Cegelis DID NOT have a lock on the 6th CD nomination before Duckworth

[wndycty]

From today's http://thecapitolfaxblog.com:

-snip-
* Just 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in her district knew who Christine Cegelis was. Remember, this is after her high-profile race against Hyde and a strong effort to keep her campaign going in the months since then. Cegelis has burned through a bunch of money in the past year to keep her name out there, but just over a quarter of Democratic primary voters recognized her name in August.

* 48 percent of those same likely Dem primary voters knew who Peter O’Malley was, even though he had never run for office before. O’Malley dropped out of the Democratic primary race a couple of months after the poll was taken (the poll was not conducted by or for O’Malley’s campaign).

* Before he dropped out, the poll showed that O’Malley was leading Cegelis 26-19 (or 22-16 excluding “leaners”) in the primary. Even with that high margin of error, a seven-point lead is still pretty solid - about an 86 percent probability that O’Malley was ahead and the result wasn’t due to sampling error.

* Just 15 percent had a favorable view of Cegelis, while 5 percent had an unfavorable view. That’s bad news for someone who thinks that her last race will propel her to victory in the next contest.
-snip-

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2005/12/20/cegelis-poll/#comments

Say what you want, but Cegelis was trailing in the polls behind someone who eventually dropped out. This is not to attack Cegelis, but to show that Duckworth is not really ruining what many claim to be a viable campaign.

[MrBenchley]

1. Good point....

Thanks.

[...of J.Temperance]

2. I like Tammy Duckworth a lot, from what I've read about her and

I hope she wins the primary, she's a fine candidate and she's also a hero and I think she can win that seat for us.

I don't think Cegelis can win that seat, she lost last time.

[madfloridian]

3. Good skew there in percentage favorable.

Sounds to me like taking a poll over a year ahead of time, in a district in which she got 44% of the vote.....taking it over a year ahead of time...using a name like O'Malley (well-known)when most people are not paying attention is a shame.

* Just 15 percent had a favorable view of Cegelis, while 5 percent had an unfavorable view. That’s bad news for someone who thinks that her last race will propel her to victory in the next contest.
-snip-

Well, that leaves 80% that you don't mention. Did they just not know?
Do they have no opinion? That is not bad over a year ahead of time.

Hey, I have no horse in this race at all. We have enough battles of our own in Florida. I hope the people in that district just understand what happened to them in a very ugly way.

This is not about Duckworth or Cegelis. It is truly about power. It is about the fact that the Clinton type of power will stay. It is a top down power, and neither Bill nor Hillary in spite of the love by the populace....wants any of us having a say. It is power thing, it is a loyalty thing.

There is no one to fight it right now.

If you get everyone out of the race but who you want, then you win. If you get your pick on This Week to announce, chances are you have the power.

You guys have done an excellent job of hurting Cegelis's campaign, all the while making it sound like we were "bashing" Duckworth...bashing a wounded vet...how dare we. It was not true.

But I commend you on a good job.

[MrBenchley]

5. Cegelis hurt her own campaign pissing away her money

"all the while making it sound like we were "bashing" Duckworth...bashing a wounded vet..."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=150&topic_id=10013&mesg_id=10025

[madfloridian]

7. This has been an orchestrated attack on the Cegelis campaign.

The talking points, everything.

You are using the point that no one will dare go after a wounded veteran. I didn't, I wouldn't, and I have not seen any of our Democrats doing it....

But I have two names for you if you think the other side won't attack:
John Kerry and Max Cleland.

You guys are good using skewed polls and talking points, but you don't know to present a good argument.

[MrBenchley]

10. It's facts catching up with bullshit....

"You are using the point that no one will dare go after a wounded veteran.
Yeah? WHO said that, pray tell?

"I didn't, I wouldn't, and I have not seen any of our Democrats doing it...."
Of course, even when furnished with examples, you profess not to see it.

[madfloridian]

4. Another statement you forgot to mention...poll flawed.

"The poll is flawed because of its small sample size and weighting, but until someone shows me better numbers and explains to me why underperforming the top of the ticket last year was no big deal, I can see why the DCCC decided that Christine Cegelis wasn’t the best Democratic candidate for that district."

- posted by Rich Miller 9 Comments

In other words his mind is made up already, and we have to prove stuff to him after he just presented an admittedly "flawed" poll? Is that the DCCC poll? Is that what they used?

What in the world is the argument of "underperforming" Kerry got to do with anything in a local race?

I am so amazed at the things being done against Cegelis, and even more amazed that I got accused of "bashing" Duckworth.

These are Republican tactics, attack with half-truths and partial lies...and then attack some more.

Good luck to that district. I feel for them sincerely.

