Can Edwards pass Dean in NH?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

I really expected a bigger bounce for Edwards after Iowa. In the ARG, he's only up two points. Both the Zogby and Suffolk University polls shows him basically stalled in single digits. Gallup seems to be the only poll where he shows any significant gain - 5 pts. Meanwhile, with the exception of the Suffolk poll, Dean appears to be in free fall, finally slipping to 3rd, behind Clark, in the ARG. But with no bounce for Edwards, will Dean fall far enough? If Edwards can't make a strong showing in NH, doesn't that undercut the argument that he can 'win anywhere in the country'?

[Guaranteed]

Dean isn't in a "free fall." He's stopped the bleeding.

And, like Zogby says, we should wait until two days after last night, or even this morning, I'd say, before we start seeing real results in the polls of Dean's PR offensive. You'll see Dean start going back up in the polls, especially considering his domination of the debate.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. Well, it's possible, 2 days from now, that the polls will change, but now

they show Dean in free fall.

I haven't heard anyone else describe Dean as 'dominating the debate' lol. Certainly the consensus among impartial observers seems to be that the debate was a no-win/no-loss proposition for everyone.

[Guaranteed]

8. You oughta watch it again.

Dean only had two answers that weren't absolutely spectacular.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. I'm just pointing out that your opinion is not a common one

among folks who are not Dean supporters.

Debate transcript

[Guaranteed]

17. Well, of course

And I understand that the other candidates had great answers, too...certainly Edwards did very, very well, even against a couple of torpedo questions.

But, I must say that I'm not alone: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=169405

[Name removed]

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[reprehensor]

2. Remember...

Edwards' caucus numbers were inflated in Iowa, due to Kucinich supporters 'going over' because of the 15% rule.

Kucinich got called on it last night, and he looked ridiculous trying to play it down.

Edwards was in reality mush closer to Dean in real support numbers.

And there was some 'push polling' going on, too.
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/Politics/ThisWeek/Kerry_Dean_calls_040117-1.html

Those nasssty Hobbitses!

[Nicholas_J]

21. Edwards numbers wee not inflated by much

As Kucinich didnt have more than one percent in the caucuses, which still would have placed Edwards above thirty percent on his own merit.

[surfermaw]

31. In the caucus I saw ,Edwards... didn't get D.K people

I watched the CSPAN Caucus,Dennis people tried to get the Gep. people to join with them and they wouldn't. If I saw correctly they didn't join with Edwards, can't speak for the other C.

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. I wish, but no, it isn't gonna happen.

Dean's stopped hemorrhaging, and I see a solid 2nd-place win for him in NH. What's I'm hoping for is a 3rd-place finish over Clark. :)

[Name removed]

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[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. But what if Edwards finishes in single digits, as now seems likely?

Won't that show his appeal is not broad enough to challenge Bush?

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[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. I've included links to all the major polls - you don't need to guess

about what is in them. It is today's actual poll numbers that form the basis of my question.

ARG 11 - but only 2 pts up since Iowa.

Zogby 7 - no gain since Iowa.

Suffolk 7 - "Edwards continued to level off"

Gallup 12 - the only bright spot, up 5

[spooky3]

55. bear in mind (I posted details earlier this week)

that Survey USA, which claims to be the most accurate, did *not* identify the right % for even one candidate within the margin of error. I don't believe the other polls did either, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

So it's possible that Edwards has almost no support in NH, and it's also possible that he's doing very well.

The polls are hampered by low response rates, non-random sampling, self-selection bias, and factors relating to the process itself, such as the high number of undecided's, the many people who aren't strongly committed to a candidate, the difference between saying what you'll do and getting out to the polls and doing the same thing, the tendency of many voters to be influenced by events occurring right up until the day of the primary and our inability to know now what those events are, etc.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

56. I don't know what you are talking about.

' that Survey USA, which claims to be the most accurate, did *not* identify the right % for even one candidate within the margin of error. I don't believe the other polls did either, but please correct me if I'm wrong. '


I don't understand what relevance what you are saying has to our discussion here.

By the way, the polls DID accurately predict the order of finish in Iowa: Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Gephardt.

