Iowa State Fair 08 Straw Poll

[tulip]

I don't know if this a very good way to poll.......at random but at any rate here are the results in kernals of corn. John and Hillary are tied. No surprise at the Vilsack vote as he belongs to them.

http://whoiapolitics.blogspot.com/2006/08/kernels-kernels-and-more-kernels.html

The dems:

Hillary Clinton 33% (Love her or hate her, Iowans know who she is)
John Edwards 33% (Still popular. And how many ladies told me he's hot?)
Tom Vilsack 13% (At least he did better than the Des Moines Register's Poll)
John Kerry 9% (2004 is a long time ago)
Evan Bayh 3% (One guy called him Birch)
Russ Feingold 2% (Who is he, many asked us)
Joe Biden 2% (1988 is really a long time ago)
Tom Daschle 2% (Will he really run?)
Wesley Clark 1% (The General could be in for a quite a battle)
Mark Warner 1% (The new democrat is a new name to many Iowans)

The repubs:

John McCain 24% (Met many friends at the fair)
Rudy Giuliani 22% (9/11 made him strong among "r's")
Condoleeza Rice 22% (Never been a politician. Many here say she should)
Newt Gingrich 10% (Contract with America still pretty strong)
Mitt Romney 9% ("R" in a "D" state at home; middle of the pack here)
Bill Frist 6% (The doc may need some more patients)
Mike Huckabee 2% (Lost a ton, hasn't found a ton of support)
George Pataki 2% (Stands tall among peers, falls short in poll)
George Allen 1% (Is the Hall of Fame coach more known here?)
Sam Brownback 1% (So much for sharing the midwestern love)

[MuseRider]

1. Ha Ha Sam!

LOL, nothing makes me happier than to see numbers like this for Sam. That should wipe that nasty "I know what is good for you" smirk off his face for a while.

[Radical Activist]

2. Interesting

Its hard to imagine even half of the top 5 Republicans actually getting in the race.

[tulip]

3. Comparing our list to theirs..........

we are way ahead of the game.

[TheFarseer]

29. at first glance BUT

whoever wins, the media will dress him up as the best thing since sliced bread (except maybe for some 'also-ran' like Frist), much like shrub 6 years ago. Also, McCain and I believe Hagel (oddly not in this poll) would be nearly impossible to beat. I don't think you can say that about any of our candidates.

[ruggerson]

30. McCain is old

if we nominate someone with a youthful, Kennedyesque aura (Edwards, Warner), and if they are a skillful politician, they can frame the race as the future vs. the past. That's really the only way to beat McCain. (Plus, subtly exploiting his anger issues).

Hagel is more of a problem.

[tulip]

36. Americans will pick experience over youthfulness in war times

Most Americans are pissed on Iraq but they want out in a way that leaves Iraq somewhat stable. We don't want to go back. The 08 candidate will need to have the experience to handle Iraq in a way that will get our troops home sooner rather than later. In fact lets hope they are home before 08. I think Dems and Independents alike favor a Murtha or Biden plan, maybe a combination. Clark has a decent plan on Iraq as well. As much as I like Edwards he will get creamed by McCain unless he comes up with a strategy. It's fine to say your vote was wrong on Iraq. I think Kerry, Edwards and Bayh have made that declaration for a while now but what people really want is our troops home and a candidate willing to enforce tough but flexable requirements for the Iraqi government along with a clear strategy. We cannot be there indefinately.

After the war the main issues will be the economy and healthcare. All of the potentials 08er's score well there. National Security, Iraq War and Terrorism will set the candidates apart.

[rep the dems]

7. Where as most of the dems on the list seem like they will run.

I agree though, I have my doubts about Rice, Giuliani, and Gingrich. McCain probably will, and Romney and Allen seem arrogant enough to run no matter how bad their chances.

[Radical Activist]

34. I was surprised at Romney's result.

That's actually pretty good considering the national names he was up against in that poll. But I don't think he has a chance if two moderates with national names like Giuliani and McCain both get into the race.