[ShaneGR]

6. I say we continue to run past losers and ignore fresh new candidates....

I mean, who needs fresh candidates, particularly ones who have sacrificed a lot for their country through military service. Lets keep losing with the same olds! YAY!

[madfloridian]

8. A veiled attack..."past loser"...emphasize military.

That is an attack on Ms Cegelis. She is not a loser, and being military is not the answer to everything. It is Rahm's answer, and it may backfire.

[MrBenchley]

11. Cegelis IS a past loser and a four-star disaster

[madfloridian]

12. Such a shame all the attacks you guys have done on her.

Then lecture us and say we dared criticize a wounded vet. This is getting out of control.

[MrBenchley]

13. Yeah, how dare anyone point out facts

while you're trying to smear Democrats with half-truths and distortions!

[wndycty]

20. Don't you realize there is a certain mindset that. . .

. . .those who have been told "you have the power" embrace? They know what they want and they feel that if they don't get it or better yet when they are challenged that the grassroots loses. They think all grassrooters must think a lot, follow the same leader back the same candidates. When those of us grassrooters don't agree with them, and the candidates they support, we are called DINO's, DLCers, neocons, and so on and so on. Our motives are questioned, we are accused of using talking points (I'm still waiting for someone to tell me where you, I and others are gathering to get our marching orders from "the man").

[MrBenchley]

21. They know what the people want....

and god help the people if they disagree.....

It's the Junior Joe McCarthy Club, drawing up enemies lists and smearing people they don't like. (You might look at the OTHER Duckworth thread, where a lie about Tammy being funded by Republicans is currently hanging in cyberspace.)

[wndycty]

22. Well I'm not surprised. . .

. . .and I'm tired of being told a Duckworth victory is a blow to grassroots, who's grassroots? I acknowledge the hand that Durbin and Emanuel played however that does not mean that Duckworth won't have grassroots support.

[MrBenchley]

23. Meanwhile, if I was a Cegelis supporter

I'd sure as hell be asking myself how she blew three quarters of her warchest in a non-election year with nothing to show for it...

I compared a few non-incumbents running in other states to her, and found that most spent between $3,750 and $7,000 in 2005 and had saved their money for the actual election campaign. Cegelis spent $121,000 in the same period.

[madfloridian]

9. "The poll is flawed because of its small sample size and weighting"

No response to this statement about the poll? Just more attacks?

[wndycty]

14. Here is your answer. . .

"Even with that high margin of error, a seven-point lead is still pretty solid - about an 86 percent probability that O’Malley was ahead and the result wasn’t due to sampling error."

[madfloridian]

18. Not what I was talking about above.

"Just 15 percent had a favorable view of Cegelis, while 5 percent had an unfavorable view. That’s bad news for someone who thinks that her last race will propel her to victory in the next contest.

"The poll is flawed because of its small sample size and weighting, but until someone shows me better numbers and explains to me why underperforming the top of the ticket last year was no big deal, I can see why the DCCC decided that Christine Cegelis wasn’t the best Democratic candidate for that district."

He uses a poll from August he admits is flawed, and uses an argument that makes no sense...she underperformed Kerry.

And per the 1st paragraph: What about the other 80%? If 15% had a positive view, 5% had an unfavorable, what about the other 80%?

[madfloridian]

15. Duckworth has party machinery working for her in the primary.

"Democrats on Capitol Hill, including Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin and Emanuel, appear to think that Duckworth can overcome those hurdles, snag the nomination and give state Sen. Peter Roskam (R), his party’s likely House nominee, a serious race.

One of Durbin’s aides is working for Duckworth. Emanuel spoke with Duckworth on several occasions, presumably to encourage her to run for the seat. And prominent Democratic consultant David Axelrod, whose recent clients include Emanuel, Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), and presidential contender and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), is working for her.

"The consultant added that Duckworth would be getting help from two of Illinois’ leading Democrats. “I think both Durbin and Obama already have indicated that they’re supportive of her candidacy,” he said.

Joan Berman, an assistant to Democratic Committeeman Wilbert Crowley, in the 10th District, said Cegelis has an organization but predicted that, with Emanuel’s help, Duckworth would win the primary.

Berman also said that Democrats, far from being annoyed with Emanuel’s or Durbin’s getting involved in the race, would appreciate any help they can get winning a district that has supported Republicans for years."

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/122005.html

She will most likely win the primary with the party machinery behind her, people usually do. Then they will bray, see we told you...we knew best.

[wndycty]

16. Oh brother. . .

. . .we know already. . .LOL

[madfloridian]

17. But the other day I was told I was lying about it, told to prove it.

:shrug:

[wndycty]

19. Again. . .oh brother. . .

oy vey. . .