Swift-Boating Works -- Santorum Now Within Striking Distance

[AtomicKitten]

Poll finds Casey's lead falling

By CATHERINE LUCEY

U.S. SEN. Rick Santorum has slashed Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr.'s once- double-digit lead and is now just 6 percentage points back, according to the latest Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll. "Everybody expected this race to tighten. Nobody expected it to tighten this quickly," said G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall College and director of the poll.

The survey of 578 registered voters conducted last week showed state treasurer Casey, who is expected to easily win the Democratic primary, as the choice of 47 percent to 41 percent for Santorum. The margin of error for the poll was 4.1 percent. In November, Casey led the Republican incumbent by 51 percent to 35 percent.

Negative television ads by pro-Santorum special-interest groups and attacks from his primary opponents have hurt Casey, Madonna said. Voters have grown more negative towards Casey, Madonna said, noting that his "unfavorable" ratings have increased to 13 percent, up from 8 percent in February.

"You know Sandals and Pennacchio are beating him up pretty badly," he said. "I think that's taking its toll on Casey in the Southeast."


************************

Other findings from the poll:

Gov. Rendell has pulled far ahead of Republican opponent Lynn Swann, and is now leading the former NFL star and broadcaster by 14 percentage points.

"I think that's largely because of the commercials he's been running around the state," said Madonna. "I think that's been the principal reason. The second reason is Rendell himself has been energetically running around the state." Rendell has been running TV ads across the state that have gone unanswered.


more at http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/14495983.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

[LynneSin]

1. I'm not too worried just yet about the numbers and here's why

Casey ISN'T the democratic nominee yet - in fact they haven't had the primaries. So why is god's name would Casey waste all this money campaigning against Santorum when he still have a primary to win? If anything, I think this manuever is just wasted money by Team Santorum. Sure, I've seen the ads - I'm in the Philly metro reason. But for Casey to start campaigning against Santurum right now is just dumb when he still has this competitive race. And I've read where Santorum isn't getting the donations like previous races.

So as far as I'm concern I hope Santorum runs more ads like this - Pennsylvania is an expensive state and he'll blow his load before democrats even pick their candidate. And if their candidate happens to be Casey, well the man has a massive war chest and can easily fight back against Tricky Rick

[AtomicKitten]

2. I understand strategy, however, I am concerned.

It's rolling the dice leaving some of this crap unanswered. And some of it appears to be coming from Casey's opponents in the primary.

It just makes me nervous.

[LynneSin]

21. Again - this is not a time to worry

It's may, you do know that the general election is in November and that is when those ads will no longer be unanwered. It's foolish and a finanically poor movement to spend the money now.

[INdemo]

3. Accurate Poll ?

I really doubt the accuracy of this poll.......especially with 578 voters polled..According to Zogby and others , in order for any poll to show any validity it must have at least 1000 to 1500 participants

[Alcibiades]

14. It depends

the margin of error on a poll with this sample size is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, which means that 95% of the time the actual value will be within that eight percentage point range centered on the point prediction.

What "Zogby and others" are apparently concerned about is that, much of the time, this isn't telling you much at all, especially in national elections (for example) that are usually close enough that +/- 4 really isn't good enough. A sample size of 1,000 will give you +/- 3 and a sample size of 1,500 will give you +/- 2.5 (95% of the time. Polls in this range are more reliable, especially if you can track the results of multiple polls taken by different pollsters.

Of course, we should also remember that our 95% level of confidence means that 5% of the time, 1 time in 20, our numbers will be outside that range (i.e. way off the mark). Thus, the accuracy of any given poll is always in question, using any reasonable sample size. Poll results cannot be definitive--we do polls rather than actual censuses of the population in question because it's so much cheaper. To get to +/- 1%, you need about 8,000 respondents.

Still, it's expensive to get that many respondents, which is why you never see a 1% margin of error. In an ideal world, we would not have to rely on results with just 578 voters, but in a state race, there may be no one interested in paying the extra money to survey 1,500 people. The question therefore becomes somewhat subjective--is +/- 4% good enough in this race? Clearly, in national elections, the money should be there to develop bigger samples, but in this case, I'd say it's good enough, and typical of polls taken at the state level.

P.S. it is the accuracy that's in question here, not the validity. Validity has a quite specific meaning in statistics.

