National Journal Insiders Poll - 2008 Presidential (Hillary, Allen lead)

[jefferson_dem]

Based on 100 Dem and Rep "insiders" rankings of potential candidates' chances of winning their party's 2008 presidential nomination.

Top line results below. More details at link (pdf) -> http://nationaljournal.com/insiders.pdf

DEMS
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Mark Warner (previous rank 3)
3. John Edwards (previous rank 2)
4. Evan Bayh
5. Tom Vilsack (previous rank 7)
6. Joe Biden (previous rank 8)
7. Bill Richardson (previous rank 6)
8. John Kerry (previous rank 5)
9. Al Gore (previous rank 10)
10. Wesley Clark (previous rank 9)

PUKES
1. George Allen
2. John McCain
3. Mitt Romney (previous rank 5)
4. Rudy Guiliani
5. Bill Frist (previous rank 3)
6. Haley Barbour
7. Condoleezza Rice (previous rank 8)
8. George Pataki (previous rank 10)
9. Newt Gingrich (previous rank 11)
10. Chuck Hagel (previous rank 9)

[electropop]

1. They're all DLCers!

:wtf:

Did they even consider putting any Democrats on the Democrats list?

[nickshepDEM]

29. ...

[AlCzervik]

2. i'm sorry, can you clarify something for me?

is this a poll of who they think will run or who they think has the best chance of getting their parties nomination?

[jefferson_dem]

3. Based on candidates' chances of winning their party's nomination

I've clarified this now. Thanks.

[AlCzervik]

4. EEEEEEEKKKKKKK!!!!! OK now i'm sorry i asked.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. No Russ Feingold?

I know that guy has a base, but it surprises me he's not on that list.

[hedda_foil]

6. It's a party insiders list.

Translation=DLC

[Tiggeroshii]

7. I think the DLC's far bigger than alot of people would like to think

... recently somebody just sorta shrugged aside theidea that the DLC had a strong conservative influence. I suppose it's not "strong" as of yet, but it certainly has an influence.

[OHdem10]

11. Could it be the DLC gets its influence

from the fact they are the most pro-business section of the party.
Therefore the corporate power spills over on them. When people
yell "Librul Media"--they are wrong. Most Journalists who are
not prone to vote Republican are centrists . Centrists Journalists
support DLC. The DLC do not have grassroots organizations. Some wealthy
Dems support DLC. They have to protect their wealth -- Taxcuts. Just
a thought.

[tritsofme]

32. Here are a list of the Dem "insiders"

METHODOLOGY: All 129 National Journal Democratic Insiders were asked to name and rank the top five contenders for their party’s 2008
presidential nomination, and 100 participated. In tallying scores, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote 4 points, and so on.
Six participants ranked fewer than five candidates. In April, when our first 2008 survey was conducted, 90 Democrats participated. Those
results have been weighted so they can be compared to this month’s results.

DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL INSIDERS:Karen Ackerman, David Axelrod, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark
Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bill Carrick, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Monica Dixon,
Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Steve Elmendorf, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Scott Ferson, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Steve
Gleason, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Laura Hartigan, Harold Ickes,
Marcus Jadotte, Steve Jarding, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Celinda Lake, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand,
Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Gerald McEntee, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols,
John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Bruce Reed, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will
Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon,
Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, and JoDee Winterhof.

DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL INSIDERS:Sens. Jon Corzine, Christopher Dodd, James Jeffords (independent), Edward Kennedy, Frank
Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor; Reps. Tom Allen, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick
Boucher, Sherrod Brown, Michael Capuano, Ben Cardin, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Jim Davis,
Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Steve Israel, Jim
Langevin, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsk

[FSogol]

8. LOL George Allen? He's a dumber version of "w".

The majority of the country is sick of w, why would they vote for his double?

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. Allan would be a lot easier to beat than McCain

McCain would have some problems with getting the nomination due to a lot of party activist not liking him. But, I suspect he would be much more difficult to beat.

