Raise your hand: Think other campaigns don't have delegate-swap plans?

[WilliamPitt]

*not raising hand*

Every campaign has a plan to make delegate swaps in places where they will caucus weak. Every campaign. They'll do it for strategic reasons, to undermine opponents, to game the thing to their ultimate advantage down the road. They will tell their people to go to other candidates, even to candidates that may represent opposing views, because on caucus day it is about strategy.

I'm surprised at the level of discord this DK/Edwards thing has raised, frankly. I'll be blunt: It smacks of naivete. This is election day, and the candidates play to win. None of them are saints, not even Kucinich. If you boil this down to a one-issue race, you are missing the boat that 90% of Iowa voters are preparing to sail on.

Elections. Feel the power, wear a helmet.

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. *does not raise hand*

I like the last line, especially! :hi:

[CMT]

2. I'm sure they do

mostly to stop Dean. But I honestly think this deal with Edwards will hurt DK in Iowa. I think many of his most devoted and peace-loving supporters (and I know several here in Madison, Wisconsin) will not be pleased. Already two friends of mine who support DK has called me terribly upset about this. I can understand if some people don't want to take my word for this since I am a strong Dean supporter.

[Lobo_13]

3. It's not the strategy that's puzzling

I know there is going to be some swapping going on.

It's just the match-up of DK and JE that's puzzling. This is a core group of people who feel strongly about the IWR. I'm skeptical that they're going to follow orders on this.

[WilliamPitt]

8. Perhaps

DK and crew think Edwards isn't going anywhere in the long run, and so this doesn't hurt them. Think about it: Throw support to Kerry? Dean? Gephart? Edwards is the best choice if this is the strategy.

Before you ask, I'm just blue-skying that. I have no inside data on this matter. I was press in that van, and they kept the finer points to themselves.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. Yep, that's what I think.

Kerry is too liberal, DK doesn't want his folks supporting Kerry, they just might get too used to it.

[Lobo_13]

But why do anything?

If he's going to throw support behind someone he thinks is not going anywhere, why bother? He's better off just riding it out and taking what comes.

Spoiling the top 4 is senseless, especially if you have to blow your image to do it.

[never cry wolf]

60. It DOES help him and

Helps Edwards as well. If a candidate at a caucus at a precinct does not have at least 15% support from the attendees there they get NOTHING. Say these hypothetical caucuses have 100 voters each, by this alliance if Dennis has 9 and Edwards has 7, Dennis is in there. If in the neighboring caucus Edwards has 11 and Dennis 6, Edwards is in whereas without this agreement neither gets anything from either caucus.

[Clark4VotingRights]

57. Hm, interesting points.

Actually, I didn't know the swapping was common. (Duh. I'm a rookie.)

But (while you're a Kerry supporter and may be biased :); I have
my obvious bias too), I do agree with part of this.
I don't think Edwards has the gravity to be the pres nominee.

He's shown us great enthusiasm and hope and ability to uplift
(which is very important) but not that requisite toughness.
Clark can be upbeat and presidential and tough all at the same time.
I haven't seen that from Edwards. We do need a tough guy to go
up against this regime.

He's not going as likely to get the veteran/military vote either.
(I know, they're not a unified block. Still...)

[arewethereyet]

24. Kucinich is not a one dimentional candidate

what is so puzzling ?

[AP]

38. K has his priorities in order. He can trump War and Class, and chooses....

CLASS.

No wonder he likes Edwards over the guy who can't even bother to have a tax plan that helps people who work for a living prior to the Iowa Caucus.

[DemBones DemBones]

50. Anyone who's going to fall apart because

their candidate can have a good relationship with someone who is not exactly like him is bound to be disappointed sooner or later. Some people are claiming to be disillusioned DK supporters online but I've yet to see anyone who I know to be a longtime supporter complain about this.

Besides, most of the people who caucus in Iowa are not working on a campaign, i.e. they're not hard core single-issue anti-war people. Will they "follow orders"? Obviously, that depends on them, but I suppose they'll consider the requests from the candidates they're supporting. They must be used to this sort of thing, after all.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

4. thank you

:)

[helleborient]

5. The problem is Dennis Kucinich spending months claiming he didn't do this

By all of the seemingly empty rhetoric about sticking to your convictions against all odds...and that pragmatism in political campaigns is wrong.

