If Kerry Wins 5 States Tomorrow, Is It OVER? Could he Blow Such A Lead?

[Sensitivity]

All the media seem to say that Kerry is going to win everything except S.C where Edward is the home boy and OK where Clark looks good.

After that no one will be able to say "he just got 2 states."

Is there anyway he could loose his momentum? I am thinking about the
meetup on Wednesday. What can we honestly say?

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. if he wins all 7

It's over. Flat out. Book it.

If he wins 5 of 7, there's a 90% chance it's over.

If, somehow, he takes less than 4 then I think you'll be hearing the media say that Kerry has lost his stride. Just a hunch.

But it depends on whether he wins 5 or more states.

[TexasPatriot]

7. 5 is tough

depends on 2nds in places... i dont think it's a 90% though... 6 is probably more like 90%. 5 is maybe 67-75%.

Dean's skip to the 17th strategy really gums this sort of thing up... because Kerry winning 5 is probably the best outcome Dean can hope for.

Of course, if he loses 2 states to Clark by less than 2 or 3 points the media will announce he 'tied for first', and not mention Clark's name.

[kentuck]

20. I agree with your odds...

Then for every primary after that, his odds will drop if he loses a primary...

[Snivi Yllom]

30. Clark and Edwards will both get HUGE media coverage

if they win just one state each.

[mikehiggins]

32. Edwards might. If Clark wins OK the headlines will be Kerry closing in n/t

[Leilani]

33. I wouldn't count on it

Edwards will get coverage...Clark will be a footnote.

[krkaufman]

14. Thanks for that authoritative answer

90% chance? chuckle. Get that from Zogby?

[THUNDER HANDS]

18. no, that was the Magic Rat Polling Firm

:D

[Hippo_Tron]

36. By all means I hope not...

John Kerry's my first choice but we need to keep Howard Dean, John Edwards, and General Clark in this race as well. The more people on the debate stage means the more tough questions that our frontrunner will have to answer and the more accountable he will be held.

[mopinko]

2. unless he somehow

gets all the delegates he needs to lock the nomination, an arithmetic impossibility, we will fight on.
the only possible scenario that could make me even blink is if dean got zero delegates.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. is he polling above 15% in any state?

just curious?

[ScreamingMeemie]

3. It is not over until a nominee is picked at the convention. Super

Tuesday has yet to arrive...and those states that don't vote until June deserve their say too. Let's not buy into the media's need to rush this. Let's take a stand for our party.

[beyurslf]

10. We are taking a stand.

The earlier our nominee is chosen, the better. Let's concentrate on Bush instead of each other.

[krkaufman]

17. I *am* concentrating on Bush

> Let's concentrate on Bush instead of each other.

I'm *already* concentrating on Bush. I think Kerry is *extremely* vulnerable against Bush, and so I want this the process to continue until we get the best candidate possible nominated. (i.e. Wes Clark)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

15. It ain't the media....

It's the truth. If Kerry takes 6 out of 7 states tomorrow, where do you think all future campaign donations will go? I'll give you a hint: it won't be to Dean.

People start rallying around the winner. That's the way it works.

[krkaufman]

21. But it *IS* the media

But it *IS* the media. They're framing Kerry as the frontrunner, even though Dean still has the most delegates, at present. Yes, Kerry has the current momentum, but, in the end, it's about the delegates.

The media frames each state as having a "Winner" and "Losers" -- as opposed to accurately reporting the marginal delegate gains of each candidate exceeding the state's viability threshold.

[ScreamingMeemie]

31. Oh, but it is...Since when is this Democracy? Anyone who wants the

chance should be given the chance. I will vote for whoever and will cheer heartily when they beat Bush, but this race is far from over. I refuse to fall in line with the media. I want to see it through. :hi:

[Renew Deal]

4. If he wins 6, he's almost a lock.

7 and it's over.

