Ted Koppel's Nightline: 2 million could die in U.S.

[Wordie]

Last night, Nightline had a program on the potential flu pandemic that could kill millions worldwide, and as many as 2 million in the U.S, far surpassing the numbers killed in the previous worldwide pandemic, in 1918.

Senators Bill Frist and Harry Reid were featured on the Nightline program, commenting on the total unpreparedness of the U.S. currently to handle such an outbreak. (Guess "Brownie" wasn't doing a "heckuvajob" afterall.)

Read more lots more about this (including many links) on the ABC website here: http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Flu/story?id=1172638&page=1

And for an LBN thread on this topic (Please recommend it for the greatest page, so people can become informed about it.):
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Lindacooks]

1. What are those numbers by percentage of population?

Just curious...

[SteppingRazor]

7. Simple math...

U.S. population as of last census -- 295,734,134

2,000,000 divided by 295,734,134 = .000676
Or, less than one tenth of one percent.

[HERVEPA]

11. I believe you slipped a decimal point. It's worse

2,000,000 / 295734134 = .00676

i.e. 2/3 of a %, not .01%

that's about 2 out of every 300 people

[SteppingRazor]

13. Oops! My bad...

I ain't much on fancy book-learnin'

[Wordie]

20. That's the number for deaths, FAR more will get sick. eom

[category5]

32. Wrong math....it is .67% not ,067% ...compare that to Iraq War

but still very small.....

Iraq war dead 2000 / 275 million = less than .00067%
or 1 in 150,000

No wonder the anti-war movement is having a hard time
growing. It affects a very small percentage.

[Child_Of_Isis]

2. It seems to me that we get this "flu terror" every year. eom

[Wordie]

10. I know what you mean, but I think this one's different.

There was talk about how this could disrupt the worldwide economic system, interfere with food delivery, and delivery of everything else. And remember, Harry Reid was on the program too. This wasn't just another colored alert level scare. Please read at the link I posted. The UN and World Health Organization are taking this very seriously.

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. Let's not forget that the Spanish Flu pandemic, that killed between

20 and 40 million world wide (tho less than 200,000 in the US, I believe) had a mortality rate of only 2%. So far, the avian flu mortality rate (before mutating to person-to-person transmission) is at something like 70%. Presumably, as it mutates for easy transmission the mortality rate will drop, but if it drops to even 10% it will shut down entire nations, gas & food costs will skyrocket, markets will collapse, hospitals will be overwhelmed as tens of millions will vie for limited medical help.

It could concievably rival the Black Death of the 14th century.

[Wordie]

22. Both Frist and Reid were talking about those sorts of possibilities

last night on Nightline. This is truly something we have not experienced before, nor is it even concievable for most. For the TWO leaders of the Senate to come on MSM and talk about these sorts of predictions, means we should take this seriously, imho. This is not a Bush admin terror-hype sort of thing, as far as I can see.

[RaleighNCDUer]

25. Makes me wonder if they know something we don't.

Like notoriously close-mouthed China concealing the news that the jump has already happened. It took months before they admitted to SARS.

And I haven't been feeling so good myself, lately.

[mike_c]

64. when the pandemic starts, no one will be able to conceal it....

By definition, a pandemic is a global event. Even a local epidemic would be tough to conceal, and since avian flu is such a powder keg, the Chinese-- or any other gov't-- will call in WHO at the first sign of becoming an epicenter.

[Wordie]

27. 55% death rate right now...(NEW links)

From a related ABC news story:
http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Investigation/story?id=...

<snip>
"Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."

[RaleighNCDUer]

31. Thanks.

I think my 70% might have been from the first outbreak, before they knew what they were dealing with.

55% is scary enough.

[Wordie]

34. Apparently, some of the numbers are changing day-to-day, so we both

are probably right. And yes, either number is scary.

[SaveElmer]

33. This is where we can thank god for evolution...

In order for a virus to spread successfully it evolves to a form that will not kill its host. If the strain and is too virulent, it will kill off its host before it has a chance to spread. Therefore, what you usually see is the virus mutating to a more spreadable, but less deadly variety. It does this to survive.

