The problem with 39% - It can't get much worse, expect a MSM rebound

[kid a]

Believe it or not, the MSM will do its little ditty, dance its little dance, puff on its mirrors and paint * a pretty picture as he swaggers through years 2, 3, and 4 of his second term.

Only way is up for * from here.

Maybe he'll do Oprah, break down in tears, and get a double digit boost.

[tuvor]

1. Or maybe it'll be just a dead cat bounce.

[johnnypneumatic]

2. he could always get on his knees and testify...I'm born again again

and ask for forgiveness again. "Ah'll quit drinkin' again, and end mah evil wicked ways..."

[newyawker99]

24. Hi johnnypneumatic!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[John Q. Citizen]

3. This is just the begining of the slide. Wait until the investigations

start producing indictments. There will be a feeding frenzy thaat will make the Clinton years look tame by comparison.

It will get so bad, that he might even experience a pity bounce around Xmas of next year.

[frankly_fedup2]

4. Or maybe they can get some planes to fly into a nuclear power plant

or two or three. Like I stated below (or above), Mother Nature is doing a killer job right now. Also, things can always get worse. I learned that a long, long time ago (personal situation). I even said it out loud. Then something worse happened. Now I never even think nothing can get any worse. I feel by saying it I doomed myself to be open to more tragedy. Bad Karma!

[ThoughtCriminal]

5. The other 60%+ can get madder

There's a substantial political difference between "slightly disapprove" and "Strongly Disapprove".

[Carla in Ca]

7. Yes, a lot madder

I protest with Code Pink OC every Wednesday night. Each week, including tonight, more and more people are responding positively. We hardly get any really nasty comments any more.

[Psephos]

6. Oh, it can get worse...much worse

As I recall, Congress was polling under 20% in 1993.

Peace.

[Erika]

8. Wait until the poor freeze this winter

because they can't afford heat. It will get much worse.

[DBoon]

9. Yes, it can get worse

Nixon got down to 24% before he resigned.

[belle]

19. Taft in Ohio is down to 15%. Not saying he *will* go lower, but

he certainly *can.*

[Lexingtonian]

10. where did you get that magical belief from?

Maybe my crystal ball is defective, but it's telling me that there's no way up.

All sarcasm aside, and without wanting to put you down, you just don't know what you're talking about.

We're in a phase where Bush is in a net constant decline of 1% a month. That looks to go on until 32% is reached and broken through late next summer. After that point it's much harder to predict but still downward, probably bobbling its way to the low 20s. At or under 30% amounts to political irrelevance.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I almost always agree with you

Not even close this time. I concur with the original poster, we're close to realistic bottom level no matter what happens with Fitzgerald. The soft upper layer of GOP support has been peeled off, but it gets geometrically thicker and more stubbornly partisan in a hurry. As long as 75+% of Republicans approve, Bush will stay put in the mid-to-high 30s at low, and then creep toward 50% as the news inevitably improves next year. I expect him to be campaigning furiously alongside GOP candidates a year from now.

[Lexingtonian]

18. Plame isn't a factor for now.

Average people consider it an insider fight, they don't see how it affects them.

"As the news inevitably improves next year"...perhaps, but not in a way that bolsters Republican beliefs.

Bush's polling ceiling is 49%, his 'handling terrorism' rating. He's never been able to affect where it is, i.e. lift it. Each major Al Qaeda attack that kills a lot of people in the West runs his ratings to it, then drops a demographic. It's a ratcheting downwards. It's a number/rating associated with magical faith, really. 'Leadership' and such assessments are always identical with its numbers.

Bush's overall rating runs asymptotic to a line of slope -1.0% or -1.1% per month since late 2000 or 2001. That's ~1.2 million voters a month giving up on the cause he represents. That's the dying away of a Party and a conception of the U.S.A. in mainstream society.

If you really want to get technical, the next chunk of the electorate is 6-7% and is moderate Republicans. There are 5-6 major policy areas, i.e. polling areas aka metrics. As a bloc, moderate Republicans model as cost/benefit decision makers. Bush is under pressure from people inside his Party and events to do stuff that isn't agreeable to moderates while he still can. Moderate Republicans split with Party hardliners on retention or modification of the AMT, overturn of Roe v Wade, defending DeLay and the web of corruption, political viability of staying in Iraq without the cover Britain gives, and militarily continuing occupation in Iraq (aka 'freedom') when the constitution is rejected or becomes irrelevant (i.e. Iraqi civil war breaks out).

I like my chances on all these things leading to hardline/moderate splits and moderates walking away during the next six months to a year.

[kid a]

12. ok - I'll keep track and see who's "magical belief" falls out

"That looks to go on until 32% is reached and broken through late next summer"

I don't see this happening. I don't think you know what you're talking about, either.

I predict an upward move through the holidays to an overall approval of aroud 45%, 46% in Feb. Two more threats, a trip to Iraq, back to NO a few more time, and a holiday concert with country music stars. I'll check back with you and see whose "ball" is right.

[Lexingtonian]

13. Sure.

I'll put money on my scenario.

[enigmatic]

14. Nope

His core base is 35 percent; I expect when the indictments are handed down and we see just how many in the administration are nailed we'll see 30 percent before too long.

[deadparrot]

15. I agree...don't get too upset if it goes up.

I think we're hitting the basement. If things get even worse, then we might see support erode into the low-to-mid 30s, but I think a solid third of the country would support him in anything.

[IndyJones]

16. I don't know. If there is another terrorist attack, I could see him

pushed out of office. I can see his numbers continue to fall. It can get worse for him. God knows it has for us.

[OneTwentyoNine]

20. Yup,Bush and his thugs have mouthed off about terrorism to much...

It won't work as a tool for their side anymore. After trying to pin as much blame as possible on Clinton for 9/11,saying a vote for Kerry/Edwards would be like voting for terrorism and then the Bush favorite "fight em over there so we don't have to fight them here" line of BS.

They've dug themselves a deep terra hole,its not a plus factor for them anymore.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. I'll be surprsied if bush finishes the second term

quite frankly, the GOP will be looking for ways to get rid of him, legally, and contitutionally... before long

(in fact I suspect the BBC story of conversations with god are the first step in that direction)

he is putting at risk their whole smelly agenda

[TheWatcher]

21. It's Very Disturbing To Think That 39% Of Americans

Are Ignorant Nazis.

Let this Nightmare End. Soon.

[OneTwentyoNine]

22. Oh it could get alot worse than 39%.....at least with honest polling

Even rabid Bush bootlickers here in Kansas are getting fed up. Its many things but gas prices are the killer--its affecting even the most loony toon RW religious idiot in the wallet.

Each day also brings the doom and gloom than natural gas prices are going up at LEAST 40% maybe 50% this winter. No explanation why,their just going up. People are getting real tired of Bush and his Nazis.

[npincus]

23. don't bet the farm on that:

The Miers Fiasco is looming, and so are Plamegate indictments.

Re: Miers: Dems AND GOP senators are getting their knives out... preparing questions on arcane constitutional cases and issues, to embarrass her in the hearings. i heard GOP aides were actively working on this, and don't think that Dems will go easy on her. So, she will look foolish and inadequate for the job, hugely embarrassing for Bush and validating the criticism: 'here's another incompetent Bush crony being put in a position he/she doesn't merit'.

Also, Fitzgerald is bound to release new-to-the-public and damaging information about the activities in the WH, whether or not indictments are brought forth (I believe and hope they will be).

Nope, I think we haven't seen the bottom yet. But then, my cup is usually half-full.