[beaconess]

14. I don't think so

Edwards was never expected to do well in NH, especially up against three New Englanders. Even making a showing there is a good thing for him.

[Name removed]

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[bearfartinthewoods]

22. considering how little he has campaigned there and that common wisdom,

last week was that he'd skip NH and head south right after iowa, i think he can only win. i'll be surprise if he doesn't break into double digits though.

[Cuban_Liberal]

10. Not underestimating him.

Just trying to take a hard, sober look at the numbers. Clark continues his slide, and I think 3rd is a definite 'possible' for us, and it keeps us alive for 2/3. :)

[Name removed]

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[Democrats unite]

26. The sad reality for you is...

Clark will be on top of Edwards in NH. Don't get me wrong I happen to like Edwards, it's just the way it's going to be.

[Demo Gog]

29. Well, my friend

I guess we will find out in a few, short days who is correct. And for the record, I like Clark. But I think JRE's is going to shock some people with a 2nd place finish.

[PATRICK]

6. Edwards and "bounce"

He got none from the media for reasons dumb and nefarious, but no matter that. Iowa merely proved he had to physically work the crowds, a one man campaign, and that would achieve great results. The conclusion that that makes him the superior personal campaigner among other appeals, is something no one outside the camp of the converted is willing to consider.

Which means more work proving that hey, this guy can do it without all the other stuff the others have, the propping up, the excuses, the "experience", the owed allegiances. Yup, has to prove it the hard and genuine way and once into big states it may simply too hard to put the magic touch on millions more voters.

The fact that he has the attack meme of being "too young and inexperienced" is laughable. Simply, making contact and winning over voters is what it is all about for Edwards. Everyone has only a sidelong glance for what actually be the best, perhaps inevitable choice. Heads must be turned. I did not know myself if he could pull this off, but he has shown great signs that he may.

Nothing new there and no sense griping or worrying about it. Everyone has to earn this nomination, one of the nerve-wracking wonders of this particular primary season.

[bearfartinthewoods]

38. watching the tube, you'd be hard pressed to realize how close

Edwards 2nd place was to Kerry. and considering how far he climbed in a week, he should have had better coverage. i was expecting "a real horserace" type of spin but instead they seem to be pushing Kerry. oh welll...the media is what it is and any candidate that can't overcome that, ain't THE ONE.

[On the Road]

9. Edwards Will Improve, but Dean Has Bottomed

the meme on the scream has changed. Dean'll bounce partway back and finish a clear second.

The big race will be between Clark and Edwards for third. Neither will be killed by a fourth-place finish.

That will make the next round of primaries a very interesting four-way race. Kerry will be the front-runner but otherwise is in the weakest position regionally. Dean is the wounded challenger with the best organization and finances.

The fight will be to see whether Southern democrats take a shine to Clark or to Edwards. I haven't the faintest idea how that's going to shake out. They may each win some states.

All the planning for a quick strike nominee to unite the party seems to have gone out the window. It looks more and more like a drawn-out struggle.

[Guaranteed]

13. Sounds right nt

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. Your speculation is unsupported by the poll numbers.

Dean's unfavorable numbers are by far the highest of any candidate.

Howard Dean’s favorable is now at 31%, his unfavorable is 42%, and 27% are aware of Dean but undecided. Yesterday, Dean’s favorable was 33%, his unfavorable was 30%, and 37% were undecided. Of the 31% with a favorable opinion of Dean, 28% say they will vote for Dean and 32% say they will vote for John Kerry.

Kerry’s favorable is 77%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 9% are undecided. Wesley Clark’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 19%, and 32% are undecided. John Edward’s favorable is 56%, his unfavorable is 14%, and 30% are undecided. Joe Lieberman’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 30%, and 21% are undecided.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

And that is what will sink him.

[TLM]

18. I still think Edwards would be a PERFECT VP with Dean.

Imagine if Dean's fire and Edwards' compassion were brought together... both with a populist focus and priorities in labor and the economy.

They'd be a perfect ticket.