[hackwriter]

6. Anything is possible until he has the required number of delegates

I expect that Kerry WILL get a near-clean sweep tomorrow -- all except possibly Arizona.

But the mud is starting already....the aspersions cast upon his honesty because of the Botox; the Johnny Chung meeting that the Repugs will turn into the equivalent of Gore's Buddhist Temple....his remark that it was "vetted" being compared to "no controlling legal authority."

All this will cause a delayed effect upon his perception of "electability". The whole concept of "electability" is a joke anyway. How is someone "electable"? I wish the media would stop beating the "electability" drum and let the VOTERS decide who's electable via their votes.

The whole concept of "electability" is predicated on intellectual laziness -- an inability to frame an argument on issues, choosing instead to take loose traits as constituting "electability".

Disclaimer: I'm a Dean supporter, but R. Neel is right: Can you say it's "over" when neither New York nor New Jersey nor Texas nor California not Illinois nor Massachusetts has weighed in yet?

[Norquist Nemesis]

8. I still lean Dean

But whoever makes it in the end, I'll vote for him.

NOTE: This is not intended to be a Kerry bash... I still just don't get the "electability" of Kerry. In watching him on CSpan, debates, etc., he plays the exact dirty politics that people say they find distasteful. His voting record is inconsistent for one thing. I don't see charisma or enthusiasm. BushCo is going to rip him to shreds.

But he kinda looks like Abe Lincoln. LOL

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. If Clark wins OK, and Edwards wins SC

then it is not totally over. But it gets harder and harder to make the case for a different nominee than Kerry.

[mikehiggins]

28. It all depends on the delegates

Even if Kerry takes all seven contests tomorrow he is not going to wind up with all the delegates.

Okay, he has the "won the first nine" crown which will help his momentum going into the next round but even if the rest of the delegates are split among all six opponents, Kerry will most likely not be able to get the number needed by the end of the voting.

Thank you, proportional voting.

Traditionally, money and support would dry up right away after something like that. This time it looks like Clark and Dean are raising more money and faster than ever. Furthermore, most of their supporters are hanging in, if only because there's nowhere else to go except home.

So, what's up? I think after tomorrow we'll see Jo-mentum wave goodbye like the story it getting reported. Edwards is a maybe-yes, maybe-no. Dennis and Al will continue soldiering on to the bitter end.

Unless some really good deal is made, however, Dean and Clark have nothing to lose by fighting on up until Kerry does get the needed votes to win OR the gavel comes down to open the convention.

Then, who knows?

But tomorrow will not end it, even if Kerry gets all seven.

This one will be going well into extra innings, when compared to the others.

[dolstein]

11. Yeah, pretty much

If Clark wins Oklahoma and Edwards wins South Carolina, both will stick around for the Virginia and Tennessee primaries later this month. And Dean plans to stick around for the Washington and Wisconsin primaries. But as a practical matter, it's going to be hard for anyone to beat Kerry. He gets more media coverage than all the other candidates combined. And the more free media he gets, the higher he moves in the polls. And the higher he moves in the polls, the more campaign contributions he gets. And the more endorsements he gets. And so on.

The only thing that can bring Kerry down at this point is if he does something incredibly stupid or if a lot of negative stories surface in the press. I'm afraid that even if that happens, there may not be any other candiate left who can take advantage of the situation.

[tameszu]

12. It's a very big "IF"

New Mexico is big tossup. Arizona is still within Clark's reach, and I don't think anyone really knows what's going on in ND.

Right now the only hammerlocks Kerry has are MO and DE. SC and OK have a good chance of going to Edwards and Kerry, and any 1, 2 or even all 3 of the other states mentioned above could turn against Kerry--especially since a lot of absentee ballots were taken out from both NM and AZ and returned before Kerry's big boost in IA and NH and when Clark and Dean were flying much higher in the polls. So keep working everyone!

