Bush's low approval won't lose Congress for the GOP -- other numbers will

[Bob Geiger]

Let's face it, seeing yet another national poll showing George W. Bush with a low-thirties approval rating is about as exciting as watching Dick Cheney snooze through an important White House briefing. In the Washington Post-ABC News Poll released yesterday, Bush's approval rating clocked in at a dismal 33 percent -- but that's not the real story any longer and not what will prove as vital when it comes to the midterm elections in November.

To see what's really going to help Democrats take back the House of Representatives and, if the planets line up just right, the Senate as well, here's three numbers that spell doom to Republican candidates if Democrats play their cards right.

1. When asked if the country is going in the "right direction" or is on the "wrong track," almost 70 percent of Americans now believe we're on a fast train to nowhere. That's a huge number for this question and, according to most polls, this has held in the 60s for almost a year. Here's the Washington Post-ABC News trend:


2. You don't have to be a political scientist to know that the Iraq war dominates the national consciousness and it's incredible to look at how sentiment has shifted when Americans are asked if they believe the war was worth fighting or not. Back when the war started, the public overwhelming thought we had a noble cause, with 70 percent saying it was righteous for us to have invaded Iraq.

Take a look at the trend, culminating with the most recent number, showing that 62 percent of Americans do not believe there's any reason for us to be there.

In a country where every other vehicle still seems to sport a "support the troops" sticker, that 62 percent is an astounding number and one that should prove significant in November.

3. Perhaps nothing cuts to the heart of how Americans will choose the makeup of the 110th Congress more than this table, which shows results when respondents are asked which political party "do you trust to do a better job handling" specific elements of the national agenda.



And I think that last one says it all. So, yes, we all know America has finally realized that George W. Bush is a horrible president -- but let's not forget health care, OK?

You can reach Bob Geiger at [email protected] and read more from him at Democrats.com.

[AX10]

1. K&R

[Journeyman]

2. K&R. . .

n/t

[Karmageddon]

3. Problem is, GOP still owns Diebold, ES&S, and Sequoia

Like Stalin said, "It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes."

Hopefully this time it will be so overwhelming that they won't be able to steal it, but all they have to do is hang on to control of Congress, even if they lose a bunch of seats. They've had 2 elections to practice, they'll do everything they can to steal this one too.

I DO like those numbers though.

[Kolesar]

8. That means that activist Democrats have to register voters, call the ...

... voting lists, canvas, organize, donate, write letters to the editor. You know...work!

[Karmageddon]

11. Yes we will. Just like we did last time, but we'll need more of us!

[speedoo]

4. K&R

[daydreamer]

5. Congress

That's no surprise there. Most people vote their congressmen based on their ability to bring federal $ into their backyards. Not much else is important. They will vote for the most "liberal" (in the traditional sense of "spending") congressmen regardless of their party affiliation.

[phiddle]

6. Agreed, but let's do a few other things, as well:

1. Hang George W. Bush around the neck of every Republican Rep and Senator by advertising how many times he/she has voted with the Bush administration. Use this to discredit the entire neocon agenda.
2. Take a page from Karl Rove's playbook and attack where they are relatively or traditionally strong. This means the war on terrorism---stressing how we would do it differently, by protecting ports and infrastucture, rather than tap phone calls. Also, fiscal sobriety---the deficits, being left to subsequent generations to pay amount to an "every child left behind" policy.
3. Remind the voters of Democratic and/or bipartisan initiatives which haave worked and which are currently imperiled: Medicare, the Natl Parks System, Environmental cleanup, etc.
3. There are a few new fronts which we can open---tax fairness, campaign reform, and personal privacy issues. On taxes, there are going to be taxes, but the issue is who pays and how much. We need to be on record as wanting to shift the tax burden upward (see the Wyden bill). With personal privacy, we have a chance to take a big swath of the libertarian types---get government out of reproductive decisions, your phone calls, and right to die issues.

These poll numbers are just an opportunity---we need to press strongly so as to capitalize on and extend our margin.

[ronnykmarshall]

7. The number about the war are staggering.

It's a complete reverse in 3 years.

[w4rma]

9. The key is to move that neither column over to the Democratic column (nt)

[welshTerrier2]

10. a few more stats from the same poll

10. Will one reason for your vote for Congress be to express (support for Bush), to express (opposition to Bush), or is Bush not a factor in your choice?

....................Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
5/15/06 ........12 .......30 ............58 ..............1

16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing their job?

5/15/06 - Summary Table
.............................................Approve Disapprove No opinion
a. the Republicans in Congress ....33 ............64 ............3
b. the Democrats in Congress ......39 ............58 ............4

[pac_505]

12. Only we will change congress

While we may not be able to elect a new President this year, we can secure a new congress. This year the nation's political tide will be affected by local congressional races. It is crucial for as all to support such races in "pivotal" battlegrounds. This year, one such state is New Mexico.

Please do what you can to support local races this year. If you have the time, visit www.pac505.com to learn about the New Mexico race.