[Silverhair]

44. Problem with that.

Evolution is NOT intelligent, it just is. When a species has isolated population groups, (Tribes in the case of human hunter-gathers)a virus that mutates into a highly contagious and rapidly, highly fatal form will burn through the available supply of hosts and will then die itself. However, modern humanity is ONE BIG, BIG, tribe, so such a virus has about 6 billion hosts that it can run through before it gets hungry. With such a generous supply of hosts, the virus is NOT under pressure to mutate to a less deadly form, only to a more contagious form.

Or, you can think of it as evolution's method of controling extreme overpopulation of a species. If it helps, you can think of Earth as being Gaia.

[itzamirakul]

19. Flu will kill one, FEAR will kill one million, nine hundred and ninety-

nine thousand.

[Wordie]

29. Best antidote to fear: KNOWLEDGE + PREPAREDNESS

[Child_Of_Isis]

54. Think pau d' arco. eom.

[Turbineguy]

3. 2 million?

OK just a wild guess; a large proportion of those will be poor. The republican wet dream. Political and ethnic cleansing.

Do NOT expect the bush administration to do anything exept stocking up on Tamiflu for themselves.

[HughBeaumont]

4. Jim McDermott: "Fear does work, yes. "

"You could make people do anything if they're afraid. "

NARRATOR: "And how do you make them afraid?"

REP. JIM MCDERMOTT: "Well you make them afraid by creating an aura of endless threat. They played us like an organ. "

[AntiCoup2K4]

8. Jim McDermott is a very wise man

Thank God we still have one politician in this state who hasn't become a corporatist tool. Unfortunately, I don't live in his district.

[renie408]

17. Horse flu jumping to dogs....

I am familiar with the GOP keeping Americans scared and therefore more likely not to change boats in midstream.

But it is significant that they have discovered a strain of flu that jumped from horses to dogs. It is sort of like the avian flu in a way. It means that flu viruses are becoming more aggressive in the way they mutate and adapt. You do not typically worry about your dog catching something from your horse or vice versa. And people don't worry about catching stuff from them because usually cooties tend to be more host specific than that. The flu is a hard virus to create a vaccination for anyway because it can mutate. Now that there are strains that are jumping from species to species, it really COULD be scary.

[AntiCoup2K4]

5. The fear campaign on this one is even bigger than the smallpox threat hoax

Bottom line.... if they tell you that they can't handle flu any better now than they could in 1918, they're either lying, or they're planning to deliberately fuck things up.

Not to dwell on conspiracy theory 101 too much, but any good global conspiracy doctrine references plots for intentional global de-population. Amazing that these are the same fucking idiots who are against birth control, isn't it? Which means they must really love watching people suffer and die.

Of course the Katrina "response" pretty much proved that.

[Wordie]

12. The difference betw now and 1918: 1. globalization 2. higher population

With globalization comes an exponentially higher threat of lightning-fast spread of the disease. And there are a lot more people all over the world, so a quicker spread stems from that factor too.

AND, since this threat is entirely new, NOBODY (anywhere on the planet) has a natural immunity to the flu.

I am as cynical as the next person about these terror threat messages, and how the Bush administration has played on our fears, but I think this time the threat may be genuine.

And, whatever global conspiracy plots may say, just looking at worldwide population levels, from an ecological perspective, suggests that this is a valid threat.

[Silverhair]

46. Yes, a lack of knowledge of how works makes some people think

in terms of very ignorant conspiracy theories.

[renie408]

18. The equine flu that jumped to dogs produces a temp of up to 106

for 21 days. We treat dogs pretty much the same way we treat people and they are saying this thing is going to kill a significant number of dogs.

I wouldn't blow off a strain of flu that could cause a pandemic. Flu viruses are adept at mutating and there is now evidence of viruses that are jumping species. And not just that, think how disimilar horses and dogs are systemically.

I am not sure what we can do about it, but this is the exact kind of thing that could cause HUGE problems.

[Silverhair]

45. Might I suggest you learn more about the flu virus?

You would then quick thinking in terms of conspricay theories.