Bush would not stand a chance.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

25. I guess you mean 'would have been'

[TLM]

30. Nope... I still think Dean can win this thing.

And Edwards will make a great VP pick.

[Nicholas_J]

20. Too little time between events

Kerry was beginning to pick up significantly in Iowa before the caucus, Edweards less so. But two of the latest polls put Clark ahead of Dean in N.H. now, Dena running a distant third in one of those polls, and in anotyher poll, while Dean is in second place, Kerry has a lead of two voted to one for Dean in than poll and in the last two days Gallop has reversed and has Kerry with a significant lead over Dean. In only one polls has Dean remained at the same numbers for two days running and in the rest he is sliding down rather rapidly.

Franklin Pierce College

1/20-22

MoE4%


Kerry 30%
Dean 16%
Clark 14%
Edwards 10%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
other 0%
undecided 23%

American Research Group Tracking

1/20-22

MoE 4%


Kerry 31%
Clark 20%
Dean 18%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 7%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
others 0%
undecided 12%

Gallup Tracking

1/19-21

MoE 4%


Kerry 30%
Dean 25%
Clark 18%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 8%
Kucinich 4%
Sharpton 0%
undecided 4%

Zogby International Tracking

1/20-22

MoE 4 %


Kerry 30%
Dean 22%
Clark 14%
Edwards 7%
Lieberman 6%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0.1%
undecided 17%

check at:

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/NHPoll.htm

[Democrats unite]

23. I like Edwards but...

Nope not a snowballs chance in hell, will Edwards Beat Dean in HN

[Endangered Specie]

27. If he does, dean is toast

[Lady President]

28. No, but it's not a problem

I think Edwards will get forth in NH, but it doesn't make a difference to his overall campaign. Kerry and Dean are both neighbors of NH and Clark has spent several extra weeks there. Logically, these three candidates should be the ones vying for the top spots. A solid forth is all Edwards needs.

SC will be the first real test for Edwards. NH is just a way to keep his name in the news which a smart strategy.

[emulatorloo]

32. Edwards got the "nice" vote in Iowa

People at my caucus talked about how they were standing up for him because he was so positive in his campaign, with a big emphasis on how "nice" he was to the other candidates. For many this was their main reason for standing up for him.

If you have ever visited, you'll know that Iowans are really nice. . .I am no so sure that people in New Hampshire value niceness as much.

Sorry for my 2-bit punditry :) I feel like HOward Fineman or something

[surfermaw]

34. You are underestimating Edwards

Edwards is going to come in second , Dean third, and Clark fourth..For some reason the media is holding back on Edwards polls as the did in Iowa, with out the support of Kennedy for Kerry, Edwards would have won.

[emulatorloo]

43. I think Edwards is great and has a lot going for him

Sorry if that wasn't clear. . .I expect him to do well as this thing plays out, but just feebly trying to explain why he did so well in my caucus.

[Metrix]

37. More than visited, I grew up there

And if Iowa values niceness above all, it isn't the same place that I remember. Small towns are little pressure cookers of not-niceness. But I can see Edwards doing well there being able to relate one-to-one. From afar, I would say that Dean killed himself in Iowa when he mouthed off to the Iowa farmer at a campaign stop. Dean was a guest in that guy's community, and Dean didn't know how to behave.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

39. Love your small-town comments!

Ain't it the truth

[PAMod]

33. I'm not surprised Edwards has stalled in NH.

I don't think a bounce works the way you have indicated. It is the attention that you get from winning that brings the other people on board. If you really think about it, Edwards hasn't really gotten much attention - not when you compare it to what Kerry & Dean have gotten since Monday night, albeit Dean's has been 100% negative until last night.

Now Kerry's bounce - his bounce may be the all-time biggest Iowa bounce ever. I will have to look that up. He has gotten so much positive attention, his numbers have almost tripled in some NH polls. Maybe he ate up Edwards bounce.

Back to Edwards v. Dean, it looks like Dean has a certain percentage of solid support in New Hampshire (@ 20%), which is a number I couldn't fathom Edwards getting close to, especially with Kerry in the race.