[still_one]

4. if casey cannot beat santorum after everything that has gone down

about santorum, then casey isn't getting his message out for one reason or another, which has been the problem Democrats have been having since 2000

[GoneOffShore]

25. Casey's getting his message out

But it doesn't resonate with me.
He's 'Old Guard' Pennsylvania politics and trying the 'Republican Lite' strategy. He's been pushed down our throats by the party despite some grassroots dissatisfaction with him.

In the primary I'll be voting for Pennachio or Sandals - Both these guys are further away from Sanctorum than Casey.

If he wins the primary I'll support him. Until then, he's not my choice.

[Coastie for Truth]

5. Well - I guess I have to move back to my birth home

to vote in this election.

Ruffled Grouse and Mountain Laurel and all of that good stuff.

[dajoki]

13. Come back...

We need you!!
P.S. Bring busloads!!

[WinkyDink]

6. PA. pundits like to jaw, and newspapers like to quote them.

Casey and Rendell = In like Flynn.

If I were Santorum's dog, I'd be worried!

[Robbien]

7. The same thing is happening in Michigan. Dick DeVos (Amway)

is doing the same thing to Granholm. He is now leading in the polls.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_joel_wen_060504_dick_devos_3a_top_ten_.htm

[jbnow]

17. DeVos

barely mentions Granholm in his ads though. He is spending a lot for ad after ad about JOBS, JOBS, JOBS as Michigan continues to lose them. (Due to policies that DeVos supports)
They are effective ads and it scares me because I know how bad he would be for people and there would be no balance here. Engler privatized whatever he could and most of that went very bad, I think DeVos would be much worse than Engler.
I know we are talking the wrong state for this thread but I hope Granholm has a very effective strategy.

[bobbieinok]

18. DeVos is a MAJOR dominionist ......see articles at

http://www.talk2action.org

[jbnow]

20. I know

and that's scares me more. That's why the impression his ads are making and the polls make me very nervous.
They make him sound like he'll solve our job problems. He's not even good at that, not to mention how bad he is in all the other ways.
I hope Granholm has a good plan and a lot of campaign funds, that's all I can say. I know they met at Cobo Center recently but DeVos is running all over the state, has all those ads.

[skipos]

8. Wow, we are "only" beating the incumbent by 6% nt

[AtomicKitten]

10. we need to factor in margin of error and EVM fraud

[msongs]

9. negative ad campaigns work, that's why people use them

negative ads sink in much better than positive ones. The population claims to dislike negative ads.
I watched commercial tv once during the california elections last year (arnold and the propositions) and the barrage
of ads was disgusting. once was enuff.

Msongs
www.msongs.com
batik & digital art
mugs and shirts

[wisteria]

11. It is one poll, with a large margin of error.

That said, I know I will get bashed for this, but the other two candidates on the Dem side do not have a chance and for the good of the party this one election, they should bow out. They are only pushing people towards Santorum.

[AtomicKitten]

12. You have a valid point, and that's the dilemma we face.

It is clear the negative ads from his opponents in the primary are affecting him which are reasonable under the circumstances, but that in conjunction with the shit flying from the Santorum camp is painting a pretty negative picture, one that I'm afraid Casey must counter now or soon.

It's a real Catch-22. Practice democracy by having a wide-open primary, but that is causing the candidates to spend a wad just to get the nod, and then they're up against the GOP machine and endless funds in the general election.

Kinda sucks.

[cantstandbush]

15. Anybody but me believe the immigration issue will win for Rethugs?

Dems had a fighting chance until the immigration thing busted loose. It's almost like Rove planned it and the Dems fell for it again. It only takes one hot-button issue to energize the Rethug base and illegal immigration is it.

[AtomicKitten]

16. of course Rove planned it

but it's proving to be a stinker for them. The GOP is split right down the middle on the issue. There's a saying about getting out of the way when someone is imploding.

The Dems approach is REASONABLE.

[Doctor_J]

23. We're split down the middle too

look around on DU and see all the posts that are on Rove's side of the immigration issue. Once again, they have found a wedge and are pounding away at it.

[snowbear]

19. If the ads are working... why isn't Casey cranking them out?

There has to be a LOT more negative material to broadcast against Santorum than Casey any day of the week.

Casey needs to "kick it up a notch" and flush Santorum out.

[globalvillage]

22. He has a DVD mailer campaign

right now. I think this is new, I saw it for the first time Friday night.
Not sure if buying ads right now is a good use of campaign money. With six months to go, I think the DVD is a good idea if it's widely distributed.

[rhett o rick]

24. Demo's need a strategy to fight "swift boating". nm