[krkaufman]

13. Not over, yes he could

The misconception is that Kerry winning all 7 states means anything -- other than that the media will declare him the victor. It's not a winner-take-all environment, so placing 2nd gains delegates, as well, and there's a helluva lot more delegates to go.

The only thing that will keep us going down this path is the media's continued Kerry Koronation -- democracy be damned. If all the candidates were getting equal airtime, Kerry wouldn't be doing nearly as well as he is; however, if the media declares Kerry the victor and discontinues any further coverage, then we the people are screwed.

[Monte Carlo]

16. Abso-friggin'-lutely.

I say this as someone who has been a Kerry supporter since before 9/11. Kerry's got things going his way right now, but that is exactly ZERO guarantee of future success.

To abuse an analogy, his ship is ahead and on course right now, but the oceans are unpredictable and violent. His campaign is not entirely of his own choosing.

[WiseMen]

38. The question is WHY NOT JOHN KERRY

[goobergunch]

40. I disagree

There should be reasons to support a candidate.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

46. and there are reasons to not support a candidate

at this point we ask: "Stop Kerry? Why?"

[goobergunch]

47. I will not let two small states dictate my support.

Sorry.

[kentuck]

19. If he loses 2 states, he loses a lot of momentum...

in my opinion. However, he will still be the favorite but it will give people reason to look at other candidates...

[Quixote1818]

22. Loosing SC will raise questions about his appeal in the south

[Sensitivity]

24. Will that stall his campaign enough to give Dean a chance?

[creativelcro]

23. In any case, Dean should stay in until the end.

Force Kerry to show the corporation whore he really is by forcing him to get more and more money to compete...

[jmaier]

25. Nope

It's over when 1) Kerry numerically clinches or 2) the other semi-viable candidates withdraw. If Kerry continues racking up wins with only 35 - 40% of the vote and other candidates draw delegates and stay in the race, this thing continues on. That outcome is a good one in my opinion because it keeps generating media coverage and Democratic excitement.

[TexasPatriot]

26. i tend to agree

because so long as this race continues - everyone gets to hammer the crap out of bush and get that covered in the press...

And having a General and a bunch of Kerry vets all out there pissing on the President makes me all warm inside. Watch faux have to cover it every day makes me giggle.

Every day we beat George up in the news is another day we win.

[Leilani]

34. Right

Our message is getting out, & Chimp's numbers are falling.

[WiseMen]

27. Kerry will have a Commanding Lead after tomorrow. But as Governor

Howard Dean so ably showed, you can loose a commanding lead if you put your mind to it.

[Snivi Yllom]

29. blow a lead?

or be victimized by media attacks.

At the moment the media wants Kerry. That could change.

[WiseMen]

35. Might be time to go to JohnKerry.com and join the fight against Bush

[goobergunch]

41. Kerry is far short of 2,162 delegates

And he will still be after tomorrow.

[Cuban_Liberal]

43. Not even CLOSE to that time, WiseMen.

Sorry, but 'no sale'.

[knight_of_the_star]

37. Things can change

Remember how the polls said that Kerry was dead in the water in the week and days prior to the Iowa vote? Things can change at teh 11th hour in ways that the polls can't predict, although I WILL predict that even if Clark should win AZ and OK, the press will still say "Kerry ties for first with Clark in AZ and OK!"

[Cuban_Liberal]

39. A LOT can change.

This Johnny Chung/special-interest stuff isn't going to go away. Kerry's bleeding.

[goobergunch]

42. He could

If he does less well than expected in Washington, Michigan, and Maine, his momentum will be sapped very quickly.

[David Dunham]

44. after feb. 3, kerry will be on his way; others:say-heh-good-bye

[arewethereyet]

45. sure he could

OK seems up in the air though SC seems likely to be going Edwards' way. Success for Edwards breeds help in the following week.

The wheels are looking a wee bit wobbly on the Kerry wagon so, yes, I do think there is weakness that Edwards could overcome.

Simple ? No. Possible ? Oh yeah.