AP: Ex-Wis. Governor Won't Run for Senate

[Eugene]

Ex-Wis. Governor Won't Run for Senate


Tuesday June 20, 2006 5:46 AM

By FREDERIC J. FROMMER

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson said Monday he will
not run for U.S. Senate this year, leaving Republicans with no clear major challenger
to Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl.

"Governor Thompson will not run for the United States Senate in 2006," Thompson's
office said in a statement Monday. "He is enjoying his work in the private sector
and decided against a return to public office at this time."

<snip>

Full article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-5898419,00.html

[skipos]

1. Translates to "I don't want to board the sinking ship at this time?!?" nt

[snowbear]

3. Good!

[TheVirginian]

4. Not likely.

Thompson was easily beating Kohl in the polls not even as an announced candidate. If Thompson ran, he'd be the next Senator from Wisconsin, no doubt about it.

[mcctatas]

5. Actually...

The big speculation was that he would run for gov., and he was beating Doyle in the polls, but depending on which poll you read they were either nearly tied, thompson ahead (46% to 42%, or Kohl ahead 48% to 44%)...I'd say within the margin of error, so a complete nail biter would ensue...

[TheVirginian]

6. There was heavy speculation for both.

And Thompson was within the margin of error, or ahead if you read the Strategic Vision polls, without even being an announced candidate. As soon as he announces, there's a five-point bump. As soon as he starts campaigning, there's another five-point bump. The Thompson family is one of the most well-known families in Wisconsin, thanks in no small part to the 14 years Thompson served as Governor. Kohl might have made it close, but Thompson would've defeated him pretty easily.

[mcctatas]

7. Well...

polls aside (and there have been many), as a longtime WI resident, the Kohl family is probably as well known if not more so. The campaign would have been long and bitter and there are plenty of things that Thompson screwed up when he was the gov. that people would have been reminded of...he was in no way a shoe in.

[leesa]

11. Thompson damned near destroyewd Wisconsin and they would be stupid

enough to put him back in??

[Hippo_Tron]

8. Agreed, Thompson was a huge potential threat to Kohl a year ago

But with Bush's horrid approval ratings, I'd say that the odds would be in favor of Kohl. It would still be a close one, but Kohl would likely pull it off.

[TheVirginian]

9. I doubt that.

Thompson was polling above Kohl as late as last week, not even as an announced candidate and without any campaigning.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. Do you have a link to that poll?

And almost any perliminary poll before any actual race has begun is based largely on the fact that Thomposon is more popular in Wisconsin than Kohl is. That said, that's local politics and right now it looks like 2006 will be about national issues. Kohl would be able to tie Thompson to the failures of the Bush administration and his favorability would drop.

This is much the same situation as if Warner had run against Allen. Warner would've started out polling better, but Allen would've quickly narrowed the race as incumbents usually do. By election day it would've been in the margin of error but 2006 will be a democratic year and dem turnout probably would've put Warner over the top. Likewise, dem turnout and lack of GOP turnout would've probably put Kohl over the top.

The one potential race where this would probably not have held true is North Dakota if Hoeven had run against Conrad. North Dakota is red enough that Dem turnout on election day can't be counted on. Had that match actually happened I would've tipped the odds slightly in Hoeven's favor, keeping in mind that Conrad also has nearly 70% approval ratings.

[mcctatas]

2. I'm almost disappointed,...

On of our local radio stations always used to play this sound bite of Tommy all tanked up and slurring his words welcoming people to a Packer game...plus he is a notorious sot, so I'm sure there are other clips that some enterprising dem could turn into a really great ad for Kohl:evilgrin:

[saltpoint]

10. I consider Thompson to be almost subhuman. It's torturous listening

to him try to speak.

I think he would lose a debate on points and style to a plough horse.

Plus, plough horses are useful. You can get them to pull shitwagons through the dirt.