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Edited on Mon Nov-15-04 07:58 PM by Longgrain
Since this is more of a light hearted, rhetorical post, meant more as an entertainment, I was originally going to post this in the Lounge, but since it does propose a political question regarding the electoral college, I’ll post it here. Mods, please move if desired.
My best friend is a independent, Green party voter; I’m a life long Dem. It seems every time we get together we end up discussing politics (I am refraining from using the word arguing here, since I’ve leaned not to argue with her, she usually wins.)
I’m not looking to start a flame war regarding third parties, this is more an argument against the electoral college, which I think has to go, and it seems many of you here at DU tend to agree.
The problem with my friend and I is that, I find myself agreeing with her all too often regarding politics. About the only thing we disagree on is the importance of third parties in our two party system. I believe the two party system works, and that as long as we have the EC, third parties will never be grow powerful enough to win nation wide election without either caucusing with or overthrowing one of the major parties (Though off subject, I admire what Nader and Cobb are doing right now in NH and OH).
My friend asked me to elaborate. I asked her to imagine what it would be like if there were three parties in every election. Either one party would end up taking half the electorate with the other two splinting the other half, or they would end up with a third of the vote each and no party would ever get a majority of the vote ever again.
She just said voters need more choices than the two parties we have now.
Now, I’m not trying to win her over to the Dem side (though I would love that), I’m just trying to explain to her why I remain a Democratic voter.
I’ve had more time to think it over, and am formulating an argument, in the form of a fictional example. I though I’d humbly present it here to all you at DU first and let me know what you think. I don’t know if an example like this had be pondered before here at the boards, I know we’ve discussed what would happen if the EC vote was tied or if neither candidate received enough EV votes to win, but this case is a little different as you’ll see toward the end.
I apologize before hand if this is too long, it’s a strange story with many twists and turns, but it could happen….
THE RED-HAIRED CANDIDATE
Lets say there were three major parties of more or less equal political clout in this country, let’s simply call the parties A, B, C, and for the sake of the matter let’s say there are exactly 500 EC votes up for grabs this election, meaning the winner would need 251 votes to win.
So it’s election night and the votes start coming in, all is going smoothly and the vote counts realistically reflect the exit polls (I did say this was a fictitious example, didn’t I).
Party A is the progressive party on the ballot, and it’s candidate, let’s call her Audrey, is favorite to win. She draws her support from the working class people, the educated, and the disenfranchised. Her base is in what we would call the blue state (Though I’ll call them the A states here), States with large population centers and many electoral votes.
By eleven o’clock election night, Audrey has clearly won 250 electoral votes, only one vote shy of the 251 she needs. She is also the popular vote winner with about 51% of the popular vote, which would give her a slim but clear mandate to govern. There is much toasting and cork popping among her supporters, but the vote is still too close to call in several other states. Nevertheless the A party supporters celebrate and go off to bed for a good nights rest.
The B party is the conservative party in this election and their candidate, let’s call him Buster, carries most of the ‘red states’ (hereby called B states). His base is the wealthy, the religious right and people with far more fingers than teeth. Like the A party candidate, Audrey, he does well across the board, even in the A states, but he only ends up with 180 EC votes and only 33% of the popular vote.
The reason is Caroline, our C party candidate. She was certainly the underdog going in to the election, constantly polling far behind Audrey and Buster, and her party is the least financially supportive of her campaign, preferring to siphon funds into the senate, house, and gubernatorial races--races they might have a chance of winning. The C party is the moderate party in this election, appealing to both those who preach family values and those who cherish civil liberties. Caroline has her supporters, but little hope of beating the other candidates.
Now this is where it gets interesting. A few months before the election the B party called for a referendum banning people with red hair from having children after Rush Limbaugh said that red haired people were social degenerates and that their genes should be wiped from the face of America. The referendum ends up getting on the ballot in about twelve states. The B party and the their candidate rejoice seeing this will bring out the vote for their wing-nut agenda.
But C party candidate, Caroline, just so happens to be a redhead and is infuriated over the referendum. Seeing she has no chance of winning the election, she uses her funds to campaign only in those sates where the referendum is on the ballot deciding it is more important to her personally to defeat this unfair measure, than it is to become president.
She gets huge support in the few sates she campaigns in, but the results are close, she often wins with only 34% of the vote, but Caroline manages to win 70 EC votes for her efforts. But since she barely even made a showing in the polls in the A and B states, she only wins 16% of the popular vote.
So, the next day the jubilant A party voter who went too bed early election night turns on his computer to find his favorite web site--ApartyUnderground.co--jammed and down from too much traffic. Unable to figure out what’s going on, he stumbles down stairs and turns on the cable news, trying to find out what happened. On Fox News, Hannity’s head is spinning in all directions spewing pea soup all over the studio, shouting that B candidate Buster really won and that C candidate Caroline’s votes were clearly meant for Buster. On MS NBC, Chris Matthews is growling about how A candidate Audrey ran the worst campaign he had ever seen and how gracious Buster has been so far in his defeat. On CNN, Carvel is crying on Tucker Carlson shoulder, cursing the B state of Colorado for not passing the ballot measure the would have split the vote giving Audrey the one vote she needs to win. The following numbers scroll across the bottom of the screen…
Audrey EC votes 250 Pop. 51%
Buster EC votes 180 Pop. 33%
Caroline EC votes 70 Pop. 16%
Needed to win: 251 EC votes.
Now it would appear that Audrey is the peoples choice for president, but no. We have an electoral college here in this country. No candidate has the number of votes needed to win.
The next month or so is a media circus. Audrey starts calling for recounts all over the country, but she is demonized by the media, and her party shows her very little support, both Buster and Caroline refuse to concede to her. Eventually, the case ends up in front of the Supreme Court where Audrey’s lawyers try to argue her case as the winner. But the Chief Justice, Susan Dey O’Connor, rules that, while Audrey has the plurality of votes, she does not have the majority. The vote for president will go to the House of Representatives.
Now here’s the twist. Apparently, the ‘red-haired scare’ perpetrated by the B party has been going on for some time now, and the C party has taken it on as their pet cause. Due to this, of the 400 members of congress (I’m assuming this fictional America still has fifty states), 201 are of the C party, with the rest roughly half and half A and B. They not only have a plurality, but an actual majority. Despite some half-hearted campaigning to win support for Audrey from the A members of congress, Caroline wins the vote.
With nothing she can do, Audrey graciously concedes the election to Caroline say “it’s to heal the nation“, and, despite rumblings from her supporters that she should have continued fighting, she quietly returns to her seat in the Senate.
Buster refuses to concede, feeling he was not the loser in this election. His poppy gets him a job as the CEO of the largest oil firm in Texas which he quickly drives into the ground.
As for Caroline, with only 70 EC vote and 16% of the popular vote, but with the Supreme Courts approval and 201 votes from the House, she is sworn in a the first red-haired woman President.
So that’s about it. I’m not trying to win anyone over--merely trying to defend my point of view--but what did you all think.
Could this happen?
I wouldn’t like to be Caroline for the next four years, she better be very good at reaching across the aisle, especially toward the A party who will probably perceive her as a spoiler…but, would she have a mandate to govern, I mean, would the vote of congress qualify as a mandate?
Just thought you guys might be interested….:headbang:
Edited a bit fer Grandma
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