for.

On the primare race side -- Landrieu is a good start.

[BOSSHOG]

16. Louisiana will provide us with another freak show

as the GOP will go after Mary Landrieu's seat with guns a blazing. Mary is not the best democrat but she is one helluva campaigner. I so enjoyed her kicking gop ass in 2002.

[BOSSHOG]

17. The whispering has started in Mississippi about Cochran

Probably a good chance he will retire.

[Hoosier Dem]

18. The most vulnerable senators from each side...

For the Repigs, I think our best chances at pick-ups are:

1. Virginia -- I bet John Warner retires and Mark Warner will cruise into this seat. If John Warner stays in, I still put my money on Mark Warner. Maybe we'll get a Mark Warner v Felix Macacawitz battle.

2. Minnesota -- After Amy K's landslide, I'm hoping we can put this pig out to pasture

3. Colorodo -- Allard always just squeaks by, and CO is getting bluer every day. A good candidate in the Webb or Tester mold can pull this one off

4. Maine -- If Collins keeps her pledge to retire after two terms, this could very easily be a pick-up.

5. New Mexico -- If Dominici retires, I would love to see Bill Richardson run for this seat. If Dominici stays in, it stays R.

Our most vulnerable incumbents are:

1. South Dakota -- Tim Johnson had the closest race of all last time and they'll be gunning for him this time around

2. Louisiana -- Landrieu will be in for a tough fight. Adding in the shifting demographics after the Katrina exodus and she might be very vulnerable

Just my two cents

[ddbaj]

20. Woah.

Maine and New Mexico could be easy pick ups if the current GOPers go.

Don't forget Oregon. It's OREGON! I have faith.

[Hoosier Dem]

30. I just don't know that much about Oregon...

That's why I left it off my list.

[BOSSHOG]

22. You are right about Landrieu

but whomever chooses to run against her better pack a lunch and take his/her vitamins. Mary is a much better campaigner then she is a senator. I look forward to the show because Louisiana has a big bag full of lunatic republicans just dying to get their pictures in the paper.

[David__77]

21. I want Oregon' Smith gone.

He's a total right-winger and has no business representing Oregon. They need to find a telegenic rural candidate perhaps - maybe who could self-fund?

[sandnsea]

23. Smith from Oregon

Oregon's blueness has a stronger feel to it. We elected Kulongoski with a good margin and he isn't even that popular. We took back the House. Smith voted for the torture bill and I think we can get rid of him on that alone if we can find a moderately decent candidate, maybe Jim Hill.

[wyldwolf]

24. ...there is a faint rumbling in GA to draft Max Cleland to take back his seat

Of course, many on DU won't be cool to that. Max is, after all, DLC.

Perhaps we can convince someone like Bernie Sanders to come to GA and take on Chambliss?

[NewJeffCT]

25. That would be sweet

Chambliss going down to Cleland. That might get me misty eyed.

[Stinky The Clown]

28. I want a rematch of Saxby Chambliss against my beloved Max Cleland

Their shit won't work a second time and Max has chits spread all over the country he can call in for his defender corps. Max has fucking EARNED that seat, goddamit. He campaigned his ASS off for dems this go-round. Every Dem who ever wore a uniform will stand by his side.

[TheWraith]

32. Hmm.

I think that unless there's a massive turnaround in public opinion in the next two years, Susan Collins is in trouble. Pete Domenici likewise. Maybes: Ted Stevens, John Warner, John Sununu, and Norm Coleman.

[myrna minx]

33. This Minnesotan will do all in my power to launch

Norm *Dances on Wellstone's grave* Coleman out of Senator Paul Wellstone's sacred seat. If there is any justice in this world, Coleman will be soundly trounced.

[LynneSin]

34. I think the most vulnerable two republicans are Coleman and Sununu

Joe Biden retiring? Um, no

[Zodiak]

35. Good thinking posting this!

I have an agenda.

1. Increase our margin in the Senate to make ourselves invulnerable to a few turncoats when judicial nominations come up.

2. Make Joe irrelevent in 2008 by picking up at least one seat.

3. Possibly replace pro-corporate Democrats with worker-friendly ones where possible.

All of this takes targeting elections now and building an infrastructure as soon as possible.

I think Coleman is the obvious choice. Not only for revenge purposes (he is a scum that dances on the grave of his opponent), but also because his ideology is far to the right of his region. We can beat him.

[NewJeffCT]

39. Good agenda

I think #3 will take the longest to achieve, and will likely take several elections and at least a few retirements.

We definitely need to gain at least a few more seats in 2008, though.

[ermoore]

38. I figure . . .

Norm Coleman and Sununu are especially vulnerable and probably Gordon Smith too. Given New Hampshire's blue turn in 2004 and 2006 I really don't see Sununu holding on, but I don't know how popular he may be in the state.

Warner (VA), Domenici (NM), and Allard (CO) may retire (or may not), if they do then their seats would be open. Same with Elizabeth Dole.

On the other hand Johnson (SD), Landrieu (LA), and Pryor can probably expect tough races.

If Ford couldn't beat Corker in this year's political climate then there's no way he can beat Alexander in 2008 (assuming Republicans don't do something incredibly stupid).

[Hoosier Dem]

41. Pryor is safe...

He's VERY popular in Arkansas and plays all the right notes for the conservative crowd. Look for him to have a token opponent, much like Blanche Lincoln did back in 2004.

[SteppingRazor]

40. We could probably knock off Coleman in Minnesota, and if Collins retires...

a Dem could pick up that seat

[NewJeffCT]

42. Do you think Al Franken will run?

And, if he runs, will he get the nomination?

[SteppingRazor]

44. My opinions on this change so often. But right now, I think he'll run, I think he'll win

at this point, I think he will run. His jokes about it come too often, and are too half-serious. (I recall one a couple weeks ago. He was talking about tax-exempt status for churches, and how they couldn't be political, and said something about starting the "Church of Al Franken for Senate"). Also, once he started his own PAC -- the Midwest Values PAC -- a Senate run seemed almost a certainty, especially with the PAC's rampant success.

If he did run, I think he'd probably get the nomination. He's a hometown boy (kind of -- he grew up in Minnesota, though born in NYC), he's got the bully pulpit of his radio show, and despite being often smacked around here on DU, he's still a much-approved-of figure among most base Democrats -- the types who vote in primaries.


Now, Coleman has no plans to retire, so this will be a Coleman v. Franken race. All in all, I guess I like his odds in that one. Minnesotans have already proven that they'll elect people from outside the poltical world to higher office (see Jesse Ventura), and Franken's closeness with the late Senator Paul Wellstone -- if he's smart enough to play that up -- will help pull in some of the activist Democrats that he's lost with his moderate views on the radio show.

So, there you have it. My opinion, for what it's worth.

[NJ Democrats]

43. Coleman and Allard

We have Udall running against Allard and hopefully Al Franken against Coleman. Then Liz Dole, I think Gov. Easly will run against her. BTW, Just like in '02, 04, 05, and 06 NJ WILL NOT go the to Repuyblicans no matter who runs for us (Lautenburg, Holt or Andrews)

[NewJeffCT]

45. Much better summary than mine on Daily Kos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/9/141055/253

Sounds like we have 3-4 good pick-up opportunities. Having a 53-54 Dems in the Senate, + Bernie Sanders, means we can kick Lieberman out.

[williesgirl]

46. Mark Warner to replace John Warner in VA - time is ripe if he retires!