I can't imagine this will leave his image untarnished...he's willingly walked into permanent tarnish on his image, and a sense of betrayal from a number of his own supporters, for John Edwards. It is an interesting development.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

11. when did DK claim he didn't do delegate swaps at cacuses?

If Kucinich had decided to swap delegates with Dean, would all the Dean fans be upset?

[helleborient]

22. Speaking for myself, yes, I would question that as will...

Supporters of Dennis Kucinich here on DU lectured me for being a political pragmatist...and somehow Dennis Kucinich was more honorable by not being one.

Apparently, they were wrong.

[Zomby Woof]

56. Kucinich himself has always claimed being a pragmatist

Read Studs Terkel's intro to "A Prayer For America". He knows when to fight, and when to work together.

I am pleased with this, and have NO disillusionment about DK.

[helleborient]

23. Many supporters of Dennis claim he's an idealist, not a pragmatist...

So will the real Dennis Kucinich please stand up?

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

28. of course Dennis is a pragmatist

I'm a political pragmatist too. If we were all pie-eyed idealists, you think we'd be in the Democratic party? Party politics is pragmatism in action.

[stickdog]

32. You have created DK in your own image. Many other DK supporters

have done the same. Only their self-image is very different.

[OhioStateProgressive]

43. my take

Dennis became a political prodigy by dealing in backroom Ward Style political machinations...backroom deals on a handshake

Dennis is just a shrewd steel valley midwestern politician...it is what brought him fame early, and yes, he is a populist, yes he is a progressive...but yes, he is a politician and the whole idea is to win, or get closer to winning

[Lydia Leftcoast]

46. Hmm, and Dean supporters haven't

imagined Dean in their own image at odds with his stated positions?

[helleborient]

35. Then go argue with plenty of others who support DK and lectured me

Here on DU.

There's been months of vicious attacking of supporters of other candidates because they weren't voting their ideals...if they truly were, they would support Kucinich.

So...let me ask...are supporters of Edwards truly voting their ideals? If they are...then the Kucinich argument in favor of voting for Kucinich - you must vote your ideals - falls apart if they support Edwards instead of just going home or sticking with Kucinich through all of the rounds.

Oh well...I thought perhaps Dennis Kucinich was actually something he clearly isn't.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

40. Kucinich voters are STILL voting for Kucinich

Kucinich has NOT dropped out, he has NOT endorsing Edwards, he is STILL 100% against the War Against Iraq and wants to get the UN in and the US out in 90 days. Kucinich fans, like myself, are going to vote for him.

Do you know how a caucus works? Kucinich has suggested that his supporters cooperate with Edward's supporters to get as many delegates as possible for both of them. How is this anti-idealistic?

I bet that Kucinich fans and Edwards fans have a lot in common.

[goodhue]

30. he's a pragmatist

As I've been saying for months, much to the derision of media-feed DU'ers.

This is hardly news and not suprising. DK and Edwards are friends and both want to do well tonight. Tonight is as much about second-choices as it is about anything else.

[rucky]

42. Who said the two have to be mutually exclusive?

[Nadienne]

39. At a caucus

minutes before the final count, if everything I have done to make Kucinich viable in my precinct fails, I have two options: Leave and let my voice not be heard, or support another candidate. I will always stick to my convictions.

[HereSince1628]

6. You gotta link? Or is that based on the strength of your punditry?

[WilliamPitt]

9. Link

www.The StrengthOfMyPunditry.edu

:)

[WilliamPitt]

14. All jokes aside, here's a link: Dean caucusers swapping to Kerry?

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/primaries/iowa/articles/2004/01/09/caucus_night_vote_swapping_could_tilt_iowa/

Caucus-night vote-swapping could tilt Iowa
By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 1/9/2004

DES MOINES -- For the first time in decades, a quirk in the Iowa nominating contest on Jan. 19 -- vote-swapping on caucus night -- could determine the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest here, according to advisers for several campaigns who are mapping strategies to swing stray votes in the final hours.

With candidates required to win at least 15 percent of the voters in each precinct to survive, strategists assume a number of candidates will fall short -- freeing their caucus voters to support other campaigns.

Several campaigns are developing ways to swing support in some of the 1,990 precincts on caucus night -- to benefit their own candidate or to hurt someone else.