Try John Barry's book about the 1918 flu. It has some excellent chapters that describe how the flu virus mutates.

Some things don't give a care (Because they are mindless.) about human politics. Flu is one of them.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

6. As scary as this is

even if you don't get it or lose loved ones, our lives (and pocketbooks) could be very affected. Stores and schools will close.

Bad times.

[FuzzyDicePHL]

9. Good thing

this flu isn't being seem primarily in gays, or our gov't wouldn't even acknowledge it existed.

[SaveElmer]

15. Pull back a bit...

This is definitely something to take seriously but a few points are worth noting.

1. Very few people have been infected thus far...under 200.

2. There have been so far no confirmed cases of human to human transmission.

3. The NIH is about to start human trials of a vaccine that has been developed. While general distribution of the vaccine is a ways off, companies have been given what they need to rapidly reproduce the vaccine once it is approved.

4. This is something that is not going to appear here immedietely. The virus will have to mutate to easily transmit itself human to human, and then has to make its way here. This has not happened yet.

5.It does seem as though countries are now taking this seriously and are taking the necessary steps to see that it does not become a pandemic.

[clintoncomeback]

23. The writing is on the wall, this will happen. The world has not had

a flu epidemic for a long time. H2n2 I believe was the last really virulent strain that swept through the U.S. We need to figure out a way to head this off at the pass, because it's very hard to predict what strain will be the "one".

[SaveElmer]

24. I'm not saying it won't...but

All information needs to be presented. There are steps being taken to ameliorate the situation. It has not as yet become easily transmittable human to human, and a vaccine is being developed. There appears to be time to head this off at the pass. So while it is necessary to get people to take this seriously, it is also not necessary to make people think there is nothing being done about this, or to think that they are gonna contract it tomorrow.

[Wordie]

26. Frist said we do not have the production capability we need. eom

[SaveElmer]

28. Yet...and

I believe he was talking about capacity not methodology. My understanding is the vaccine will be produced by the same methodology as other flu vaccines, so once approval is given, no "retooling" will be necessary to produce the vaccine.

There is still time to ramp up the capacity...and it has obviously come to the attention of those with the ability to do something about that.

Again, I am not saying that this should not be taken serioulsy, but needs to be viewed calmly and with all the information.

[RaleighNCDUer]

30. OTOH, look at this.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/30/birdflu.dru...

Do not underestimate the ability of a virus to mutate.

The Spanish Flu could kill in as little as a day - that doesn't leave much of a window for treatment. And if Tamiflu is to be effective it needs to be administered within two days of infection, at a time when most people are just starting to think 'this is not just a cold'.

To stop an epidemic we need to have the capacity to saturate a population with Tamiflu and/or vaccine - and if the virus has mutated away from the vaccine, the treatment will be only marginally effective.

The only real safety will be in simple, personal actions, like stay home, avoid crowds, mask, and hand-wash many times a day.

[renie408]

35. Bingo

I don't mean to...ahem....beat a dead horse, but flu viruses are getting more aggressive in the way they are mutating and jumping species.

[Wordie]

37. Important to understand: tamiflu treats symptoms only, not a vaccine.

It does not eliminate or kill the virus.

[Silverhair]

49. Not precisely correct. It inhibits the ability of the flu to

spread to other cells when it ruptures a cell in the body. So it must be taken early while the flu is not in very many cells. Once the flu has spread to many cells, then Tamiflu is not effective. It can be taken as a preventive - one dose a day. But that is a lot of Tamiflu.

[Silverhair]

48. In 1918, there were many cases of people who

got up in the morning feeling fine, and had died of the flu by noon.

[Wordie]

36. Not certain if all that is accurate; agree there should be calm approach.

The difficulty is that there seems to be a very small gap between complacency and panic. We ALL need to be aware of this, so that we can take whatever personal steps we need in order to be as safe as we can possibly be. So those who are shrugging this off, as yet another red-light-green-light terror alert sort of situation, need to be convinced that it is a genuine threat. They believe it is just more kooky, weird, conspiracy-theorist, tinfoil hat kinda stuff.