But hey, I never would have guessed 32% in Iowa for Edwards either, so what do I know.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

36. I think you are right about the bounce analysis.

Kerry does seem to have the biggest bounce in history (just my subjective impression) but I think it has a lot to do with the whole arc of his campaign - presumed frontrunner, fall from grace, battle from behind underdog win -- it's just such a perfect story that the press can't control themselves, and it resonates with people.

The reason I thought Edwards would be getting a bigger bounce was that the initial headlines out of Iowa all read "Kerry, Edwards..." and Edwards' unexpected second place showing (or if you expected it like I did, his unexpectedly strong second place showing) seemed to be even more of a surprise than Kerry's win. But the media hasn't kept up with that story. It may be than Edwards has been as big a victim of the 'I Have a Scream' speech as Dean, because it ate up so much media attention that might otherwise have gone to him.

[paulk]

35. it could happen

One of the polls mentioned that a lot of Dean supporters were going to Edwards. If Dean continues to fall, perhaps enough of those abandoning him will put Edwards over the top.

Pre-debate, I thought Edwards would get a bounce, since he seems to do well in the debates. I'm not so sure now, I think the debate was pretty much a wash for everyone.

[genius]

40. Last night's AOL poll had Edwards in second place in NH and nationally

I'd say he's moved up.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

42. Link?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

45. Is this for real or are you spreading rumors? Link?

[AP]

48. Link:

http://www.electionguide04.com/virtual_primaries.adp

[Feanorcurufinwe]

52. That's an online vote, not a poll.

[AP]

54. Except that it's not clear how you vote, so it might be a poll.

It looks like a poll of AOL users, and they're not letting anyone vote.

So it might have some statistical relevance.

Clearly, AOL users are a unique demographic, but it is the biggest net provider out there.

[HuckleB]

41. I don't see it.

As it is, after the day that Dean had yesterday, I don't think any of the current polls mean a thing. There's likely to be some change for the positive for Dean after that.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

44. It will be interesting to see if Dean's drop ever slows

How low can he go?

[HuckleB]

50. Why yes it will.

Especially since it's been stagnant for three days now.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

53. Wrong. Specifically the 'reason' you give is just not true.

3-Day Results  	16-18  	17-19  	18-20  	19-21  	20-22  	21-23
Clark 	        20% 	19% 	18% 	19% 	20% 	19%
Dean 	        28% 	28% 	26% 	22% 	18% 	15%
Edwards 	8% 	8% 	9% 	9% 	11% 	13%
Kerry 	        19% 	20% 	24% 	27% 	31% 	34%
Kucinich 	1% 	2% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Lieberman 	6% 	7% 	7% 	7% 	7% 	6%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	15% 	13% 	13% 	14% 	12% 	12%
	  					
Sample size 	617 	617 	718 	811 	806 	712
	  					
Democrats 	432 	436 	511 	573 	558 	484
Undeclared 	185 	181 	207 	238 	248 	228
Undeclared (%) 	30% 	29% 	29% 	29% 	31% 	32%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Dean's number may not keep going down -- the one-day number
didn't today -- but it is simply inaccurate to say:
"stagnant for three days now"

[HuckleB]

57. How's that?

Please explain.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

59. LOL

[HuckleB]

60. Good. Laughter is healthy.

Besides, I love the fact that you obsess on my posts, even though your conclusions are incredibly suspect.

Keep smiling.

[Cuban_Liberal]

46. Dr. Dean's slide is over, IMO.

His poll numbers have stabilized, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them start going up a bit every day until Tuesday. I still think he will get a solid, 'respectable' 2nd place finish.

[HuckleB]

58. Don't say that.

The Kerry campers don't want to hear any of it.

[TexasSissy]

47. Sure. Why not? Probably won't happen, but it's a maybe.

In politics anything can happen, just about.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

49. Looks like the answer is YES. Dean and Edwards statistically tied

in the lastest ARG poll:

Dean     15%
Edwards 13%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[mohc]

51. As I mentioned in the other thread

This is also a 3 day average, with Dean falling 3 and Edwards rising 2, which means the daily for the 23rd almost certainly has Edwards ahead of Dean by a few points. We'll know when the numbers are out Sunday.