[jonnyblitz]

10. I would have expected Clark to be much higher on the list.

Apparently he isn't as popular with party insiders as he is with the rank and file.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. That's the message here

Clark is not a part of the old guard. He does not come with a lifetime of connections and deal making that weave him inside the insiders web. He hasn't been part of their scene long enough, and Clark is too independent for them to be sure he will play by all the rules that they already have mastered. There are much safer bets to head the Party from their perspective. Feingold isn't even on their list of ten but Vilsak is. Vilsak is more one of them.

[jonnyblitz]

16. this makes him more appealing IMHO.

:shrug:

[NCarolinawoman]

13. Clark is his own man and a maverick.

Same with Hagel. Can you believe that doofus, Hailey Barbour is ahead of Hagel?!!! This is all an insiders game and has a lot to do with money and deal-making.

[radio4progressives]

15. Bingo! Insider Game is the operative word - and one that I've been

trying to highlight as THE most abhorent nexis of politics - which we need to reject and completely bypass.

[jonnyblitz]

17. yup. what you say makes sense.

I guess popularity with the masses isn't a top priority in their consideration.

[Douglas Carpenter]

14. taking a look at Allen's record -- here it is

courtesy of Vote Smart

"Gender: Male
Family: Wife: Susan Brown
3 Children: Tyler, Forrest, Brooke.
Birth date: 03/08/1952
Birthplace: Whittier, CA
Home City: Mt. Vernon, VA
Religion: Presbyterian

Education:
JD, University of Virginia Law School, 1977
BA, History, University of Virginia, 1974.

Professional Experience:
Partner, McGuire Woods, 1998-present
Private Law Practice, 1978-1991
Law Clerk, Judge Glen Williams, 1977-1978.

Political Experience:
Senator, United States Senate, 2000-present
Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia, 1994-1998
Representative, United States House of Representatives, District 7, 1991-1993
Delegate, Virginia House of Delegates, 1982-1991
Republican Nominee, Virginia House of Delegates, 1979

Here is the voting record based on interest group ratings from vote Smart
Actually I've compared the records of Kerry and Clinton vs Allen and McCain:

This is courtesy of project vote smart - link:

http://www.vote-smart.org/index.htm
_____________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation 67 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation 33 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation 0 percent in 2004.
_________________________________


2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Peace Action 75 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Peace Action 13 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Peace Action 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Peace Action 13 percent in 2004.
______________________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Friends Committee on National Legislation 50 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Friends Committee on National Legislation 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Friends Committee on National Legislation 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Friends Committee on National Legislation 0 percent in 2004.
____________________________________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the National Abortion Reproductive Rights Action League 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the National Abortion Reproductive Rights Action League 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the National Abortion Reproductive Rights Action League 0 percent in 2004

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the National Abortion Reproductive Rights Action League 0 percent in 2004.
__________________

2003-2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 78 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 0 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 22 percent in 2003-2004.
_____________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 95 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 25 percent in 2004.2003 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 85 percent in 2003.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 15 percent in 2004..

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 35 percent in 2004.
__________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 17 percent in 2004..

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 33 percent in 2004.
_________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 110 percent in 2004

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 50 percent in 2004. 2003 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 102 percent in 2003.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 9 percent in 2004

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 9 percent in 2004.
__________________________

2003-2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the National Education Association 85 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the National Education Association 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the National School Boards Association 33 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the National Education Association 35 percent in 2003-2004.
______________________

2003-2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Human Rights Campaign 88 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Human Rights Campaign 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Human Rights Campaign 13 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Human Rights Campaign 25 percent in 2003-2004.
_____________________________________

2003-2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 7 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 14 percent in 2003-2004.
_____________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Arab American Institute 25 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Arab American Institute 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Arab American Institute 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Arab American Institute 0 percent in 2004.
__________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Family Research Council 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Family Research Council 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Family Research Council 67 percent in 2004..