And, in order to convince them, you have to give them the info about WHY it is so scary. So, FINALLY they see what you are saying, but at that point, become so alarmed that they OVER-react. I do not envy government officials at this point, as they are in somewhat of a no-win situation.

The problem then becomes: how to make sure people are informed without unduly alarming them. It is also an issue because of the importance of our country doing everything we can in order to protect us as much as possible from this threat. I read somewhere that one of the congressmen from Alaska was opposed to funding this research and prevention effort, because of the terrorist threat, which he percieved to be much greater. If the majority of people are unaware of this looming problem, these kinds of funding issues could go unnoticed, to the detriment of our entire country.

So...how do you let people know, without making them feel TOO frightened? I just don't know. Perhaps some, "What you can do about this?" sorts of posts would be good. Action is a good antidote to fear. I personally am just not knowledgable enough about public health policy myself to make those sorts of posts effectively.

[renie408]

38. Good points, all.

I would guess that you have to just keep informing people of the symptoms and the situations and ways they might be exposed over and over. Perhaps not some big splash of information, but more the drip of water on a stone release would be better. That way, it eats its way into the conciousness instead of hitting in a big, scary way.

[Wordie]

40. It would be good if it would only work that way...slow understanding. BUT

it does seem that it is a sort of all-or-nothing sort of thing. There seems to be a resistance to understanding this AT ALL, until finally it penetrates, and then, as I said, there will be OVER-reaction.

I first heard about this nearly a year ago, and when I mentioned it to someone...sigh. Not the response I would have hoped.

And, if I heard about it almost a year ago, then so did government officials, surely. In that time, did they take ALL the necessary actions to make sure all possible was being done for prevention? OR, did the publics' inattention to the matter allow them to ignore it?

It seems to be a circular problem.

[halobeam]

69. I saw the debate on cspan ....HARKINS AMMENDMENT...

See my post in this thread... I am still trying to find out if they voted on it, if so, did it pass, and if not, then when ??

The debate was informational, frightening and necessary. Check it out... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Wordie]

73. Senate approved it...final version to be worked out with House next week.

Per this article:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/ar...

<snip>
The Senate voted Thursday to provide $4 billion to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to stockpile anti-flu medicine to protect people against bird flu and prepare for a potential outbreak.

By voice vote, senators agreed to tack the proposal onto next year's $440 billion defense spending bill. The Senate still must approve the overall defense bill, and a vote is expected next week. Then, the Senate must work out a final version with the House, which did not include money for bird flu preparedness in its defense bill.

[halobeam]

74. I understood you, right up to here:

"Then, the Senate must work out a final version with the House, which did not include money for bird flu preparedness in its defense bill."

If amendment was approved, and the bill itself has to pass (being voted on next week)... how is it they must work out "final version" which doesn't include amendment???? Wouldn't the final version have the amendment included??

[Wordie]

76. Actually, that wasn't me, but a quoted source ,but I think it means

that although the Senate voted for and approved the flu amendment to the bill, the version of the bill previously passed by the House did not include it. So that's why they have to work out a final version: to see if the House will pass the flu amendment too.

[halobeam]

77. Ahh... thank you....

[Silverhair]

47. Once it becomes easily H-H contagious, it WILL be here within

one week - Max.

[halobeam]

70. See my above post....

I saw the debate on this on cspan within these past 48 hours... CDC said it would take half the time to get here than 1918 flu... that took one year to complete it's circle, so that would be about six months for all the earth. So, United States in a week? Maybe we are first stop... but they seemed to think, we'd all know about it first, because it would be in Asia first.

[Solon]

16. yeah, and twice or three times that many are going...

to probably freeze to death this winter, I doubt a pandemic will come THAT quickly, but even if it does, it will pale in comparison to what we do to ourselves through apathy.

[Wordie]

39. The 1918 pandemic INFECTED one in four in the United States.

This is not something to be ignored. And I agree that there are MANY ongoing problems that we should be addressing ALSO, but not instead of, this potential pandemic.