[Cosmocat]

37. Condi Rice ???

I mean, this highlights how amazingly disconnected these people are from reality ...

This was the lady in charge of national security in 2001, and somehow got a promotion to secretary of state ... Iraq is a flat disaster, Afgansitan slips away more and more each day ... NK giving the world the middle finger, Iran fiving the world the finger ... Israel/Lebanon blew up ... Pretty much the whole planet hates the US, and there are more fires blazing abroad than you can keep count of ...

And, somehow, in these freaks minds, this lady is someone they view as a presidential candidate ...

[Bandit]

4. No Al Gore?????

I know he says he isn't going to run but I think the people are going to demand him to..

[tulip]

6. They only listed 10 but had 20

Don't know if Gore was even on the list. Not sure he's running but lots of folks still love the guy.

[politicasista]

5. It's too early n/t

[LincolnMcGrath]

8. Given her name recognition, 30 million+ war chest, 6 yrs of "She's

running/or the front runner" etc, aren't these numbers kinda low? :shrug:

[tulip]

9. the word in iowa is EDWARDS

Edwards is the man right now.........Hillary may still pull it off. Heck any of them could still pull it off. But the word I hear from Iowa is EDWARDS.

[LincolnMcGrath]

10. Evan Bahy has been spending time and money here in Iowa as well

[tulip]

12. Bayh is well liked there but more so in NH

He's definately moving up in recognition in Iowa.

[wisteria]

13. It is no wonder they remember him he has been there more than the others.

I wouldn't read to much into these polls now, waite until they start really campaigning and showing everyone what they really offer. Some may have more charm than others, but that only gets you so far, our candidate is going to have to really know his stuff.

[tulip]

15. you're right

This was just a fun poll done at the fair. It can all change in a few months. I think we will see things change after they all declare. Which should happen in late November or early December.

[politicasista]

18. I agree n/t

[ruggerson]

11. Edwards is going to win Iowa

and do well in NH. He will also likely pick up NV and SC the same weeks.

Although he is not my top choice, I'm happy with him, as I think he will be able to frame the race as the "future" vs. the "past" (especially if their candidate is McCain.

If I had to lay money down today, I'd say our ticket is going to be Edwards/Warner.

[wisteria]

14. it is not over till it is over. n/t

[ruggerson]

16. profound n/t

[politicasista]

17. A lot is going to depend on what happens in November

After that we have to hope that each canidiate gets a unified Dem party to back them up and realized that the GOP controls and owns the press, broadcast media and voting machines, something we are trying to do now than predict who the ticket is going to be.


They are going to smear any dem and we need to not overlook that regardless of where the candidates are from.

[Rowdyboy]

19. Edwards paired with Warner, Clark, Richardson, Bayh or even Clinton

would be tough to beat.

I'm a long time Clark supporter but I believe Edwards has the inside track to 2008.

[tulip]

24. Absolutely

I think an Edwards/Bayh or Bayh/Edwards ticket may be a good sell. They are a good compliment to each other. A moderate tough on National Security and a liberal advocate for the poor. Then again there are good qualities I appreciate in every Dem candidate. We are really better set for 08 then we were in 04. I was an early Clark supporter and still like the guy. I'm glad he's going to be part of the 08 dem candidate list.

[Ninja Jordan]

21. The proposed primary changes help Edwards

The key is winning the first one: Iowa. Winning Iowa will propel him to a 2nd or better finish in NV, then NH is demphasized (which is the toughest primary for Edwards). Then SC's primary happens. It could end up: Iowa (Edwards win), NV (Edwards places 2nd or 1st), NH (Edwards must place at least 2nd or 3rd; if he places 2nd here its sown up), then SC (which Edwards can win), then super tuesday with a load of momentum.

[tulip]

23. Not so sure Edwards can win SC

Edwards is not as well appreciated in the South as some may think. I would be hesitant to suggest SC is a lock for him. SC is is a "red" state. Edwards will have to appeal to moderate Dems who are in the majority there.

