My electoral map prediction

[LilKim]

The only states I'm a little iffy about are Virginia and West Virginia. And maybe to a lesser extent New Mexico:

http://www.diecastaircraftforum.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=27481

(If the image link doesn't work I have Kerry 343, Bush 195.)

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Arkansas will go blue

Kerry support is unreal in NW AR, the most conservative part of the state.

[LilKim]

5. Arkansas going blue

That'd be something. I know everyone was blown away by that poll a couple of weeks ago showing it tied. I hope that wasn't a fluke.

[fujiyama]

2. I'd say

this is doable. I'm not sure about VA, WV, and CO though.

I've been unsure of NM the last few days, but I checked the new registration statistics and democrats are doing well. I think we'll squeak by.

[LilKim]

4. I think we'll get CO.

The margin there has been so close for so many months that I think in the end undecideds and turnout will have it breaking our way.

Good to hear about NM. That state is just too cosmic to ever be Republican.

[serryjw]

6. I checked the new registration statistics

How did you do this? Can you do they same for all states?

[LilKim]

10. If you're asking how I did the map,

I used latimes.com. They have a map where you can click the states and predict who'll get them.

[serryjw]

13. No...I'm useing PBS...BUT you said

you checked new registrations...How did you do that? Is there a website that tells us how mnay 1st time voter registrations by state?

[fujiyama]

12. Go to

www.mydd.com

He has the new statistics for NM. My guess is it will be pretty close again (remeber Gore won by only 366 votes last time) but nowhere near as close as last time.

[Cascadian]

3. Florida? Virginia? Nevada?

Virginia is a relatively conservative state plus don't forget bro' Jeb is in Florida. Nevada is also a Republican dominated state.


I hope you are right.

John

[LilKim]

7. Virginia, Nevada, Florida

As I said, I'm iffy about Virginia. I'm willing to gamble on Nevada, though;-)

But I'm damn sure about Florida. Every time I think of the way black voters there were fucked over in 2000, the line from CCR's 'Born on the Bayou' keeps playing in my head: "Son, don't let the man do what he done to me."

Black people (and the other disenfranchised there) are going to vote or die trying to.

[belle]

8. AZ's still possible too, no? There was an article about the Navajo vote..

the other day, suggesting it might be enough to tip the balance.

I dunno about AK, or the Virginia at this stage. I think NM will probably go blue. anyway am feeling better about MN and even OH, although I still worry. FL...who the hell knows.

I mean, on the whole, it all comes down to dirty pool. Without that factor I'd enthusiastically agree with your model. At this point I honestly can't predict anything at all, except that 1) Bush cannot win honestly, certainly not by more than the barest of margins, and 2) no matter how it turns out, there's going to be a big ol' mess of angry people, and very possibly court again.

[idiosyncratic]

9. I like mine, but the margin of victory isn't quite as large

That doesn't matter . . . it is VICTORY that matters.

[Dob Bole]

11. I'm a little more conservative about it....

pardon the expression. I'm confident that we'll win Ohio and New Hampshire, and that will be enough...hoping for more Southern states, especially Florida and the Virginias, but not too sure about them. We'll see what happens.

[Lilli]

14. I like those numbers!

Welcome to DU! :)

[jerryster]

15. Check out this link

http://www.slate.com/id/2108751/

Results at this link are encouraging. However, I must admit that I find their numbers more realistic than the ones you have. Again and as always I would love to be wrong and have your numbers be right.

[shayes51]

17. very encouraging!

[jerryster]

18. Hey, shayes51

Welcome to the DU!

[Trahurn]

16. I'm very encouraged But................

I certainly like what I see but what data are you making your predictions on?

[idiosyncratic]

20. The map gives you poll results to guide you through . . .

Poll results show up if you hold your mouse over the state for a while.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

In some cases I fudged a little based on news from here or elsewhere.

[RememberTheCoup]

19. LilKim, want to add your input to mine?

I'm trying to get input from all DUers on a single thread in order to come up with a consensus for each state:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1234699