[Solon]

55. Not saying ignore it...

but we shouldn't be panicking either, that's the point. Look, this winter, we'll have almost 40% of Americans not able to afford to heat their homes. Let the CDC and appropriate agencies try to figure out solutions to hypothetical pandemics. Right now we have other things to damn near panic about, like next months NG bill, and whether there will even be ENOUGH NG to even last the winter.

[Wordie]

61. Oh, I am surely not suggesting we panic! ...and do you have a link to heat

figures you mentioned? I had no idea the problem was that severe.

My way of looking at this is that BOTH are issues of high significance, about which we as citizens should educate ourselves. And then encourage our representatives to take action, based on what we have learned. That, after all, is how a democracy works.

[SoCalDemocrat]

21. Flu shot is full of themerisol/mercury

I would not rush out to get one if you don't need it.

[FourStarDemocrat]

57. They're not using thimerisol in vaccines any more from my understanding.

Even if they did contain minute amounts of mercury, as some vaccines used to, imo the benefits would outweigh the risk.

I've found that flu shots have been very effective for me and my family (which includes two children)over the years in preventing illness during the flu season. I would recommend that as many people as possible particularly people who are at high risk from the flu symptoms such as the elderly and children with asthma get a flu shot.

[loudsue]

41. Everything Wal-Mart sells is from China. This could spread quickly.

A laborer in China sneezes on a crate, and loading dock worker who loads that crate gets infected.

Then the dock worker infects more crates as he loads the ship, and then the ship crew and the dock workers who unload the crates in America get infected.

Then more crates carry the infection, and they go to Wal-Marts everywhere.

The Wal-Mart shipping workers get infected, and then the employees, and then the customers....whose kids go off to school, and the rest is history.

Could take weeks, now that such a huge percentage of American consumer goods are made in China.

[Silverhair]

50. Faster than that.

Flu virus mutates the fast H-H variety. Wal-Mart in China factory worker gets the flu. It spread rapidly. Visiting Wal-Mart executive gets the flu, flies back to USA, exposing the other passengers.

Or flu spreads to a different factory and a different American executive take it back. Wal-Mart isn't the only company in China.

Or it goes to a different country that does business with China, then to the USA.

The 1918 flu has been traced back to Russell, Kansas where the original mutation occurred, and THREE men who left there (draftees) to report to the Army carried it with them to their training camp. The rest is history.

[leesa]

42. Just what the Neocons need! Too bad all those world-class microbiologists

dropped dead. So sad the deadliest flu virus vials went missing.

[Silverhair]

51. That conspiracy theory has been debunked here on DU.

There is a genuine world class microbiologist who regularly posts here as pandemic_1918 and he has show that CT to be baloney.

Evolution is mindless and not capable of paying any attention to mere human politics.

[otohara]

43. Whoopie We're All Gonna Die

and it's one, two, three.... This is the least of my worries - media moves on to flu fear mongering

[Lorien]

58. Yet they ignore Climate Change, which could kill a hell of a lot more

well within our lifetimes (all of us, if lack of oxygen from total forest and ocean ecosystem failures occur). I wonder how many die of smoking related illnesses every year? How many from Cancer? How many from reckless drivers? I agree-a flu pandemic is one of the least of my worries (and I have a weakened immune system)!

[Wordie]

62. This shouldn't be looked at as a case of the dueling disasters...

or a contest to determine which one is most significant, imho.

There are MANY issues that need to be addressed, true. And just because there are previous issues that need attention, does not mean we should ignore new ones.

[Lorien]

66. I didn't say ignore it; I said that I'm not worried about it personally

I AM worried about climate change because it WILL kill me -and most of the rest on this board-in our lifetimes (you can argue if you want, but I have friends in Antarctica who have been studying it for over forty years, and I have a pretty good handle on what's coming our way. The media is mum because they wouldn't want us to panic). Most of the talk about the Avian flu is nothing more than media fear mongering. The government should ALWAYS be prepared for a serious pandemic of any kind, but I doubt that this particular flu is something to get worked up about. It's only killed 100 people worldwide-far less than the common flu, which kills over 100,000 Americans every year.