[ruggerson]

26. Who could beat him?

Certainly not Hillary or Russ. His only real competition, as it stands now, would come from Warner.

[tulip]

27. Warner or Bayh

Both are well liked moderates in the South. Maybe Biden.

[ruggerson]

28. That's true

I'd forgotten about Bayh. My best guess is that the whole shooting match will come down to Warner vs Edwards. Bayh just isn't inspiring enough - he will be the 2008 version of Gephardt. Looks good on paper but can't find a pulse.

[ruggerson]

25. I pretty much agree with your scenario

and think that Edwards will have a lot of momentum going into Super Tuesday. NH is the wild card, since if a dark horse emerges from NH, that man/woman will be the serious challenger to Edwards (Warner? Feingold? Schweitzer?).

I'm interested in whom you think is going to take NH and NV. My bet right now is that Edwards is unstoppable in NV.

[wiley]

22. Yeah, Dean was given "the scream". Edwards will probably respond to

the question of what type of underwear he has on and he'll smile that devilish smile and say, "Who says I'm not wearing a thong?"as a joke, and it will be in the media for six months. And, it looks like this "poll" has President Hillary Clinton ready to step up to the plate. Now who was in the lead 18 months before Iowa 2004 took place. Think hard.

[tulip]

35. John was in the John

I like Edwards well enough and it appears Iowa does too. Edwards does not fit the Foreign Relations experience I would like in a 08 candidate. Bayh, Biden & Clinton better fit that niche. If Edwards pulls this off he will have to pick a running mate with a great deal of Foreign Relations skills. It's his weakest selling point. He will get creamed against McCain on that issue.

http://desmoinesregister.com/extras/politics/index.html

Sen. Daryl Beall (D-Fort Dodge)
During the introduction, Beall told Edwards that "you were my second choice" during the 2004 Iowa caucuses.

Edwards started to walk out, and the crowd laughed.

Beall, perhaps thinking that he was going to have to vamp for another half-hour, quickly reminded Edwards that he was his first choice now, and Edwards returned.

[wiley]

39. Funny. I just saw Edwards with Lamont. Edwards was somewhat sedate

and used the word um a lot. Slow and simple talking people are exactly what this country wants right now, but are they necessarily better leaders? Edwards is not "battle tested" at this point, and this country really needs someone who is. Anyone you mention would make a decent VP for a President Clark.

[union_maid]

20. Glad to see Edwards still up there

I like Edwards and I like Clark. Truthfully, I don't think anyone would make a better president in these times than Clark, though. Why do you think he doesn't get much traction with voters?

[Jai4WKC08]

31. Clark is largely unknown in Iowa

He has very little name recognition there (which is mostly what this poll is about). And of those who have heard of him, most don't know much more than that he by-passed Iowa in '04.

If Clark decides to run, he'll make his mea culpas to Iowa and end up doing very well, imo. Better than Edwards, I think, whose support is very soft--most of it, "well, he's not Hillary and he's not Kerry, and who are all those other guys anyway?"

[Cosmocat]

38. Yeah ...

Obviously the general has A LOT of ground to make up ...

I don't know about Edwards support being "soft" ... He and Bayh have some regional appeal, and have really targeted Iowa ... As noted, the way it is set up now, Iowa is basically the whole ball of wax ...

[timontheleft]

32. Question about Edwards . . .

He has had one term as a US Senator. That's the only public office he's held. Up against someone like McCain there could be a real problem overcoming an "inexperienced" label. But, sometimes that works to the candidtates favor.

So, the question is - Is his short resume (as far as holding office is concerned) a plus or a minus?

[ruggerson]

33. see post #30

n/t

[tulip]

42. depends

He may not have a track record of government experience but he does have a track record of being a decent man. Just don't know if that will transcend in 08........especially against say McCain.

[Vidar]

40. Depressing.

[Redneck Socialist]

41. How so? n/t