The Battle for the Exurbs

[marbuc]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/opinion/14texeira.html?th&emc=th

My apologies if this has been posted. I never believed exurbanites were any different politically than suburbanites, despite the numerous declarations to the contrary.


Washington — For some time now, conservatives have tended to see America's exurbs - those fast-growing counties at the fringes of metropolitan areas populated by legions of young families - as a source of Republican strength that will, over time, turn the Democrats into a permanent minority party. George W. Bush's strong showing in the exurbs in 2004 seemed to validate the thesis. When it comes to understanding exurban voters, Republicans just seemed to "get it."

But do they really? In the Virginia governor's race, Jerry Kilgore - a Republican who ran a bruising, culture-war-driven campaign against his Democratic opponent, Timothy Kaine - lost quintessential exurban Loudoun County, one of the fastest growing counties in America, by 51 percent to 46 percent. In contrast, John Kerry lost the county to Mr. Bush in 2004 by 56 percent to 44 percent. And even Mark Warner, Mr. Kaine's Democratic predecessor, lost Loudoun in 2001.

The same pattern can be seen in neighboring Prince William County, where both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Warner went down to defeat, but where Mr. Kaine pulled out a victory. Given that Mr. Kaine dominated Democratic strongholds like suburban Fairfax County, carrying it by 60,000 votes - a far wider margin than either Mr. Kerry or Mr. Warner were able to manage - Republicans needed big wins in Loudoun and Prince William to take back the governor's mansion.

[sui generis]

1. well by definition "ex" urb

means someone who has left the urban areas for a little more peace and quiet.

You can't live in a crowded city without being in touch with a huge variety of humanity every day. Most people realize that nothing they see on the streets with blue hair or a nose ring or holding hands or even that looks just like they do has any real impact on their lives; it makes you a lot more accepting of differences.

I would argue that ex-urbanites probably face "outsider" status themselves by some hard haired righteous bastards.

The more people are exposed to more people, the less inclined they are to be republican or neocon or socially conservative.

[marbuc]

5. I think exurbanites left the city or inner ring suburbs

for financial reasons and the desire for more space, and are not necessarily culturally intolerant. I think the author of this op-ed hit the nail on the head, these people probably trend conservative on money matters, but are not concerned with the "cultural war." Given the choice are probably more concerned with privacy than whether someone is considering abortion, or participating in a same sex marriage.

[spooky3]

2. here's a very simple hypothesis

A lot of exurbans DO fit the stereotype. However, as urban and close-in suburban home costs have been skyrocketing over the past 5 years or so, people of all incomes and lifestyles have to move out farther in order to be able to afford anything resembling a middle-class lifestyle. Since Democrats tend to have lower incomes than many Rethugs, many of them have to leave the city and close suburbs if they want to have a kitchen bigger than a breadbox, a garden, room for kids if they have or want them, or single story living if they are getting older or have family who are. So the Dems are moving out too.

[Botany]

3. A bit of a warning the exurb story was produced by in 04 by Rove

to show that * won the election fair and square. A lot of women in those
big exurb & suburban homes had college degrees .... a women with a
college degree was 75% + likely to vote for Kerry. Smaller % in the
exurbs but still many of those women care about the environment and
reproductive rights.

Yes, white males who live in those homes tend to vote repug but
changing the core massage of the democrats to curry favor with
those voters the party will lose it's soul and base. A lot of those
white males will drop bush like dirty underwear when their son is
killed in Iraq or their wallets are hit.

The super rich forget them .... (although they do use their money
and power to manipulate elections) .... they love bush.

We are the party of values, and love the troops, have faith and respect
other's right to have their faiths, care for the environment, education,
jobs, trade, out sourcing, and energy.

3 Predictions
Bush will not finish his term .... Jeb knows he has already said
running in 08 is out.
the stolen election will be front and center very soon
for us to win massively in 06 so as to take the dirty machines
out of the equation

[starroute]

4. There's a mixture of things at work here

My own observation is that exurbanites are a mixture of at least two very different groups -- the affluent who want to get out far enough to have plenty of land and privacy, and the upwardly mobile suburban types who decide to go for more in the way of housing and other amenities by trading off for a longer commute.

The first group is traditionally Republican but is growing somewhat alienated from the present-day Republican Party, particularly over environmental issues. The second group is more up for grabs -- do they go with the Republican claim that the American Dream lies on the path of lower taxes and less government interference, or do they stick with the Democrats on the issues of education, environment, consumer protection, etc.

The "compassionate conservative" Bush of 2000 was finely tuned to reel this latter group in on both sides of their concerns. But the play-to-the-far-right-base Bush has nothing at all to offer them. They're quality-of-life voters, and the Democrats would do well to aim their pitch along those lines.

[dogfacedboy]

6. My Exurban Experience

Two years ago, we moved from the North Side of Chicago to an old town 50 miles NW of the city. Except for some development going on nearby, we are at the far edge of Chicagoland. We came here to get more house for our dollar, the type of house we wanted(a nice old one), and a little more space. I had spent my entire life in Chicago. My wife came from a small town in Ohio, got her education in Chicago, then stayed there to work. She was no longer interested in staying in the city, and I needed a change myself.

Anyway, we got out here and I was pleasantly surprised to find more progressives/liberals/Democrats than I expected, and more are arriving daily. It's still a R stronghold, but these R's out here are not NeoCons, and don't seem too happy with the status quo. I live within Hastert's district, and in his last election he still got about 72% percent of the vote. A good candidate has challenged him in elections, but as we know, it's all about the money. Hastert brings much pork home, and that's how some folks vote. I don't believe it will ever turn around to the point of Dems being a huge majority out here, but I think it will come to reflect the 50/50 divide in America, and I think this will have happened by 2008 or 2012.