At headquarters for Howard Dean, advisers are working on an automated system that would let precinct captains dial in early tallies. Knowing how Dean is faring statewide would allow the campaign to advise its supporters to throw Dean votes in some precincts to another candidate.

Where the supporters of the low-performing candidates wind up, and whether the leading candidates have spare delegates to throw to other campaigns, depends entirely on how the numbers break in the first round of voting.

Dean voters, for instance, could be directed to shift to Senator John F. Kerry as part of a strategy to knock Richard A. Gephardt out of contention and create a more competitive race in New Hampshire.

[Cuban_Liberal]

16. I see that one.

Kerry does the heavy lifting against Clark in NH, if he does well in Iowa. Makes perfect sense to me.

[Lobo_13]

17. I'll debunk this right now

there will be no Dean to Kerry vote swapping.

Let's just say I have it on a reliable source.

[WilliamPitt]

18. 'K

But the larget theme of the article - that every campaign has vote-swapping plans in place to one degree or another - stands. Ask and ye shall receive.

[Lobo_13]

21. And I agree

I just don't think that Kucinich people are going to go along with it. They're more likely to break Dean no matter what the precinct captains say, or stay home.

Unless this is just some kind of jedi mind-trick where he wants his people to move over to Dean right off the bat.

[AnAmerican]

31. I disagree that DK backers have Dean as a 2nd ...

choice in most cases. Most of them see Dean for what he is...a centrist without a progressive bone in his body.

[Zomby Woof]

59. not only that

We see Dean as the huckster that he is. Like Truman said about Nixon, "He is a goddamned liar". :-)

[helleborient]

25. Thanks for supporting Dennis is a politician just like the others...

Like I've thought, this garbage he is somehow above the real political horse-trading is simply that...garbage.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

51. Do you know what your sniping sounds like?

And note that I am not calling you a right-winger, because I know you're not--but it's like when the Democrats tried to block Clarence Thomas's nomination to the Supreme Court and the Republicans came back with, "I thought you guys were FOR affirmative action."

I've never seen Dennis say that he was above political horsetrading. After all, he's been in Congress, and that's how one survives in Congress.

This is a tactical move, not an ideological betrayal. You can rest assured that Dennis is not going to come out with something like, "Just kidding on the Iraq business, folks."

One thing people do in Congress is work with people they don't agree with on every issue in order to achieve a common goal (e.g. Wellstone and Domenici on mental health issues).

In this case, Kucinich and Edwards, who are friendly with each other, are adopting a tactic to keep both of them in the race.

[HereSince1628]

52. Do you know if cell phones are going to be allowed in the caucus?

Really effecting voter swaps among campaigns across the state is going to require some real coordination not just trust.

My experience in Iowa is all the leading campaigns will try to win over supporters who don't make the threshold. When you say the game 90% of Iowans are playing in that percentage is appropriate.

I am not at all sure that most of Iowans in the trailing campaigns will be playing in a coordinated statewide effort to swap support precinct to precinct across the state. It can be best seen as something of a holy grails of caucusing. It takes discipline and communication would make that easier. Cell phones weren't around when I was in Iowa.

[Cuban_Liberal]

15. That seems an unneccessarily rude way of asking.

:wtf:

[HereSince1628]

20. Will is quite capable of playing with academics

but I'm sure he values your support.

[Cuban_Liberal]

26. It wasn't support.

It was an observation about common civility.

[HereSince1628]

36. sorry, I forgot I was in GD04P

[WilliamPitt]

37. Jerk

:)

You've been here since 1628. You should know better.

:)

[HereSince1628]

55. Erudite

[AnAmerican]

7. Well said Will

Thanks for a moment of sanity amidst all the hang-wringing over this "non-story".

[mmonk]

10. I make no claims

other than DK and Edwards seem partly on different spectrums. Given that, it would seem from ideological standpoints, DK supporters might not want to like it. I express no discord. I know everything is tactical (and I'm not a fan of caucuses).

[goodhue]

13. *not raising hand*

No hands here.

Fox news has not been telling the truth about anything since Bush took the White House. Do not begin believing them now.

Dennis is NOT endorsing Edwards and is NOT bowing out.
There is a strategy deal that is part of a larger strategy.