[Wordie]

68. I guess I meant "trivialize." And I'm worried about climate change too.

At this point it seems to me though, that of the two of them, the flu threat is more imminent but also more circumscribed; the global warming threat is more catastrophic overall, but farther in the future. How do you KNOW that the flu warnings are fear-mongering? Did you read the link in the original post and some of the additional links that have been posted in this thread?

I realize this is in some ways like the hurricane threats in the hurricane hazard-prone areas. The residents have heard them so much, that they start tuning them out or discounting them. So, when a really big one really IS on the way, a certain percentage take a blase attitude and don't evacuate. Recent events have shown us that attitude can be a big mistake.

I can't see any reason not to concern ourselves with both, is what I was trying to say. It isn't an either-or situation.

[Cha]

52. My paternal grandfather

died in 1918/1919 in the Spanish Flu Epidemic.

And I hear that he was a strong person..course they didn't have any knowledge back then of antibiotics.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/

[Silverhair]

56. Antibiotics don't work against viruses.

They are effective against bacteria. Big difference between the two. Basically, we are as vulnerable to the flu now as they were then. Our main line of defense will be personal hygiene.

[Cha]

72. Ooops! Thanks for the info..

Personal hygiene and will our immune systems play any part?

[gkhouston]

79. unclear. IIRC, an odd aspect of the 1918 outbreak was that

a lot of the victims were healthy young adults. It was as if their immune systems over-responded to the virus and killed them. The young and the elderly, while miserably sick, were actually more likely to survive. Bizarre, no? Quarantine and personal hygiene are your best defense. And prayer, if you go in for that sort of thing.

[chefgirl]

80. Excellent link there, zidzi

I believe thats the show I watched about two weeks ago on PBS, and I highly recommend it to everyone.
WELL worth the time to watch.

Speaking as a bona fide TinFoilHatter, I admit to being somewhat cavalier about this 'new threat', until I watched this show and learned a LOT more than I ever knew about Influenza.

For example, as we already know, this particular strain has already jumped from species to species, and has been seen in humans via bodily fluid contact. The ONLY piece of the Pandemic puzzle that remains is to see it jump from birds to humans via airborne means.

Once that happens, all the scientists and Doctors that I saw agree, a true pandemic will occur.

I dont scare easily these days, but this is some scary stuff this time.

-chef-

[OnionPatch]

53. This makes it even scarier

I just posted about this on the other thread. They are saying that H5N1 is getting resistant to Tamiflu! http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/30/birdflu.dru...

They mention something called Relenza. Sounds like it might work better than Tamiflu. Where would one even get the stuff? Can you buy it over the net?

My husband, a biologist, is also worried about this flu.

[Mr_Spock]

59. If you know anything about history, it's not a matter of if - it's when.

I talk about this with my boss from time-to-time - we both know that the chances of having anther flu pandemic are nearly 100%. Whatchagonna do? The flock needs to be thinned once in a while

[Neshanic]

60. Heard on news that Tamiflu is not as effective as thought.

[opihimoimoi]

63. Warnings that bad shit is coming to America go by the wayside with Bush

He rejects warnings.....

[Wordie]

65. Well, that's the thing. He's mentioned this several times already.

He pooh-poohed global climate change, and failed to recognize the potential problems with hurricanes (or even the problems that had already occured), etc. etc. etc., yet recognizes this as a threat. So what's up with that?

[opihimoimoi]

67. I guyess Haliburton don make money with meds...so Bush not pushin it

If we think about it tho, preps for sars makes sense...its an insurance...if it comes, we got the meds.. if not, its a cheap price to pay.....go figure, lol

[Clarkie1]

71. October issue of National Geographic (one of my favorite magazines)

has an excellent article on this topic as well.

[Humor_In_Cuneiform]

75. This virus doesn't discriminate between

young/old, or poor/rich, or presumably Republican/Democrat.

So *'ll prolly pay some attention.

[MISSDem]

78. Why worry about it? What can be done? Live a healthy

lifestyle and when your time comes your time comes. Oh and WASH YOUR HANDS OFTEN. (the flu expert said this is the best way to keep from getting the flu - wash your hands).