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Family Research Council 67 percent in 2004.
____________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the Christian Coalition 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the Christian Coalition 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the Christian Coalition 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Christian Coalition 83 percent in 2004.
_____________________________

2004 Senator Clinton supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Kerry supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Allen supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 92 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator McCain supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 72 percent in 2004."

[Douglas Carpenter]

18. the latest CNN Gallup Poll of Registered Democrats and Republicans

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm

DEMOCRATS -

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 9-11, 2005. N=446 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh; Delaware Senator Joe Biden; New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton; Former North Carolina senator John Edwards; Massachusetts Senator John Kerry; New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson; Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack; Virginia Governor Mark Warner." Names rotated

Hillary Rodham Clinton 43

John Edwards 14

John Kerry 14

Joe Biden 8

Mark Warner 3

Bill Richardson 3

Evan Bayh 1

Tom Vilsack 1

Someone else 1

None (vol.) 4

All/Any (vol.) 1

Unsure 7"

__________________

REPUBLICANS link:

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08rep.htm

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 9-11, 2005. N=405 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. Virginia Senator George Allen; Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour; Tennessee Senator Bill Frist; Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani; Arizona Senator John McCain; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney." Names rotated

Rudy Giuliani 30

John McCain 22

Condoleezza Rice 18

George Allen 7

Bill Frist 3

Haley Barbour 2

Mitt Romney 2

Someone else 3

None (vol.) 3

Unsure 10

_________________________

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. Clark left out of poll. Here we go again.

That's one way to keep Clark's numbers down. Don't list him

For what it is worth, here is a report about a November Wall Street Journal poll that included Clark. He came in 5th in that one.

Clinton 41%
Edwards 14%
Kerry 10%
Biden 5%
Clark 4%

http://rawstory.com/news/2005/WSJ_Poll_McCain_beats_Hillary_by_1111.html

[Douglas Carpenter]

21. I guess he fitted in with ...

Someone else 1

None (vol.) 4

All/Any (vol.) 1

Unsure 7"

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. It's a blatant form of Push Polling. Look at this:

These results come from a firm that regularly does polling in a number of states.
Strategic Vision: http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/results.htm

Here are some of Strategic Vision's results based on polling done inside individual states regarding the 2008 election. All of these polls were taken AFTER the November Elections. Note that Clark comes in ahead of Biden and Bayh and Richardson and Vilsak and Warner in all of them and even inches out Kerry in one of these States. Note that these polls were all taken after the explosion of free publicity Marc Warner got after Kaine won in Virginia. The States included are diverse.

Gore was included in these polls which I have no problem with. I also have no problem with Gallup leaving him out because Gore (while maybe leaving a door open) has said that he does not intend to run, which none of the others have said. There is no sound reason for Gallup NOT to list Wesley Clark while listing a number of other Democrats who Clark consistently polls higher than. The results of polls are known to be influenced by the question asked. If the poller does not even present Clark as an option, the message being sent is either that he has no interest in running, or that he is a less serious candidate than all of the others who they bother to list.


NEW YORK
"Below are the results of a three-day poll of registered voters in the state of New York. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in New York, aged 18+, and conducted December 2-4, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

30. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Democrats only, candidates' names read to respondent to select.)
Hillary Clinton 43%
Al Gore 12%
John Edwards 10%
John Kerry 7%
Wesley Clark 6%
Joseph Biden 4%
Ed Rendell 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Russ Feingold 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 11%


WASHINGTON
"Below are the results of a three-day poll of registered voters in the state of Washington. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 registered voters in Washington, aged 18+, and conducted December 2-4, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

17. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Democrats Only)
Hillary Clinton 38%
Al Gore 14%
John Edwards 10%
John Kerry 7%
Wesley Clark 6%
Joseph Biden 4%
Russ Feingold 4%
Bill Richardson 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Undecided 11%


GEORGIA
"Below are the results of a three-day poll of registered voters in the state of Georgia. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 registered voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted December 2-4, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

24. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination whom would you support (Democrats Only)?
Hillary Clinton 33%
Al Gore 13%
John Edwards 11%
Wesley Clark 7%
John Kerry 7%
Mark Warner 6%
Joseph Biden 2%
Evan Bayh 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 16%


FLORIDA
"Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted November 25-28, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

12. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 34%
Al Gore 13%
John Edwards 10%
John Kerry 8%
Wesley Clark 6%
Mark Warner 5%
Joseph Biden 3%
Bill Richardson 1%
Russ Feingold 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 15%

MICHIGAN
"Below are the results of a three-day poll of registered voters in the state of Michigan. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in Michigan, aged 18+, and conducted November 18-20, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

22. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Democrats Only)
Hillary Clinton 35%
Al Gore 14%
John Edwards 10%
John Kerry 7%
Wesley Clark 5%
Joseph Biden 4%
Russ Feingold 4%
Mark Warner 3%
Evan Bayh 2%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 12%

[AmericanDream]

27. I agree... it is stupid to leave clark out... nt

[skipos]

20. And this list is dominated by DLCers too. So what?

We all know these polls don't mean anything right now, that Joe Lieberman lead these kinds of polls before 2004, that no one even heard about Bill Clinton before 1992.

Right now most people are voting for the names they recognize the most.

[Douglas Carpenter]

22. well yes

but we can guess that at this time there is no ground swell for Kerry or Edward since they have a fair degree of name recognition.

But things can likely change. What is somewhat different with the Democratic poll than with the Republican poll is that Hillary's lead in both the registered Democrats' and the insiders' poll. I am not a supporter for Hillary's nomination and I don't think she would be a strong candidate against McCain. But, I think it is fair to say that she is the front runner at this time. Of course three years now--things could be quite different.

[jefferson_dem]

24. I agree that public polls at this point are virtually meaningless,

and respondents express preferences largely based on name recognition.

However, this is an "insiders" poll of activists, consultants, operatives, etc - those who know how the game is played and are familiar with the competitors. That being said, since they are "insiders" they are not necessarily attuned to the pulse of the rank and file, grass roots...

[tritsofme]

33. I would imagine Clinton would appear fairly high in 1990 on such a list

of insiders.

Just as Allen right now is largely unknown to the public or GOP rank and file but is #1 on the list of insiders.

[Douglas Carpenter]

34. my thoughts too

I don't think it settle the question of who will win the nomination. But, even though Clinton had relatively low name recognition a in 90-91 there was a political buzz about him among insiders.

That sounds like a strong point for Allen and an even stronger point for Hillary.

[FrenchieCat]

25. These Corporate and insider polls, and the endless pundit chatter

is "their" way of determining who will end up as the candidate. No matter what the circumstances are, they ignore it all. National Security is the debate we are having, yet the top three have more or less none (unless Hillary as first lady was involved in her husband's "affairs). They want Democrats to lose.

Meantime, We think we choose.....but we don't.

I hate those assholes for having so much goddamn power and using it to make our country worse.

[Douglas Carpenter]

26. of course

but unfortunately an insider poll may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophesy. I think Allen would be a whole lot easier for any Democratic nominee to beat. But, if in spite of that he by some fluke wins, that's really scary. Just take a look at his record above.

[nickshepDEM]

28. Next step. Numero Uno.

We're comming for you Hillary. :)

[election_2004]

30. Oh great! A theocratic nitwit and a junkyard dog....!!!

May the deities have mercy on what's left of the free world... :(

[Douglas Carpenter]

31. yes and he is from Whittier, CA

Can anything good come out of Whittier?

[election_2004]

35. Not familiar with it....

But Senator Allen is scary enough as a Virginia resident...

[Douglas Carpenter]

36. Richard Nixon was from Whittier, CA

'Can anything good come out of Whittier" is a bastardization of Biblical quote.

[win_in_06]

37. I think Allen would be the most dangerous if he got the nomination.

[radio4progressives]

38. This is "InSIDE WASHINGTON" Propaganda - fuget about it... n/t