[DuctapeFatwa]

19. "Politics is not about issues and ideology" is not just a slogan

It's the way the game is played. After poverty, it's the main reason half of those eligible register, and half of those registered vote.

[stickdog]

29. Many DK supporters are just now

attaining your level of cynicism.

[DuctapeFatwa]

48. Call it cynicism if you like. Others prefer to call it

"age and experience."

It does not mean that the people who supported Kucinich are stupid. Many of the things in his brochures are good and sound ideas, and could mean fewer deaths.

If they are disillusioned over the issue of the US colonization of Iraq, they should re-read Mr. Kucinich's plan. It is only cosmetically different from those of the other candidates; he proposed that the US have the crusaders operate under the UN letterhead, and wear blue hats.

[stickdog]

27. Other candidates aren't courting true believer anti-war progressives

while making their deals with a hawk.

[Walt Starr]

33. Whether they do or do not is irrelevant

What matters is the effect it has. Most of those with delegate swapping strategies don't go around publicly announcing it, especially when many idealists back one of the candidates and will not accept a pro-IWR candidate regardless.

[GumboYaYa]

34. Of course they do, but they do not issue press releases

announcing it to the world.

A lot of the "horse-trading" between candidates has typically happened on the local level with local powerbrokers manipulating the process.

IMO, issuing a press release announcing his intentions may hurt DK. Many of his supporters are the die-hard believers who are the most principled of all of us Democrats. Political maneuvers like this will turn off many of these folks, particularly when they are being asked to vote for a pro-war candidate.

[goodhue]

47. press release

was after the MSNBC news story which came from MSNBC embed and was spun to a life of its own by the media. but its all good. until this afternoon I had not seen DK in media since January 9.

[edzontar]

41. Well this is a very weird development...

Kucinich runs as the 'real" antiwar canddiate, then makes a vote -deal with one of the war supporters.

Weird and disappointing.

[Gman]

44. "Naivete"?

Naivete has been the main theme here since candidates began throwing their hats in the ring.

I don't mean to sound mean, but too many people here don't even know their own state party rules meaning, they don't know how delegates are selected in their own state much less anywhere else. It seems to be a common belief that the end game is to "win" the most votes in the primaries and well, we'll worry about November later.

This is predominantly about delegates and NOT about who gets the most "votes" in the voting booth which are not always the same thing. This is about getting yourself or someone you support (i.e. NOT the candidate specifically) out as a delegate to the national convention by hook or by crook. You do it any way you can using the rules of the party in your state and some grass roots organizing. Its about coalitions and the classic phrase that "politics makes strange bedfellows".

There's been threads here about who has the most Super Delegates and quoting some article. However, the published "count" does not take into consideration that the state may not even go for that candidate, at least in theory. Nothing is certain until presidential preferences are registered. It may well turn out that Congressman Joe Blow is a Dean supporter, but Kerry or Edwards swept the state. All of a sudden, Congressman Blow is now a Kerry or Edwards Super Delegate.

Last spring and summer I posted lots of general information about how delegates are selected to the National Convention, which this is all about. I know because I was a Clinton delegate in 1992 in NYC. Most people don't listen, though. So I just sit back and watch and sometimes shake my head.

This is not intended to be mean, but if you're going to play the game, its always best to know the rules.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

45. Thank you, Will

for injecting a reality check into the discussion.

[Terwilliger]

49. more importantly...stop thinking that politics is about ideals

cuz that has nothing to do with anything

[WilliamPitt]

54. Ideals without victory

are useful for feeling good about oneself, etc. Without the ability to transfer ideals into policy by way of victory, ideals themselves don't have a lot of muscle. Sad but true.

[DuctapeFatwa]

61. And the victory of putting a Democratic face on the PNAC strategies

is unlikely to make erstwhile supporters of Kucinich, or Clark, or any other candidate feel good about themselves; it will, however, increase the chances that the guy making a bundle on homeland security is not bush's cousin, but the cousin of a Democrat, and more Democrats will get well-paid, resume-making Washington jobs.

[Zomby Woof]

53. Edwards is my #2

No conflict here. The swap is the best political news of the day.

I have noticed many neophytes during this election. I hope that it has been a learning experience.

[Sly Kal]

58. No I don't

and I am not naive.