"Even divided, Democrats have advantage experts say"....

[snowbear]

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/14904300.htm

~~~~~~

edit: Ah ratz.. Hopefully you won't have to register to read that. The first time I pulled it up I was able to read it.. When I looked at it a second time, I got the stinkin' registration screen.

Good article though!

[Trajan]

1. I think most of us prefer threads that contain some of the story ...

Even divided, Democrats have advantage, experts say

BY DEIRDRE SHESGREEN
St. Louis Post-Dispatch

WASHINGTON - After two weeks of politically-charged debate on the Iraq war, Democrats emerged divided and in disarray.

But pollsters and political experts said the debates did little to alter the fundamental threat to GOP election prospects come November: Voters are still unhappy about the conflict, and they blame the Republican president and the Republican-controlled Congress.

And those two issues - the war and George W. Bush - promise to be defining issues in this fall's campaign, even though the president is not on the ballot.

"It's the elephant in the living room," independent pollster John Zogby said of the war. Candidates can talk about a bevy of popular middle-class issues all they want, but voters will want to hear about Iraq, he said.

It almost doesn't matter what Democrats say on the subject, another pollster said, because the issue is already such a negative for Republicans.

-snip-

See ? .. wasnt that easy ?

Honestly .. I hate opening other websites just to see what the story is about .... I usually dont even bother ...

Why ? .... because it can lock up my machine ...

[Skittles]

2. they had the advantage last election too

but that didn't help us, did it?

[Awsi Dooger]

6. That may have been the conventional wisdom

That we had the advantage in '04. I'm not sure it was true, in fact the opposite. An incumbent president with his party in power only one term. Now 9 re-elections in 10 tries since 1900. Plus you still had 9/11 impacting party ID specifically the voting tendencies of white women.

This time we definitely have the edge, by any measure. A second term midterm, especially for a Republican president, is historically a disaster for his party. The generic congressional polls and approval ratings are tilting distinctly our way. In gov races it should be dramatic pickups. Only the senate playing field, trying to oust too many incumbents in red states, and House redistricting, could make the gains significant but not overwhelming.

[Cosmocat]

8. I would not say ...

that the Ds have the "advantage" ...

But, as noted the Rs do NOT have the advantage they had in 2004 ... People were still willing to be bent over by 9-11 ... They still could scare the beejesus out of the sheep with the "them terrorists will kill us all if the Ds are elected" ... AND, the Iraq occupation was only a year and a half in ... It looked like they are losing the grip on it, no doubt, but it still was a reasonable compelling "arguement" to not want to change power at that point, to give them a shot to get it right ...

They do NOT have any of that ... They have CLEARLY showed they have screwed Iraq up royal, and people are starting to wear thin on the whole they are doing to die from them there terrorists thing ... That card is near burnt out, this guys having applied it to EVERYTHING ...

Now, if there is some sort of terrorist act in the month or two prior ... MAYBE that paralyszes the sheep again, but even that is risky ... If it would not come just prior to the election, after the initial shock, people are going to really say to themselves, if it happens, we have been bent over backwards for 5 freakin years now, all in the sake of these clowns keeping us safe, and they can't even do that ...

Add in that the Rs domestic tax and hope for the best agenda has been exposed ... They have only one thing ... Immigration ...

I think that is a real thorn in the Ds side the closer to the Mexican border you get ... Frankly, for all the analyzing of it, that was the difference in the Cali 50 election ... If that district had been 200 miles north, it would have been a complete toss up ... Had it been in Oregon, that D would have won ...

Also, agree ... The redistricting makes it VERY tough ... Historically 17 seats would not be a major hurdle, but today ... AND, with the Rs VERY capable of controlling the election process from registration to actual vote counting, and knowing how to do so strategically ...

I had lowered my expectations ... Especially in the House ... I don't think it even if 50/5o that they get control of the house ...

[Buns_of_Fire]

3. I got to it okay...

...some of my favorite juicy tidbits:

WASHINGTON - After two weeks of politically-charged debate on the Iraq war, Democrats emerged divided and in disarray.

But pollsters and political experts said the debates did little to alter the fundamental threat to GOP election prospects come November: Voters are still unhappy about the conflict, and they blame the Republican president and the Republican-controlled Congress.

<snip>

It almost doesn't matter what Democrats say on the subject, another pollster said, because the issue is already such a negative for Republicans.

<snip>

The Democrats "can be as divided as they want," Ali added. "Any other year, most voters would say `I don't know where they stand. I'll go with the devil I know.' The problem now is they can't stand the devil they know." (bold mine)

...hopefully, from their polls to God's ear...

[guidod]

4. Great link larissa, thanks!

:hi:

[rpannier]

5. ever notice how the Dems are always described as 'divided and in disarray'

but the pukes are always described as unified????

[blue cat]

7. Saw Dems described that way

today on Fox, when I had to watch because I was at my sister's home.

[treestar]

9. Notice the implication too that success in electoral politics

somehow involves being in lock-step.

Like thinking is bad for winning.